George001

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

JB just pulled out Jan 96 as an analog to Tuesday. lol there are no words. He just has to jump the shark every time. Every damn time. 

JB is a climate change denying clown

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

My gut feeling is different

I’m looking at winters after moderate ninos

95-96 04-05 2010-11

87-88 66-67

This isn’t a moderate nino though, it’s super. Aren’t Nina’s more common after strong or super ninos?

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t fear the sleet…I’d take half a foot of thump and then an inch of sleet to solidify the pack for the cold week in the wake of that system. Not that it’s going to be the final solution so it’s all just fodder. 
 

EPS at 18z will be interesting to see if they come NW too. OP run was probably out to lunch given the ensembles were mostly NW of the OP run. 

Yeah, it’s not a perfect setup but I would take that and run. Half a foot of snow and then an inch of sleet would be a great outcome especially since there is another threat following that is a better setup for the coast. That’s the nice thing about having a good airmass, even if the track isn’t ideal these runs are still giving me a good about of snow before any changeover.

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

no 

Yeah, looks like more sleet than ice.

That said, the setup for the 20-21st threat is much better for coastal areas. The ridge axis is centered over Montana for that one and the blocking is starting to weaken a bit. 

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think this will come east a bit more since the euro was way out to sea. With all that cold too, it seems odd to be that close. Let's go the in between. I think we'll do just fine

I would like it to come east, but this solution  fits the 500mb pattern. I don’t think it’s a great pattern for the coast due to the location of the western ridge axis, it’s just too far west. For coastal areas an ideal location for the western ridge is centered over Montana, for this threat it’s centered over Washington. It’s also more of a Miller A rather than a Miller B.

8 minutes ago, apm said:

But the EPS are trending weaker and worse (wide right).  Not a good trend in conjunction with the OP going poof. 

It’s going to come back NW. I’m more worried about an inland runner than suppression in this pattern.

4 minutes ago, inter said:

Thread cancel?

Not when the Navy’s on board

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Except uncle is actually a front ender with everyone raining as the storm runs well west of sne.

Yeah, low rams into CT.

The gfs looked close to something a lot bigger. If the energy digs just a little more for the 17th, the strength of the low will begin to increase on future runs.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Colder version of 2015-2016, yes. I always agreed with that. 

Yeah I remember you brought up that this could be a colder version of 2015-2016 a few months ago. Hopefully we get a big storm this year way north of the blizzard that year.

To be fair to Snowman, he called for Dec and Jan to be warm and Feb to be more favorable. That seems like a reasonable call right now, similar to 2015-2016 (which is looking like a very good analog). Feb 2016 I remember being a pretty good month, even though the winter was overall mild and BN snow for my area. 

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@snowman19 you're probably going to be correct in that this is a super Nino, so kudos for that, but I think you see my point. although it is a super Nino based on ONI, it likely strays from the typical EP super Nino conventions

I haven’t looked at the actual anomalies in a while, but now ENSO 1.2 is the weakest region. It’s basinwide, but if anything it has a slight WEST tilt not east. That’s unusual in a nino this strong. It’s interesting how Snowman was right about the strength of the nino, but you and Ray were right about the structure. It’s weird, we have the STJ on roids which is common in stronger nino events, but the look out west so far has been more like a bad Nina pattern (which Bluewave talked about a lot).

I’ve been fairly pessimistic about this winters pattern so far, but the pattern for the 1/20 period legitimately looks great and has the potential to deliver a big one. Both the Atlantic and pacific look to be cooperating, something we haven’t seen in a long time. Even the 1/16 threat which doesn’t have as ideal of a pattern could be sneaky good if it doesn’t amp too much and run inland. That looks like higher ratio snow.

26 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Enjoy your week buddy. with your 2.1. 2.3 lol

Snowman wasn’t right about it being east based, but he was correct about the strength. We are already at 1.9 ONI on the trimonthly, and unless the Nino rapidly weakens over the next couple of weeks NDJ is breaking 2.0, making this officially a super nino.

15 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Alot of my snow from the Sunday storm is actually still here after the storm. If only we weren't getting two back to back rain storms in a row smh.

yeah, it’s tough to maintain a snowpack through 2 consecutive power cutters. The big problem is the trough out west, leading to lows gaining latitude in the Midwest. The good news is that some of the long range guidance has that trough turning into a ridge, but in my opinion the 16-17th threat is likely to run inland because the western ridge axis is so far west. That’s why I am not discounting the 0z Euro outcome at all, it fits the pattern. I like the 20-21st threat better at least for my area, im too close to the ocean and too far east to do well in these hugger/inland runner setups. 

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

For me as long as it snows..I’m fine. If it’s above before and after so be it. Bring the snow like on Sunday. 

That’s very short term thinking, what good is a foot of snow if it all melts away 2 days later? That’s why temps matter, if you can’t get sustained cold you won’t be able to build a snowpack. Just looking at snow totals isnt the correct way to evaluate how severe a winter is. There is a HUGE difference between an average snow winter that is 3 degrees AN and average snow with 3 degrees BN.

What’s with all the doom and gloom? The Euro has a 970s mb low plowing into New England for the 16-17th threat, isn’t that exciting?

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

Where is the coastal love Ray speaks of? Not found on this clown…

In this coming pattern coastal areas are playing with fire due to how far west the western ridge axis is on the models. It is a hell of a lot better than anything we had in December and last year though.

Where did my snow go? I don’t have very much, only 3 or so inches. Damn it, I need to move north.

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

128 is looking cooked 

unless this band cools them

It’s snowing here, but man it’s toasty out. 34 degrees here with not much accumulation yet. Hoping those temps cool off.

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Maybe the HREF will work out ha 

radar looks pretty good to me 

1” Bedford Ma (on grass)

ocean enhancement last 2 hours 

If the HREF is right there will be a lot if busted forecasts in SE Mass. Nobody is forecasting anything close to a foot here.

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z guidance so far tonight is going pretty bullish on the CCB tomorrow. I think that may be a factor with crashing temps too in the afternoon. Still some disagreement on temp crashing. Some models really delay it until it’s almost over but others are crashing it in the middle of the CCB which would be a bigger deal. 

I have no idea what to expect…. What would you say a realistic range for my area is based on obs and the latest guidance? I was thinking around 6-7 inches this morning due to the north trend, now not sure.

In my opinion both the 10th and 13th are cutting. Yeah we have blocking but those storms are crashing into the Pacific Northwest. When energy is crashing into the Pacific Northwest, it dives south and goes neutral over the plains. Then it goes negative over the Midwest. When the trough goes negative, storms WILL gain latitude. 

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Expecting mostly glop here after the trends today. Sucks. Another event down the proverbial and literal drain.

Eh, it sucks but that’s climo. The pattern and storm track favors NW areas, not SE Mass.