George001

Eh, it will probably go back and forth over the next couple of days.

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Seriously?

Yeah that’s way north

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would rather risk the northern side of the envelop.....nothing I hate more than limp, dry sand while a trip state/CJ orgy rages deep into the night.

Agree. I’m ok with risking ptype issues, would rather lose some snow to mixing and lower ratios with a hugger track than a weak strung out piece of shit. 

I hope Zappe throws 5 picks in the snow on Sunday. The 12+ amounts very well could be overdone, but I’m feeling pretty good about a plowable snow for my area with the 12z guidance moving way north.

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

George!  George! George!

Yep I’ve seen enough, I’m officially on board for a significant storm. When the Navy is that far north and strong, that’s a red flag that the southern guidance is wrong.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Uggh need a south bump 

I want it more north. EPS looks great.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the biggest issue is to develop more confluence to our north. I don’t think it prevents us from flipping to rain, but it could help lead to a colder front end and keep NNE frozen.  I thought the euro took a step that way.

Yeah with that setup we are going to taint eventually, but I’m hoping we can get a few inches of front end and avoid the torch for a net gain.

For the 10th threat, what are some things to look for that would lead to a more wintry outcome?

I agree 100% with suppression not being the main threat especially for the coastal plain. My gut feeling is we will be fighting ptype issues, with biggest snows inland. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

HOLY SHIT THATS WAY NORTH

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you want a phased 1/7 system helping with confluence ahead of the 1/10 system. GGEM was better for 1/10 too and I’m betting its 1/7 solution helped. 

Looks like an all or nothing pattern. If 1/7 whiffs south we are cooked, but if it goes way north a wintry solution for 1/10 is back on the table.

Navy is also north

Canadian looks great, I hope it’s right. Gfs is weak and strung out.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It is far from forgone that 1/10 will be mostly rain. 

Yeah we need a later phase to prevent the low from gaining latitude in the Midwest.

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Enjoy the 36 hours of snow over, because it’s about to be flushed on the gfs for the 10th 

Gfs improved for the 10th

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No one cares about the 10th 

I disagree, the 10th matters. Rooting for a net gain. 

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Probably doesn't bode well for the 10th on the GFS in the areas that see snow, A Euro solution would be a better fit but we don't get what we want.

Yeah, low in Wisconsin.

Canadian bumped north

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Where ? Low is south and east of 12z.

It will come north, I believe the low will ram into SEMA.

I want a hugger track for 2 reasons. One is that the models that are more north (12z Euro) have a better outcome for the following storm. I have 0 interest in a foot of snow that only lasts 3 days before getting washed away. I would rather get 4 inches of snow with some sleet and maybe ice on top of that snowpack and have a better shot at maintaining a snowpack after the follow up wave. The Euro would be a net gain here, yeah I’m going to mix in both storms if it’s right but that’s a better outcome than a full blown cutter after the 7th storm. The second reason is I am going to be spending a lot of time up north to ski, so I want ski areas to do well. 

26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I have a secret for you. It’s not going to be snow in Foxboro if the low tracks over me, 10 miles SE

No it won’t be all snow but I could still get a few inches like the Euro shows with a hugger track. I want that fucker to ram into SE MA, and then keep going north into Maine. We are in the game in this pattern, but realistically we aren’t going to avoid taint at some point. I do not expect both the 7th and 10th to be all snow for either of us. Not with that negative PNA.

I want the Euro to be right. Low right over Tblizz’s noggin. I’m with Torch Tiger, I want the low to trend more north.

I’m tracking these threats too, but let’s be honest the Pope knows his shit. If I were to tell you I wasn’t concerned at all about the Pope not being on board, I would be lying. 

Am I the only one still watching the 4th? It is too far SE on the models and has been trending in the wrong direction, but it’s still 4 days out. It’s a long shot, but I’m not writing it off yet. 

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Ok so 1/7 looking good, then washout, but at least 1 storm is looking good inside day 10.  I don’t care if the 10th washes is out.  It will be cold for awhile after the monster cutter, so maybe we can get something while we have a trough in the east.

I disagree, a washout would be a disaster for ski areas.