George001

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z guidance so far tonight is going pretty bullish on the CCB tomorrow. I think that may be a factor with crashing temps too in the afternoon. Still some disagreement on temp crashing. Some models really delay it until it’s almost over but others are crashing it in the middle of the CCB which would be a bigger deal. 

I have no idea what to expect…. What would you say a realistic range for my area is based on obs and the latest guidance? I was thinking around 6-7 inches this morning due to the north trend, now not sure.

In my opinion both the 10th and 13th are cutting. Yeah we have blocking but those storms are crashing into the Pacific Northwest. When energy is crashing into the Pacific Northwest, it dives south and goes neutral over the plains. Then it goes negative over the Midwest. When the trough goes negative, storms WILL gain latitude. 

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Expecting mostly glop here after the trends today. Sucks. Another event down the proverbial and literal drain.

Eh, it sucks but that’s climo. The pattern and storm track favors NW areas, not SE Mass.

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew I shouldn't have bumped immediate Boston area up at the last moment. I hate weather. 

You were 5-10 in Boston right? 10 is unlikely but the lower end of that looks pretty good. 

These types of storms are always fun to track. Realistically a case could be made for me to end up with anywhere from a slushy 3-4 inches to a foot. Models will continue wobbling, but we won’t know for sure how this plays out until the storm is right on top of us.

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah the post count is going to look like a sine wave most likely if ensemble guidance is any indication. Very little during the snowstorm and then a big spike during the cutter (perhaps two if 1/13 cuts) then back down again as pattern really goes colder with potential snow threats. 
 

We’ll return for verification in a couple weeks. 

Yeah, I can tell how the models look before looking at them just by seeing who’s posting. If I see Torch Tiger making a bunch of posts about how excited he is for the upcoming pattern, I know it’s about to get really warm with flooding rains. Imo both 1/10 and 1/13 are cooked down here, but NNE could do well.

Gonna need to fire up a thread for the 2nd massive cutter coming up on the 13th soon!

7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

You should have seen that coming.

Yeah, just use xvideos or pornhub. No buffering, high quality and you won’t get viruses.

It’s locked in, there WILL be a burial in Foxborough on Sunday.

38 minutes ago, dryslot said:

And then throw this over the top of Weds, And you can catch climo avg real quick.

I see a low over my noggin.

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Congratulations Dendrite.

Way north

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Rubbish??? What are you looking at? 

Torch Tiger wants us to rain

I’m thinking 10-15 here, it’s coming. 

This is gonna be a really tough forecast for Boston. Just a couple of degrees could be the difference between 2 and 10 inches.

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

YIKES 

Ran straight out of Torch Tigers basement, I’m happy for him. The pattern supports it too.

Holy shit, it’s actually happening. A few days ago when there were 2 camps, one weak and agreed and another way north, the Navy was north. Everything caved to the Canadian and Navy!

Holy shit, over the past couple of days the low moved a good 100+ miles north on the models!

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Probably delusional but it would get mid-level magic into CNE.

Yeah, that’s a burial. CNE absolutely gets in on it with the low that far north.

The gfs went south a bit, but the Canadian went even more north. Low is also deepening to the high 980s

It’s interesting, looking at the pattern coming up it looks serviceable to good for the Boston area, but a lot better for interior areas. Almost like a La Niña snowfall distribution, wouldn’t be surprised to see Boston end the season with 40 and Worcester with 80-90 or something. 

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's going to be an uphill battle next week with that deep trough amplifying out west.....probably a front end 2-5" over the interior is a reasonable goal.....and it will get mild mid month as the MJO goes through the MC....but once that circles back around to the favorable phases after about the 20th and the PV begins drifting back eastward, there is going to be some absolutely astronomical potential. A guy a chat with online was mentioning the late January 1978 evolution with that OV inside runner and I can see it.

This is going to be one hell of a ride.

Gun to head, how are you feeling about your 42-52 inch call for the Boston area? I’m not going to lie, I’m getting nervous about my 20-30 inch call busting, especially with the blocking being modeled for later Jan and a significant storm (6+) on the horizon. Imo your range is looking good right now. 

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS looking better

Yep, low is way north. Should I get my snowblower ready?

Hopefully the Canadian is right about 1/10. The low plows into Michigan, but it snows east of the low.

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d weight 70% gfs and 30%. Euro is easily the most amped, so have to keep that in mind.

2-4” maybe a bit more for colder areas 

Canadian is a good compromise between Euro and gfs. 6-10 inches for us, which I would be very happy with.

The weaker solutions are bad news because it allows the follow up storm to gain more latitude which would lead to another washout for ski areas.