George001

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why don't you go make a map and leave me alone.

You want me to put my money where my mouth is? Yeah, fair enough. I’m going to call for 1-2 inches of snow here, a coating in Boston, 2-3 for you, 3-5 for Worcester. In Western Mass I’ll go 6-8 (elevation). I don’t think anyone is sniffing double digits with this putrid airmass. If I’m wrong, I’ll own it.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are exactly the type of person that focuses on the highest number...look at the arial coverage of that snowfall range....what a moronic post.

It’s going to be 35-36, I’m not getting 4 either. I’m going to double down on that post…. I’ll eat my socks if I get over 4 inches.

If I actually get 7 inches I’ll eat my socks. You cannot snow without cold air.

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

They probably have better odds of seeing snow than you do in the coming pattern. 

72-73 was one of the analogs for this winter

Unfortunately I agree with you. Strong and super El Niños are better for the mid atlantic, they suck up here. I’m rooting for a La Niña next year.

I’m skeptical of the maps giving me 5-6 inches of snow. I’m taking the under on that given how warm it is.

43 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Not impossible.  The retrograding could be fun.  Meanwhile the mid Atlantic thread is fun.

I hope they all rain down there in the tropics

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seeing that kink in H5 around 60h is a good thing. I think if we can see that feature continue to show up on future runs, it raises the ceiling on the event. 

Realistically what’s the ceiling here? I figured with how this has evolved it’s not very high outside of the mountains.

It will come more north.

It’s very unlikely but it isn’t impossible. It’s an unusual evolution, but we have seen clippers dive south, bomb out over the Atlantic and evolve into a blizzard before. My biggest concern is the temp profile, I’d prefer to see modeled temps in the mid 20s not low 30s throughout the storm.

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, the advertised pattern plays better for like HFD south. once into mid-Feb, everyone can get in on the action… NYC and MA are favored, but 2003 and 1983 got into BOS

Was the blocking more north based those years? 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Feels like signal that there’s going to be a very early spring…

Damn, so we are basically going straight from fall to spring

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm not familiar with how a strong nina would affect the East. But I know here in the lakes there's actually a decent chance of having a very stormy winter. Big on roller coaster patterns.

For New England, strong Nina isn’t bad. It’s not our most favorable Enso state (weak Nino and weak Ninas are better), but it’s more favorable than strong or super ninos here. 2010-2011 was one of the snowiest winters on record in the Boston area, and it was during a strong Nina. The last strong Nina we had before that (2007-2008) wasn’t quite as good, but it was still a pretty good winter. Farther north that was an extremely good winter.

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t think anyone is arguing that, but there’s no reason why that pattern wouldn’t occur. can you come up with an actual reason on modeling right now for that to go up in flames?

an actual reason, not just “if everything single thing possible goes wrong, the rest of the winter will suck.” that doesn’t count

I agree that the long range looks better on recent runs and that we will see a colder stretch. However, I don’t like how far south the blocking is on some of these runs. Especially given strong nino climo, I’m concerned about suppression (Feb 2010 style). While yes, the pattern on the models is supported by Feb strong nino climo, that pattern isn’t necessarily good for SNE. It’s a great pattern for the mid Atlantic, ok one for SNE north.

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Could slow down still and become yours  again….

It is possible yeah, but I wanted to see positive trends today and we got steps back instead. Im more interested in the clipper threat behind this one for my area. That needs some work but has been trending favorably the past couple of runs on the gfs. This storm speeding up appears to have helped the wave spacing for the follow up threat.

29 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lots of white rain incoming 

Yep. Not our storm, it sped up a ton on the models today. Could be a good interior hit still though.

I’m gonna give it until 0z tonight, but if we are still seeing weak solutions by then yeah it’s time to admit that the Pope had the right idea. Very unfortunate to see the models taking steps back today.

Euro sucks, what a shame. Big high to the north, strong southern energy but I guess the pieces just don’t want to come together. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My guess is not like the 00z solution.  

Hopefully not worse. We need:

1. Deeper low

2. Low more north

3. slower storm

That said, big euro run coming up. We need to see the Euro double down, no steps back.

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Good about somewhere in new England getting hit. And the evolution has completely changed lol

True, low is more north. I agree that the evolution has changed, but it seems to have changed more favorably if anything.

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks kind of warm for him, no?

We are toast here regardless of track of this isn’t going to strengthen and drain some cold in.

Just yesterday you said you are feeling pretty good about this one. What happened?

I have a question about thermals. I’m looking at the guidance, and despite a mid 1030s mb high to the north the temps are in the 30s for a good amount of time. Wouldn’t you expect the temps to be A LOT colder given that we have a strong high to the north?  

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes we get it lol 

I don’t think the setup is as bad as he’s saying, but snowman does bring up a good point about snow ratios. On the 0z Euro for most of the storm the temps are hovering around 33-34 degrees. This does support snowman’s argument that 10:1 maps are overdone, as with temps in that range ratios typically are in the 7:1-5:1 range. However, this is an INCREDIBLY difficult forecast. What if the Euro is off 2 degrees and it’s actually 31? Then you are taking maybe 12:1. On the other hand, if it’s a couple degrees warmer it’s straight up rain. With that high to the north I would think it’s more likely we tick colder than warmer. 

Yep, low is more north and it deepens to the mid 980s. 

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This setup isn't awful. Yes the first half of the storm is rain but if the transfer happens quick and it's strong then we will flip to snow.

I think some of you are not paying attention to the trend of the PNA ridge out west.

Yeah the ridge is very amplified, there is also a mid 1030s high to the north.