Mount Joy Snowman

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Storms are already rapidly developing east of the river currently. 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

Already a nasty cell right over that same Columbia to Mount Joy corridor that got hit so hard a couple weeks ago.  Solid rain falling at my house.  And so it begins....

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Good point. Thoughts last week of temps approaching the century mark down here have ended up in the 93-95 range in reality. It helped it feel so much more refreshing to be outside. 

Haha I know wasn't it just lovely out!? 

Seriously though, my P&C even as recently as Tuesday morning had me at 97 for both Tuesday and Wednesday, whereas MDT and LNS topped out at 93/94 and 94/95 for those days, respectively.  Heck, even CXY went only 94/93; THV only 91/92.  As @Jns2183 mentioned, high Dews are the enemy of high temps, but the forecasts should certainly be factoring in all of that.  Not a huge bust or anything, just thought it was notable.  Heat indices were unbearable either way ha. 

Low of only 75.  Exciting day ahead.  While the humidity has certainly lived up to the hype, the temps at the official stations have come in a good bit lower than expected the last couple of days.

3 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Just had 2.71 rain from a thunderstorm that sat and back builded for over and hour. Rain rate was 3.57 at times during the downpour.. makes me worry what could happen tomorrow if we get heavy rain.

You know, I saw that happening earlier and was wondering if you were just inside of that cell. Amazing. 

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This sounds sorta ominous:
 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
*Elevated risk of excessive rain with some higher end flooding
 impacts possible across east-central/southeastern PA Thursday

SFC-850mb low pressure is progged to move along the southward
sinking frontal zone which continues to trend slower with its
equatorward progression. There also appears to be some enhanced
large scale lift to support +RA in the form of height falls and
right entrance region (RER) upper jet dynamics. High/efficient
rain rates within low topped warm rain convection combined with
ample deep layer moisture /1.5-2+" pwats/ will continue to
support an increasingly elevated excessive rain/flash flood risk
particularly across the southeastern portions of the area.

Some model guidance is also showing an inverted trough axis on
the NW side of the low track the could be a fulcrum point for
heavy rain. WPC (along with neighboring offices LWX/PHI/BGM)
discussed the possibility of upgrading the D2 ERO to a moderate
risk for eastern PA with this cycle, but given lingering QPF
detail uncertainty we decided to collectively stick with an
"enhanced" level 2 (out of 4) risk area for now. We will
continue to highlight the heavy/excessive rain and potential
significant flood threat in the HWO and IDSS partner briefings.

It certainly does.  There could definitely be some select spots that see torrential slow-moving rains tomorrow.  Hope it's not us. 

So it appears the Hawaii warnings were downgraded and minimal damage reported. Good news. Tomorrow’s dew points look like they could be the worst of the week, with relief not arriving until the overnight hours. We’ll see what tricks the storms pull. 

55 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

8.7 magnitude earthquake off Kamchatka peninsula in Russia. Strongest earthquake on Earth since 2011 Japan quake. 

 

Tsunami is confirmed. 

 

Edit: 8.8 magnitude earthquake. 3-12 feet waves possible in Hawai'i. Three to five feet possible in US West Coast. 

Yeah pretty wild. Hopefully the advanced warning will allow everyone out there to get safely inland. 

14 hours ago, canderson said:

95 at 5. Will get close to 100 tmrw. 
 

@Mount Joy Snowman where is MDT at the hottest ever June/July combined? CTP mentioned it’s about the honest start ever. 

Alright, I don't have access here at work to the site I would normally prefer for this type of question, but I used some other sources and can at least say the following with regard to MDT....

July should end up ~80.0, which, when combined with June's 73.8, should get us close to 77.  2024 immediately stands out as the GOAT with a mean June/July temp above 78 degrees.  Then there are a number of other years slightly above that 77 mark.  So, no I wouldn't say it's the hottest start ever, but yes I would say it's one of the warmest starts, top 5-10ish.  Depending how August goes, it has an outside chance of making a run at the Met Summer record.

13 hours ago, canderson said:

95 at 5. Will get close to 100 tmrw. 
 

@Mount Joy Snowman where is MDT at the hottest ever June/July combined? CTP mentioned it’s about the honest start ever. 

Hmmm not sure. I believe June was only about a degree AN so I would be a bit surprised, although July is certainly tracking near the top. I’ll see if I can look into this later this morning. 

Low of 71 with .03” of rain.  

Low of 71 with .9” of rain.  

Low of 71 with .21” of rain. 

You know it’s humid when even a T’storm rolling through can’t drop the temp below 80. About a tenth of an inch here. 

Low of 70 with dew points on the rise. 

11 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I like my 70 degree nights...

No thank you haha

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Heat advisories up. And they put this in today’s discussion.  
 

Ensemble data suggests pattern change is likely to evolve by
the end of the forecast period/beginning of August as the upper
level flow becomes more amplified, with the ridge building
north across the Rockies and a trough from Canada building
southward across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. This should
bring a return to much more pleasant conditions behind a cold
front on Thursday.

Yeah there's been some heavy hints in the modeling for a while now that the first week of August could be on the cool or comfortable side.  Don't think anyone would complin about that.  I'm sure the heat will return not too long after that. 

21 minutes ago, canderson said:

Fun game in Philly last night and weather was pretty comfy - a bit humid but hot bad. 

Wild game.  That homer Harper hit to go back-to-back with Schwarber was a BOMB.

Low of 67 with the heat and humidity making a return. 

4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Only managed a low of 65 down this way. 

I'm heading up PA Rt. 44 this weekend. I'll be very close to the Black Forest Inn if you know where that is. 

Very nice, looks like a cool little spot.  Always nice to escape the heat up that way.  Go another 10-15 miles north and you'd be at my buddy's cabin.  Have fun!

34 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Sounds awesome, and yeah, remebering how quickly our kids grew up, I can only imagine how much faster it'll go w/ grandkids.  You are lucky to have so much time with your little ones...hoping the same here.

Congrats on the grandson!  That has to be so exciting to get to relive those phases of life.  The years really do fly by, still can't believe ours are already 3 and 5.  It's amazing and sad all at the same time watching them grow up.  It just swells your heart.

65/64 when I left the house. A solid summer day on tap before we start to bring back the heat and humidity. 

60 when I left the house with a DP of 56 and one McDonalds breakfast. Glorious. 

Low of 66 with a rounded-up .01" of scattered big drops.   A nice dry week ahead, cool to start and hot to finish.  National high of 117 at Death Valley and Stovepipe Wells, CA and low of 32 at Foxpark, WY.  Carry on.

Low of 74 with a wicked humid day on tap before a beautiful few days settle in. Looks like end of the week may bring some real deal heat. Onward. 

Low of 69 with .04” of rain. 

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday look incredible. Temps in the 80s with dewpoints falling from the 60s into the upper 50s tomorrow and then mostly in the 50s (possibly upper 40s?!) by late Monday into Tuesday. 

I think we've earned the reprieve. 

Yep, going to be glorious.  We'll be on the river tomorrow.