George001

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My guess is not like the 00z solution.  

Hopefully not worse. We need:

1. Deeper low

2. Low more north

3. slower storm

That said, big euro run coming up. We need to see the Euro double down, no steps back.

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Good about somewhere in new England getting hit. And the evolution has completely changed lol

True, low is more north. I agree that the evolution has changed, but it seems to have changed more favorably if anything.

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks kind of warm for him, no?

We are toast here regardless of track of this isn’t going to strengthen and drain some cold in.

Just yesterday you said you are feeling pretty good about this one. What happened?

I have a question about thermals. I’m looking at the guidance, and despite a mid 1030s mb high to the north the temps are in the 30s for a good amount of time. Wouldn’t you expect the temps to be A LOT colder given that we have a strong high to the north?  

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes we get it lol 

I don’t think the setup is as bad as he’s saying, but snowman does bring up a good point about snow ratios. On the 0z Euro for most of the storm the temps are hovering around 33-34 degrees. This does support snowman’s argument that 10:1 maps are overdone, as with temps in that range ratios typically are in the 7:1-5:1 range. However, this is an INCREDIBLY difficult forecast. What if the Euro is off 2 degrees and it’s actually 31? Then you are taking maybe 12:1. On the other hand, if it’s a couple degrees warmer it’s straight up rain. With that high to the north I would think it’s more likely we tick colder than warmer. 

Yep, low is more north and it deepens to the mid 980s. 

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This setup isn't awful. Yes the first half of the storm is rain but if the transfer happens quick and it's strong then we will flip to snow.

I think some of you are not paying attention to the trend of the PNA ridge out west.

Yeah the ridge is very amplified, there is also a mid 1030s high to the north. 

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

As I said earlier, I am much more interested in models from 12Z Thurs and onward but even now I can't see this getting suppressed to the extent the Canadian shows it.  By Saturday morning people will be bitching "it's too amped".

You think we will see a deeper low? I do, I think it will deepen a lot more on future runs.

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s like the nam lately. One run he’s cancelling winter, then the next he is all in on a boston burial. 

Im on board for a large scale burial inland. Im pumping the breaks a bit for Boston.

This is the best setup for the coast all year, but I am expecting the jackpot to be NW again. A lot has to go right for us to see double digits right to the coast. Like we could easily see Boston end up with 8 or so while inland gets buried even if things come together. 

9 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Large scale burial as in 2ft+ in the jackpot zone?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

No, but a solid stripe of 16-20 in the jackpot zone if the trend of the storm slowing down continues. 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So your call last night of Boston hitting just 25” by season’s end is in jeopardy and that quickly?

It’s very possible, the models did trend a lot better today (Euro and Navy especially). I don’t like the look of the pattern on the long range models for Boston though, so they REALLY need to cash in here.

If the storm slows down just a few hours more than the Euro has it, this will be a large scale burial. It’s a tricky forecast though, because if it speeds up a couple hours, it’s a minor event. The middle ground solution is a high end moderate to low end major event. We need the storm to slow down so the strong high to the north has time to build in. Before anyone asks, yes I saw the 12z Navy. The Navy is way more north than the gfs is, which is a big red flag.

I am on board with this developing into a major storm. There are some timing issues, but the ingredients are there. Very amplified western ridge axis, strong southern energy, a piece diving in late trying to phase, and most importantly a mid 1030s mb high to the north trying to build in. That matters to me more than any qpf maps or snow maps, those are always wrong anyways. It’s a progressive pattern yes, but you can get big storms in progressive patterns. Gun to head, I’m taking the over on the EPS mean.

Can we get one god damn BN winter month?

Pope says no

We need the northern energy to phase in and not be a kicker.

deeper low? How much deeper are we talking here, 980s? If so, we may need to have an open mind towards 1 foot+ solutions if that does indeed happen.

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs is better especially for the center of the universe. 

Low location is good but I want a stronger low.

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

la nina after el nino..... so it follows our pattern of very snowy winters that happen in la ninas that come after el ninos (even when the prior el nino was not snowy). 

Next winter may be significantly more snowy.

We have a decent chance at getting a big nina next year, after strong or super ninos Ninas often follow the year after, and often those Ninas gain a lot of strength. A good example is the 2010-2011 La Niña event. It came off a strong nino, and this Nina developed into one of the strongest La Niña events in history. That combination of a strong blocking, a strong La Niña pattern combined with an active southern jet (leftover from nino?) produced an one of the snowiest winters on record that year. That winter had 3 blizzards.

I think a lot of people will be concerned about the strength of this coming La Niña. But I won’t be. La nina is not as bad of an enso state to be in as a lot of people make it out to be.

I would take 2014-2015 over everything else, but 2013-2014 is up there with 2010-2011 for my favorite winters.

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What do they avg in Feb and Mar?

I’m not entirely sure, I think around 20 or so inches?

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think closer to 8”. They should be able to pull off another 22”+ during the next 60 days, which is the height of snowfall climo, in a backloaded nino. But the way variance is running, betting the under is probably the sharp play.

30 is aggressive, but possible if we don’t waste more than 1 week in Feb. I’m leaning more towards the pattern remains bad until mid Feb based on current long range guidance.

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What do they have now? 6? They are going to need a bonafide warning event to get there. I’ll take the under on 25

Bos needs 2 warning events or one biggie to get up to 25.