George001

Rain just changed over to heavy snow here

I just woke up and checked the radar, HOLY FUCKING SHIT ITS WAY NORTH OF ALL THE MODELS!!!!! WERE GONNA GET BURIED!

Why does a 970s mb low over the benchmark have such a compact precip field?

The models still havent gone back north to where they were a couple days ago, what the fuck…..

The Navy was way north at 12z. It usually has a well se bias so that is interesting, it could be on to something.

I might bust, I’m not super confident but eh…. I’m sticking to my guns. I am skeptical that the storm will be as dry as some of the latest guidance has it. I believe there will be a blizzard in Boston tomorrow.

Euro has been flopping around and is an outlier. Tossed

49 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Ill take this

 

This looks like it was run out of Metfans cruiser

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Pounding grass?

It can snow at 34 degrees

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Think next weekend is our best shot for the coast before the pattern breaks down 

It would be very unfortunate if the good pattern coming broke down that fast. I’m hoping to not see bare ground until late March after Tuesdays snow.

I’m thinking 12-16 here

I checked the models this afternoon and told my family to stock up on groceries and prepare for the blizzard coming on Tuesday. 980s mb low passing inside the benchmark, I’m all in.

I’m getting excited about this threat

Gfs a bit north from last run. I’d like to see that continue. 

I’d like the low to be about 75 miles SE of the GFS and Canadian for my area, but I’ll take my chances with a low bombing to the 970s in mid Feb.

14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Since everyone has a fascination with that storm here it is in all it's glory...and hell.

 

This is painful to look at. If only it was a few degrees colder in eastern mass.

52 minutes ago, Hazey said:

55cm (22”) final at my place. YHZ reporting 84cms(33”) but that might be suspect as it seems high. Cape Breton sold 2-4ft reports with a few 5vers thrown in. Incredible storm and one that will be long remembered in the Maritimes.

Not bad for some rogue Baffin Island s/w.

Damn, that is one hell of a storm.

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

below normal snowfall and above normal temps doesn't deserve anything more than an F grade....it has felt like winter on about 7 days...and the departure from normal snowfall is going to increase over the next 7-10 days...

Low temp for the winter so far has been 11 degrees. On pace to not have a single morning temp below 10 degrees.

Agree, you can still get a somewhat respectable winter with slightly above normal temps in the means, but it’s been what +4 AN? That’s just too warm. Meanwhile Alaska has been getting hammered. 

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Bc it's raining

Yeah, I don’t know why it would supposed to be showing snow. The low is hugging the coast.

Another issue with this winter is an interesting observation Kevin made. Alaska has been BN all year with well AN snows. They are getting hammered, which usually means we are torching. I remember this same thing happening in the 2011-2012 winter. A true Torch Tiger winter.

7 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Still looks promising for Saturday!

Yep looks toasty, you excited?

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Miss this. Feb 9th 2015

What a winter that was, truly a once in a lifetime type of winter. Had a great pattern just lock in from mid Jan on, and everything that could go right did. The luck factor cannot be understated here, I remember reading something that mentioned the probability of Boston having 90 inches in 3 weeks like the late Jan to mid Feb stretch is 1 in 20000 or something. 

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s a fair criticism. I don’t trust them either until inside of D10. But at least they aren’t can-kicking and there’s pretty strong signals on them. If they continue to look good by Sunday/Monday, then I’d feel a lot more optimistic. 

The redeeming factor in my eyes is strong and super nino climatology. There is historical precedence for big snows in Feb, even in warmer winters (wasn’t there one in 82-83?). Maybe the thing that screwed us in Dec in Jan can help a bit in late Feb? 

This may be unpopular but….. I don’t think omegas posts have been unreasonable at all these past 2 winters. Is he biased? Yeah, but he is far from the only one. I also completely agree with the Pope that the pattern thus far has been consistent with a significant El Niño event. Raging STJ, warm and wet. That has been the theme of this winter, and it looks like it’s going to continue until mid month. What happens then is still up in the air. The reality is it HAS been warm, and it hasn’t been very snowy. If he’s posting 300+ hour torch maps during a blizzard….. then that’s different. Maybe the pattern does change, but when I think pattern change I’m going by great snow’s definition (a change to cold that locks in for 3+ weeks). 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Dude your trolling is annoying. This is before the pattern change. 

Yeah the pattern is not good right now but there are still 2 threats to track. The clipper threat for Feb 2-3 and the possible coastal scraper on Feb 7-8th. Both of these threats need a lot of work. Neither will be blizzards but any snow is good snow at this point. There’s nothing wrong with a quick inch or 2 of snow to make it look like winter.