George001

Holy shit. The pattern on the 18z gfs is a thing of beauty. Actual fucking COLD!

I’ve been very pessimistic about the pattern since December, but we have 3 legitimate threats to track. 5th, 7th, and then the 10th.  I would like to see a bit more cold air, but it’s workable. 

It will come north.

The Pope is very angry today, hate to see it

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ok ok the 1/10 cutter getting pressed to redevelop now. 

Miller B?

The trough goes neutral over around Alabama for the 5th storm even on the more progressive guidance. Anything from whiff to inland runner is on the table, but in my opinion that one’s coming north. When the trough goes negative, the storm WILL gain latitude. That is absolutely a real threat, I am getting excited about it. I would not be surprised at all if the low runs inland a bit, ramming into SE Mass.

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Good chance we are going to get the shit sandwich trifecta. Whiff/rain, which, cutter.

I don’t think both the 5th and 7th will whiff. Rain, yeah that’s a valid concern. The issue is temps, not a lack of moisture. 

Models are torching the 1st half of Jan now. So much for that promised “pattern change”. Just like 2016 El Nino is derailing winter. You can come back from punting Dec, but you can’t lose Jan.

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress.  I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections.  It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different

 

That is actually vomit inducing. Again, I can live with missing storms but it isn’t supposed to be this warm in January. Winter is defined by more than just the total seasonal snowfall, a truly good winter actually feels and looks like winter. This means plenty of cold with a sustained snowpack. Bare ground near the Canadian border isn’t normal or expected. It sucks 

Give me a hugger that rains for my area and buries NNE. Good skiing conditions >>>>>>> snow at home. 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

To me, that just means the cold loads west first and maybe modifies some as it comes east, but its not a death knell. All I want is storms and seasonable temps.

I’ve come to terms with my climo living on the coastal plain, but im going to be up north skiing a lot. That’s why I’m concerned about what’s going on in NNE this year. I’m actually more pissed about the warmth and snowmelt in NNE than getting skunked at home. Hopefully the pattern improves enough that they can build a snowpack and sustain it the rest of the winter.

30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t think they get that though… 

I’ll give credit for the pattern change verifying if Jan finishes BN temps, regardless of snow.

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

For at least 3 weeks? That's an awful long time. 

It’s been warm for a month straight, it shouldn’t be too much to ask for just a few weeks of cold weather but apparently it is.

So there was a lot of talk about the pattern flipping to much better after the new years. We still on schedule for that? 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These guys somehow want the torture of seeing hr 300 op run blizzard’s that they won’t ever get. 

I’ll admit it, I do want to see multiple blizzards on the models.

Update: I’m feeling pretty good about my high end strong nino call (1.9 ONI peak seems likely). The storm track so far has been to our west, and based on how December has gone I’m feeling pretty good about that as well. There are a few things I got wrong though. One was that I expected the PDO to increase, and it actually decreased more. That could result in a more unfavorable pacific later in the winter. However, it looks like I also got the arctic pattern very wrong. I said I expected a stronger than normal PV, and a split is highly unlikely. There is now cross guidance support for a polar vortex split, and trying to be as objective as I can I’m not going to ignore that. I don’t think it will make much of a difference for my Dec-Jan forecast, but it very well could for Feb-Mar. The issue is, if we get skunked Jan it will be very difficult to make up the snowfall deficit even if we do get a favorable pattern from the PV split. The pacific is still a concern, and due to this I don’t see the truly high end months like Feb 2015, Jan 2011, Jan 2022, Mar 2018 etc being in the cards. That’s why I am sticking to my 20-30 inch snowfall forecast for the Boston area. 

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes a colder pattern . That's step 1.

Yeah im feeling a bit better about early Jan than a couple of days ago due to the improved airmass. It’s not an epic Feb 2015/March 2018/Jan 2011 type pattern, but it looks serviceable for at least a bit. After this mild and snowless December I’ll take it. 

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

you used to be laid back "we're gonna get a blizzard" kinda guy. what happened

We didn’t get a blizzard. 

Yep, everything is completely normal. Nothing to see here, the average temps in New England being several degrees warmer than 30 years ago is completely irrelevant right? Good ol Wolfie knows more than the scientists who have been studying this shit longer than I’ve been alive.

4 hours ago, rehjr said:

Congrats he mentioned you in a post in the NYC city thread. Called out you and I on a post I made. If he believes in AGW why in the hell did he predict one blizzard after another  last winter for Boston? Called for 100”. He’s living proof anyone can be brainwashed into believing anything. 

For fucks sake AGW isn’t something you believe in or don’t. It’s happening now, was happening in 2014-2015, and will continue to happen. I got excited about the pattern last December and thought that the Nina + blocking + AGW enhanced mild ocean temps would enhance snowfall ASSUMING IT WAS COLD ENOUGH. I was wrong, simple as that. Yeah, my predictions last year were dumb and I’ll own that. I’m not forecasting those crazy numbers anymore because I listened to people who know more than I do and learned from my mistakes. Maybe you should do the same thing with AGW, but we both know you and Wolfie won’t. I’m not even going to bother explaining why 100+ inch winters such as 2014-2015 are not inconsistent with AGW. There is no point in trying to reason with you deniers. YOU are the one who is brainwashed, not me. 

27 minutes ago, rehjr said:

Admitting the problem is the first step to recovery 

I mean yeah, if I had more knowledge of meteorology that would certainly help, I’m not denying that. That is why I choose to read and learn from people who know a lot more than I do such as the Pope, Bluewave, Raindance etc. Hell I’m willing to keep and open mind and listen to those who I disagree with but acknowledge know their shit better than I do. You want to listen to someone who understands meteorology rather than a hobbyist who’s still lacking in that area? That’s completely fair, but most of the forecasts I have seen are for an AN temp winter. 

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So you think that AGW is causing no snow this December?  Lmao!!!  What was it when we had good Decembers?  What was it when we had bad Decembers 20 yrs ago? 50’yrs ago? Stay in your own silly world.  Sometimes things just don’t work out…for a myriad of reasons.   
 

Things are looking up as we go along…if they flop, you can have the credit that you were right. 

I mean it’s a driver (especially given the well AN ocean temps), but is it the main reason why I’m not getting snow this December? No. I’m not getting snow because I live on the coastal plain and our climo sucks in December and it’s a borderline super nino. The +10 anomalies in Canada? It’s one of many drivers. Honestly I would say AGW was a bigger culprit last December. This is just a classic Nino December, and strong nino Decembers tend to suck. 8 consecutive AN winters though? Yeah, that’s AGW related.

8 minutes ago, rehjr said:

You can tell what temps are going to be in January, February and March on December 21st?? 

Assuming Dec finished +3 AN (which is conservative), if J-M averages -1 BN that takes us to average for Dec-Mar. I don’t need any actual knowledge of meteorology to predict that this winter will finish AN, it’s basic math. Even the more optimistic posters like Brooklyn and Ray understand and acknowledge this. Assuming an equal probability of AN/BN (again this is conservative, as it doesn’t take AGW, and the strong El Niño into account), an average rest of winter will finish AN due to how warm December will end up being. 

14 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

bruh, worry about getting your 1st inch than worrying about a snowpack

Yeah, you got me there. 

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Maybe we should stop focusing on other seasons and what we did in 2015 or any other season and wait to see what happens in this season. No two seasons are alike. I don't care how much they seem like they're matching up, there's twists and turns that happen in the blink of an eye. All it takes. Takes George is one huge snowstorm to drop a big cover of snow, and that could be our base for building our snowpack. Even if things don't get started till early January, snow can stay on the ground in January, February and to March. Even with a higher sun angle in March, we've had snowy marches where snow stayed on the ground, maybe it melted faster on the pavement, but we've had snow cover everywhere. Else. Else. Point is stop focusing on other years and comparing to what's happening this year because no two years are the same ever.

Fair enough, but based on what I’m seeing my opinion is that we are going to be fighting temps for most of this winter. Borderline super nino, strong -PDO, roaring pacific jet, and record low snow cover for our source regions. The Pope brought this up multiple times, but people keep ignoring it. Instead of ignoring him, I am choosing to read and learn from his posts. He knows his shit, and he’s usually right.