George001

Looks like it’s going to be a bit too warm for my area for this threat, maybe an inch or 2 but not really expecting anything more.

It is currently stronger than normal but is expected to weaken a lot at the end of January on the latest weeklies run. For the 14th threat it looks like it will still be strong, but I’m not sure if it will be circular anymore or not. If it’s strong but elongated we can work with that.

i mentioned 2 days ago that I was of the opinion that this threat had the potential to develop into a severe Miller B nor’easter/blizzard, but it wasn’t a sure thing. This far out there are still a wide range of outcomes, with anything from a way OTS unphased system to a slow moving Miller B blizzard being possible. Right now if I had to make an estimate I’d say this threat has around a 35-40% chance at developing into a blizzard for all of SNE, which is quite high for this lead time but not enough to say we WILL get a blizzard for sure. As good as things look, I gotta pump the breaks a bit this far out.

In this pattern NE areas could benefit. Even if the low slides offshore initially, a late phase from the northern branch last minute could hook the low back in. This would screw the Mid Atlantic, but clobber eastern mass. That happened in the mid Feb 2015 blizzard.

The setup for the 14th is very interesting, on the models we have extremely mild SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean clashing with Canadian air filtering down from 1030s mb high to the north. The sharp thermal contrast supports explosive cyclogenesis as the low redevelops off the coast due to the confluence. We have extremely mild SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean, an atmosphere rich with water vapor due to severe volcanic activity, a strong high to the north, a strong piece of southern energy, northern energy diving in to phase (big wildcard right now, there is risk that this happens too late for us), and confluence to force secondary redevelopment. Therefore, I am of the opinion that if the northern energy does phase in, the low will deepen to the 960s easily, possibly even the 950s. Due to the lack of North Atlantic blocking this is a somewhat progressive pattern, so the solutions with the low SE of the benchmark make sense. However, with a storm this strong the precip shield would be so expansive that we could get into heavy snows even with a storm 100-200 miles SE of the benchmark. The late Jan blizzard last year, Jan 2015, and mid March 2018 all were SE of the benchmark, but we still got clobbered due to how expansive the precip shield was. The low does not need to go right over the benchmark for us to get big snows, anywhere from 200 miles SE to like 100 miles NW will do if the low deepens as much as I am expecting.

I don’t understand why people punted winter. It’s too early to give up.

Def too far South verbatim but EPS will be interesting. Gotta get more northern stream interaction like you mentioned a few posts ago.

You thinking this more of a Miller A or Miller B setup? It seems like the OP runs are more Miller A and the ensembles are more Miller B (this euro OP run I can’t really tell).

The December 2020 noreaster started as a cutter to Wisconsin, shifted to a mid Atlantic special in the mid range, then trended like 500 miles NW in the short range and hammered CNE and NNE with blizzard conditions. Even SNE got hit pretty hard with about 12-15 inches in eastern mass, more to the NW. The interesting thing about that storm was it cut pretty far NW, giving Chicago a blizzard. However, it redeveloped and turned into a Miller B, bringing blizzard conditions to New England as well. I don’t really agree with the whole “once a cutter always a cutter” thing, yeah it’s tougher to trend se from a cutter than it is to trend nw from an offshore coastal, but sometimes midwest cutters turn into Miller Bs.

We want a later phase than op gfs or Canadian right? Pattern looks somewhat progressive and the ensembles disagree with the OP so hoping for a later phase isn’t a bad spot to be in.

It’s January in New England, we don’t need frigid temps to snow. OP runs are useless this far out, the important thing is the ensembles have a signal.

Eps is really good, slow moving Miller B.

Western ridge axis is good but the confluence is too far south. Verbatim yeah I agree it’s out to sea, but that’s where we want it on the gefs this far out. Gfs and gefs has a progressive/zonal bias

I disagree that the warmth returns. The MJO is going into phases 8-1-2, and the long range models don’t seem to be catching on. In my opinion the long range will trend significantly colder due to this.

You think the 1/14 threat is more promising than the 12th? It looks like the airmass is a bit better so I’m almost hoping the 12th stays weak and the 14th blows up instead. The Pope brought up a good point about the ridging potentially taking us in eastern SNE out of the game.

Nice, hopefully it has the right idea. Big Euro run coming up

Agree, I’m not a fan of that setup. Airmass is bad and the low is too weak. 1/13 is the one to watch.

MJO is going into phase 8 and the models are showing a very strong low offshore. I did not mention anything about blizzard potential for the 6-7th, and 9-10th threats because the pattern doesn’t support it. The 13th period does have a lot of potential, maybe it won’t pan out but the pattern looks favorable during that window. We have been in a mild pattern but the pattern looks to turn favorable as we enter peak climo, so I have high hopes for the mid month period. If I bust like I did in December I’ll own up to it, but for now I’m sticking to my guns.

Yep, 1st threat looks more minor to moderate with the second threat having major nor’easter/blizzard potential. It isn’t just the Euro OP, eps, gefs, and geps have a signal as well.

Yeah I’m with the Pope on this one, it could be something but the pattern doesn’t support anything big. Thermals are marginal at best, so even if it does snow it would be a heavy wet low ratio snow. The low isn’t all that strong either, we need the pacific to improve for bigger threats.

Happy new year! To ring in 2023 the Pope has spoken, and it looks like he is saying no to the Jan 6-7th threat.

Sometimes the Pope pisses me off, but I don’t think we should ban him. Many of us, myself included, have our judgement clouded by 2 major sins against the Bible, greed and envy. When we are in the midst of our sinful ways, it means the devils influence is strong. When the devils influence is strong, it takes extreme measures to wake us up and get back on the right path. This often will mean being struck down by the angry hand of god. We need the Pope to keep us in check, when he gets angry we must ask ourselves “Why has the angry hand of god chosen to strike me today?”

That the bigger storm threat? It looks like the models have 2 threats now, one on the 7th and a bigger threat on the 9th (Miller B potential).

Glad to hear you are sticking to your guns on something big coming later in January. Its going to end up going down as a warm month because of how mild the first 10 days are expected to be, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have any snow chances. What’s interesting is your analogs actually are a little warmer than average for Jan despite a lot of them being snowy.

The Jan 7th threat on all guidance is an SWFE. It doesn’t look like anything special just a regular SWFE, which means 6-12 inches of snow, less south more north (12 only in elevations!) I’d like something bigger but I know I’m getting 6-8 inches of snow to sleet to drizzle and then slot on Jan 7th, nothing more nothing less. It is what it is.