George001

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

your overcompensation in the other direction from a year ago has been absolutely extraordinary to witness

It has been a non winter, +5 AN with well below normal snow here. My area doesn’t do well in strong and super ninos. The strength of the El Niño -PDO, and well AN Atlantic SSTs (especially bad news for the coastal plain) were overlooked. It’s not overcompensation, it’s telling it like it is. I do think next winter will be a more favorable pattern here though, should be another La Niña rather than this strong nino crap. I do think big winters are still on the table even with CC, but this just isn’t our year. It is what it is, it looked like it might become good a couple weeks ago but that didn’t pan out.

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

makes sense, possible overextension as the Aleutian Low forms, then retracts and the pattern becomes much more favorable. not really worried about that ATM

extended guidance also completely missed this blocking spell

We’re back to tracking patterns rather than concrete threats in mid Jan….. ratter.

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea especially in NJ but we are New England where a blockbuster or 2 will bring us up. 

Still will be incredibly difficult to avoid an 8th straight AN temp winter. We keep kicking the can, first it was after Christmas, then mid Jan, now it’s Feb. Lets just call it what it is, a ratter.

54 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Interesting that the NavGem still shows a snowstorm coming up the east coast on the 19th-20th period. 

 

This is a major development, I’m back in. When the Navy is the most NW that’s a huge red flag and should not be ignored. I figured it was over when we lost the Navy and CMC yesterday, but now we have a shot.

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty much all guidance has that high now...it's just a question of whether it presses down enough at the same time we're getting that low ejecting from the MS and TN valleys. I currently don't expect much of anything in SNE right now out of that setup, but it is something to keep an eye on. NNE could easily get out of the "torch period" unscathed if things break right.

SE ridge and cold lower levels…. Kev may get his wish.

The mesos nailed this one. They are very good (NAM especially) with dealing with mid level warmth, whenever globals show the mid level warmth staying mostly offshore and the NAM has it penetrating well inland, most of the time it means a lot of sleet and or ice is coming. I haven’t followed too much the past couple days, but I remember globals having this mostly snow while the NAM and RGEM had a lot of sleet and ice.

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we were even discussing how far west the ridge and trough axis was for the storm today and thinking there was a good chance it would come NW which it did. This one doesn't have that look. This one is all about separating the two broken PV pieces and that trend hasn't been favorable the last few days.

That storm went so far NW it caused ptype issues. We need that kind of NW move for the Friday storm which is a long shot.

Even in March 2018, which was an amazing stretch of winter (I don’t remember seeing bare ground until like the 1st week of April), but even during that stretch we rolled snake eyes a couple of times in my area.  The last nor’easter was shunted just south, the 1st one hugged the coast and it rained. However, it didn’t matter because the favorable pattern lasted for a month, and we got so many dice rolls that we didn’t need all of them to hit for a great month. Now 2015… that was the perfect combination of 99.9th percentile luck and a 10 week window of opportunity (great pattern in the aggregate).

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't say "the best", you did. But if you don't think coming up with essentially nothing out of these 3 patterns doesn't have any luck involved, than I am at a loss.

Oh there absolutely is some bad luck involved. The way I look at it is that with every favorable window, you get a shot to roll the dice. Yes, you are correct that the past 3 rolls of the dice not panning out is bad luck (sub 10th percentile luck, you are absolutely right here). I just think the bigger problem is that the pattern has been so bad in the aggregate that we aren’t getting enough rolls of the dice. That’s the bad pattern, 5 weeks of close the blinds and then a 1 week favorable window this Jan. Last March was a 1 week window. Last Dec was 2 (correct me if I’m wrong, I remember getting 2 weeks of well BN temps, just didn’t work out snow wise then which is bad luck, we agree on that). When’s the last team we had an extended window of opportunity? It’s gotta be March 2018 right? 

Regardless, some of the long range guidance is hinting towards a longer window in Feb. hopefully that holds up and we get a 2012-2013 style comeback, which was one of my “what could go wrong” analogs (warm winter overall, but cashed in on the favorable pattern in the second half of winter). If we can get a 1 month instead of 1 or 2 week favorable window, I think that will go a long way.

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, snowfall is a lot or luck.....which I know rubs some the wrong way. But just to be clear, this season has been warmer than I thought. Its a combo of that and some bad luck, so far.

I agree to an extent, but don’t feel that last season and the 1st half of this one are the best examples of this. 2021-2022 is actually a good example, my area got lucky to finish AN snowfall that winter. I still don’t consider that a good winter because it melted so fast, but the fact of the matter is I got more snow than I probably “should” have that winter when taking the overall pattern and temp profiles into account. The pattern was not good and it was a mild winter, we just happened to get a blizzard in the one favorable window sandwiched between a sea of warmth.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the first half of winter was warmer than everyone imagined....including Raindance and probably Omega if he's being truthful...never published anything.

Idk I and some others were concerned about the super nino driven pac jet flooding the country with warmth combined with the well AN ssts near the coast. That’s why I said +4 to +5 AN for winter in my forecast with 20-30 inches of snow. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean the season in the aggregate when all is said and done.

Fair enough, If we finish like +2 AN or something and still end up below 20 inches at BOS, it would imply we got some bad luck in a favorable Feb-Mar pattern. Since we are +5 right now, it would need to cool down quite a bit in Feb and Mar to prevent this season from ending up a full blown torch like last winter.

I’m going to disagree that temps haven’t been an issue. BOS finished Dec around +5 and Jan so far has been around +5 as well. That’s a bad pattern, it has been 5 weeks of garbage and a 1 week favorable window.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think @donsutherland1may have the right idea....he had like 27" at Boston. But the big question is what @Donald Sutherlands Eyebrowthinks?

Honestly I think Boston’s looking at another ratter (below 20 inches). The MJO is going into the warm phases and the blocking is breaking down. Yeah we got unlucky with this favorable window, but this winter so far has been 5 weeks of well AN temps and 1 week of a favorable pattern that we whiffed on, and then it is going to get warm again. I hope I’m wrong, but it has been a complete non winter so far, +5 AN temps and well below normal snow. The only winter that started this poorly and ended up good was 2012-2013, and it took a historic blizzard to do that.

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looking at climo data, we are still pretty much on pace with 1958 if Boston could grab like 3" today. This is the time of year where I begin to weight climo data more heavily than the outlook....gotta start to look at the scoreboard after halftime.

For a bit I thought Bos had a decent shot to sneak over 40 inches, but they are looking cooked now. 

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

From a pure accumulation stand point (like My BY finished with X inches on year ) you could / not likely  (thou many aren’t punting January at all  ) unless they live SE of 95 

The initial point of my post it that some talk about a respectable winter with regard to enjoying snowy periods throughout the winter and not just a final accumulation total 

It cannot be a respectable winter with well AN temps, below normal snow, and no retention when we do get storms. It has been a long time since we had a month straight of snowcover.

This entire winter has been a furnace, and now we are looking at yet another warmup after the 20th threat leaves a lot on the table. Maybe we can avoid a total rat with a better pattern in Feb/Mar, but let’s call it like it is. So far, the Pope has been right about this winter. We need some changes FAST for 1/20 to salvage this, if that is meh we aren’t getting anywhere near average snowfall. He deserves an apology.

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Won't be the last this year. 

Maybe not, but you can’t punt both Dec and Jan and still end up with a respectable winter. 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m not saying it can’t come back to something decent but it looks like we will waste another high end potential pattern with a low impact event. That’s the tougher pill to take. It’s not just a missed opportunity but a missed high end one. 

Yeah, it’s not looking good. Gfs and Canadian took a step back, and we lost the Navy. We couldn’t really afford that for a big solution. Im going to give it a few more days just in case it comes back, but if we don’t get at least a decent event by then I am out on this winter (if you can even call it that, it’s basically been November the past 2 and a half months).

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Come on man. We can only go off what it shows right now. It being 5 days out isn’t a scientific reason it’s going to improve.

You aren’t wrong, but the margin of error is fairly large (around 200 miles 5 days out IIRC). If there is large scale agreement that the storm is headed towards Bermuda, that’s outside the margin of error and therefore it makes sense to say we arent getting shit. However, this storm is fairly close. It’s about 100 miles SE of where I’d like it to be, but you and I both are in a good spot for these types of storms. I’d be more worried if I was west and inland for this setup.

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol…has that thing ever gotten anything correct? WTF? 

It nailed the last event where inland areas got buried, but typically it has a SE bias. It’s usually not correct, but a good rule of thumb is when the Navy is more amped than other guidance, it’s a big red flag. It’s basically the opposite of the Canadian (amped bias).

Big runs tonight. Gfs is close to something big which is good, but I would like the Canadian and Euro to jump on board. Also can’t afford to lose the Navy

It’s not over yet, but we can’t afford any more steps back if we want the 20th threat to become a big one. 

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think the Canadian is a great model based on what I’ve seen for years. Can it score an event? Sure, but a great model it is not.

It has a higher verification score than the gfs

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have said this before, but the "slow crawl" crap doesn't really do much for amounts...it just gives Kevin fuel for his "days and days" rhetoric, but the good news is that he'll do it, regardless. The intense dynamics are exhausted within 12-18 hours, anyway in about 98% of systems.

Yeah it can snow a hell of a lot in 12-18 hours