George001

I am actually very optimistic about next winter. There is a positive correlation between how active a hurricane season is and snowfall in the east during La Nina’s. Given how warm the temps are in the Atlantic Ocean and how La Niña is expected to develop fairly early (May-June), if the Niña does develop as expected I like our chances.

I don’t even care about being in the jackpot. I’m not supposed to, there’s a reason why areas NW average way more snow than I do. If I get 50 inches with average temps and people NW of me get 100 inches, that’s still a decent winter. If I get 40 inches with +3 AN temps and areas NW of me get 20-30 inches, that still fucking SUCKS. I will take the 1st winter over the second one any day, even though I got “porked”. The reason why these past 2 years have been shit isn’t just because I got porked, it’s because the large scale pattern has been shit AND I got porked on top of that.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOS to your area and even up to Cape Ann and then back into the Foxborough area has gotten porked relative to climo pretty bad the last 2 winters. Even worse than most other areas. S CT had been way worse previously but they got a bit of redemption this month. My area has been pretty bad too but at least I got 10” in the 1/7 storm. 
 

But some of that is def payback for the jackpots we were pulling out of our rears for years even in blah patterns. 

I’m hoping we can get winter to feel like winter the next couple of years. I’m not asking for an epic winter with 70-80+ inches of snow, just a normal winter with average snow and average temps. It has been terrible with all the warmth.

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya SE Mass really taking it in the ass this year. It’s been Much better in central and western areas in SNE this season than last(still not anything all to good), but better.  They want it to end…we can understand that.  But on 2/17 winter probably isn’t done with the area just yet. 

It is done here. No cold air to be found. I would like to track more threats in March but I am not optimistic. Im more excited about next winter.

Early signs are for a very active high ACE hurricane season. Early developing Niña + the unusually warm Atlantic is making me think this hurricane season will be extreme. 

sometimes the large scale pattern is just really bad. Nothing wrong with giving up and just accepting it isn’t our year, and looking to the next winter. I’m still going to track because I track rainstorms too (which is what I am expecting the 24th to be for my area), but I am officially declaring my 20-30 inch seasonal forecast for the Boston area a massive BUST. Boston will not crack 20 inches this year, I would bet money on it. Honestly, I don’t think they will crack 15 at this point.

It would be nice to have a threat where temps aren’t even remotely a concern. 

I am very concerned about the airmass and lack of a high to the north. I hope that changes.

24th threat looks very bad for the coast. No high to the north, marginal airmass. 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Will have to see exactly when the peak is....we  may sneak in one more winter before the solar wind and electromagnetic energy kicks up.

We need to see what the ACE is, too....while a huge ACE doesn't guarantee a great winter, its never lead to a horrific one, either.

Just curious, what are your early thoughts on ENSO strength and structure for next winter? 

22 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Well, 6” will do it. Absolute cement for the first 4, too 2 weren’t to bad. Got to use my snowblower I bought in Dec 2020 For only the 3rd time. Chewed right through this stuff like a champ.

 

Anyways, on some dumpier news, my wife and I are separating, so no idea how much longer I’ll be in this house/area.

Enjoyed this event even with all of its flaws

That really sucks, sorry to hear about that

One thing im going to be keeping an eye on is how active the hurricane season ends up being. Raindance mentioned a couple years ago that there was a moderate positive correlation between the ACE and east coast snowfall during La Niña winters. 

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Though Id be fine with neutral, Im also more than fine with a Nina next winter. We do far better in Ninas than Ninos in Michigan. I guess its all the difference in climates, but its crazy to see how midatlantic folks root on strong Ninos when that is literally THE worst winter you can draw up in the Great Lakes. I would argue 2023-24 has been the worst winter imaginable in northern MI/MN/WI, though Id need to do a lot of research to back it up (talking lack of snow + warmth). In southeast MI we had a good January and the rest has been terrible (Detroit has had 19.9" snow so far but 17.0" of this fell in Jan!). But all the bad I can say about this winter, there is not a single strong Nino on record that has been a good winter here. Im assuming the fondness of strong Ninos for some has to do with the heightened chance of east coast snowstorms?

 

There are a few duds, but by and large Ninas are snowy winters here and they are often front-loaded. Its quite common for a hot summer and mild Fall to abruptly give way to a cold, snowy December in a Nina year. We also see an increased risk of some real good winter storms in Ninas. And unlike Ninos with their strength discrepancy (weak nino can often be a good winter, strong nino ALWAYS sucks), a snowy winter is attainable in any strength of Nina.

 

Of course everything is speculation at this point, but I look forward to following this thread throughout the year, thanks for starting it George! 

 

I agree with you, I would rather roll the dice on a La Niña than a strong or super nino. Once it became clear that the ongoing El Niño would become as strong as it ended up being, I immediately lowered my expectations for winter in eastern Mass. this winter has been less snowy and warmer than even I thought it would be. The result was unfortunate, but it was interesting to track and see how the El Niño developed. This La Niña will be interesting to track as well. Strong ninos tend to be warm and wet in the northern half of the US, and this winter has proven to be no exception to that. 

My early thoughts for ENSO analogs for 2024-2025 are based on a combination on historical precedence of similar enso analogs to this year and long range guidance. Right now, I like 73-74, 10-11 and 88-89. 73-74 and 10-11 are La Niña winters following strong or super ninos, and are only a couple years removed from the end of a multi year nina event. Now there is still the spring predictability barrier being an issue, so it is possible that the models are incorrect about the development of La nina.

However, given the -PDO, collapse of the subsurface warmth and historical precedence following a nino this strong, I am favoring the development of La Niña in the May-June timeframe. If this turns out to be correct, I would expect the La Niña to strengthen from weak (-0.5 to -1 ONI) to strong (< -1.5 ONI) by fall. There is some guidance that keeps the La Niña as a weak event, but I am highly skeptical of that. 

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

what if that person stabs you with a sword and you die?

Then they are actually backing up their tough talk, which is respectable. Fortunately that has never happened, but I have gotten my ass handed to me by people who I challenged to duels before. I have 100x the respect for the people who accept and defeat me in a duel than I do people who run and hide like cowards. 

40 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yeah I was going to say, people who never been punched in the face get to act tough, because a good majority would never say shit like what they do to someone in person, creating a social disconnect really. it seems now a lot of people don't know how to act in public, friendly or otherwise

This is why I believe in the old school approach. If someone acts tough online, challenge them to a duel. They either have to accept and say that shit to your face, or decline and admit that they are a weak willed internet tough guy who hides behind a screen. In my opinion, everyone who talks shit online should be forced to meet with said person and say it to their face. If you wouldn’t say something to someone’s face, don’t say it online. 

The CFS has a moderate La Niña developing by summer. I say BRING IT ON!!!

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’ll be right back on the train once the clown maps have you in double digits on the next threat. 

Not unless there is large scale cross guidance agreement on temps being FRIGID, like mid 20s or below throughout the entire storm. I would love to be proven wrong, but until I see that, I am out on the rest of this “winter”. I’ve just been chasing ghosts for 2 years. 2/24 could be interesting for the interior, but to me it looks like more of the same. Too warm here.

I have no confidence in the 24th threat. Looking at the ensembles, the temps are AN. The temps are just too warm this winter. I got burned with this threat and the Jan 7th one, I’m not getting burned again. It’s just going to be another shitty needle threader that requires a tremendous amount of luck. It’s a ratter, for me it’s time to move on to tracking the ENSO state for next winter.

After a busted forecast it’s important to ask what went wrong and try to learn from it. In hindsight, I overlooked a few glaring red flags:

1. No high to the north, marginal airmass.

2. We were reliant on phasing during a very fast flow. The pattern did not favor a tucked in bomb close to the coast.

3. Not giving enough weight to the most recent guidance. Can’t just assume things will come back north or a massive shift is an overcorrection. 

22 minutes ago, Greg said:

Now that's a person who wipes the board every half hour!!! 

There is no way in hell Boston has over 2 inches, never mind 7. My call for a Boston blizzard was a major bust. I have about an inch of slush here, and I’m pretty sure Boston got even less than that.

God damn it, I was forecasted to get 12-18 inches just 2 days ago and now I’m getting white rain. I’m rooting for a big Niña next winter. There is nothing I despise more than missing a big snowstorm to the south.

34 degrees. Note to self- NEVER get hyped about snow if the projected temps are above freezing. 

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

LOL …

after the last 24 hours of modeling peregrinations, you are only just now getting concerned ?

 

No….. I had hopes it would trend back north but yes I was concerned. Then I woke up and saw the radar was north, had hope again. Looks like the Pope may have been right after all.

It’s snowing but the snow isn’t really sticking, I only have a coating. Radar looks good but I’m starting to get concerned.