Mount Joy Snowman

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Its like the anti NAM right now.  Hard to buy into either of them with almost opposite reflections of the SLP.  One inland and the other a Miller A like LSV crusher. 

Very true but certainly more support for the Ukie at this moment, albeit not overwhelmingly so.  The 12z Euro run coming up here is huge, should really be in its wheelhouse at this point. 

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I like having the Ukie on my side - I think it often gets overlooked but it's overall verification scores are pretty good. We're building a pretty good team for Thursday. 

Agreed on all accounts.

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hey I’m on my phone. Can someone take a look at 12z models for Wednesday in north east Texas over to Dallas and let me know they say?  Thanks in advance. 

Temps in upper teens to low 20s at this point and they don't seem to rise much from there.  QPF around a half inch for most throughout the day.

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks for posting that, I hadn't seen it yet. Sounds like he's warming up to a more wintry event, which is good. 

Yes it seems like he's coming around.  You aren't kidding about the Ukie! 2M, 925, 850 and 700 temps all look to hold throughout the duration of the storm for most of the forum too.  Color me intrigued. 

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well, you have Horst on your side which definitely gives me pause. He's been saying that Thursday is a rainer in Lanco. 

Latest from Horst......

(1/2) Keeping with the recent trend...tonight's system is rather weak & north-tracking. Temps are marginal, but colder outlying and low lying areas may get some front-end ice...whereas milder areas (and treated surfaces) may see mainly plain rain. #StayAware

(2/2) The next system in the queue looks stronger and more impactful with snow developing before daybreak Thursday...then an extended period of sleet/freezing rain Thursday midday and afternoon. Definitely not a good day for travel, especially heading northward.

7 minutes ago, Yonk1216 said:

Really BGM????.... no active watches or warnings for those counties in NEPA???

We are literally surrounded by alerts!

Haha no love for the Wyoming Valley. 

Now THIS is not a map you see everyday. Amazing. 

20 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I'm bummed.  It looks like sometime this afternoon Pivotal Weather took away the ability to hover over a graphical spot on a map and have its value displayed.  That's true for all the maps as far as I can tell.  Obviously I can still get approximations since the MDT value is always plotted.  But I'm so used to getting the exact temperature or qpf or snowfall.  It was there this morning but when I got back late this afternoon it was gone.  Does this mean that I have to subscribe in order to get that feature restored?  They offer a month-to-month subscription for $6.99 / month.  I certainly wouldn't mind paying for Feb and March.  They add some nice features in like zoomed in state level graphics and other stuff.  Are any others experiencing this same issue (with Pivotal Maps)?

Yes I was having the same issue earlier but now it appears to be working again, at least for the short range models.  Just checked and the hover feature is working fine for the Euro too but not the GFS.  Maybe just a temporary glitch, who knows......

Euro still with the ice to the south snow to the north theme for Monday night into Tuesday and holding onto the coastal idea for Thursday.  One way or another it's looking like one hell of a messy week ahead.

Just now, paweather said:

Just look at Thursday. My goodness. 

Oh I know my friend, that's actually the one I've been keeping a keen eye on because I have to drive to the Poconos that day.  Looks downright treacherous with that low level cold refusing to budge until late in the act, really hoping for a Euro coastal look.  My plans may have to change, especially given what we saw in that horrendous video out of Fort Worth.  Man that was tough to watch, never seen anything quite like it. 

GFS cuts the low across Virginia resulting in an ice storm for much of the LSV, snow in the I80 and north corridor, and battleground in the middle susquehanna valley.  Interesting.

Just now, paweather said:

ICON was snow to rain to snow for next Tuesday. 

Thanks, I use e-Wall and Pivotal and they don't include ICON and JMA.  I assume you use TT for those?  I will say e-Wall has had some issues lately but that's long been my go-to, feel like I'm at the helm of a nuclear control room when I'm on that site, love it haha.

Welp the nam/rdps/wrf/nmmb all basically say no dice to the weekend event, outside of perhaps some light scattered snizzle.....let's see what the gfs/cmc/ecmwf have to say for next week

To me, and as a number of you have mentioned, by far the biggest story of the pattern is the inability of the truly arctic air centered over the central part of the country to bleed its way east.  I mean, considering what all the models were advertising for most of the past week it's pretty stunning to see where things are heading.  Disappointing really, as I was looking forward to some icebox temps, to say nothing of the fact that snow is likely off the table for most of the LSV now as well.  Not giving up yet but trends are less than ideal.

24 hour snowfall was one of the more uniform distributions I've seen across CTP land recently, with almost all reports within the 1.5"-3.5" range and only a couple minor lollipops out in the typical hotspots of the Laurels.

11 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Hello Mount Joy Snowman!  I work in Mount Joy.  How much did you get?  I am at home in YNS.

Hello anotherman!  I used to take the train from Mount Joy everyday and hopefully will again if we ever get back to working in-person.  I got 2.0" on the nose.  Not bad, was hoping to squeeze out 3-4 but was always hesitant given that northeastern cutoff gradient that had be showing up on most of the models for days on end.  On to the net one....

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I hope for once the GFS is right. It has been AWFUL this winter - I mean, on the 0z run last night it was still showing 6" for me overnight. I ended up with less than 2". For the 2 big storms we did get this year it was the last to the party. I'm more trusting of the NAM these days than the GFS. Hopefully the Para is better. 

Boy you aren't kidding about the GFS and I have my doubts about the Para, whenever I've cross-checked it (you know, when it's actually up and running ha) I have not been impressed.  I love the NAM and always have, don't care who knows it.  It can be a VERY useful tool.  Odd that I did a touch better than you with this event, not that .2" is very meaningful, but I've noticed in checking the boards this season that you usually come in a bit higher than me, which I guess is to be expected with you being a bit further west and having almost 100' of elevation on me.  What can I say, it's the little things that intrigue me.  Carry on.....

2.0" here, a beautiful look outside.  Looks like loads of precip in the pipeline for the next week or so, just a matter of how it falls.  Stay tuned.

30/25 light snow, deck covered.  All the Mesos say a couple to perhaps a few inches around here.  I'll take it.

36 minutes ago, dcfox1 said:

Your really close to me. I am at the top of Chickies hill  back a lane off Klinesville Rd. 

Okay yep, my buddy's parents live on one of those newer plots off of Klinesville and 441.  You have 200' of elevation on me, doesn't sound like much but can make quite a difference in marginal events.  I'll be curious to see how your totals compare to mine in certain situations.

29 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Let me know if you and whomever else is local ever wants to meet at the cork n fork downtown on a Friday fir happy hour. I usually bartend there til 4pm on Fridays and easily get a table and some deals for a group


.

Nice!  I normally work in Harrisburg, used to take the train every day, but we've been working from home since last March.  Who the heck knows when The Guv will let us come back.

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Welcome! You are close to me - I live just outside of Maytown on the Mount Joy side very close to the air strip. 

Nice, I'm very familiar with that area.  I feel like I know some of you already just from reading the boards ha.  Also, whoever brought up Married With Children earlier, god bless you, I love that show and don't care what that makes me.  Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.....

Howdy gents (and ladies if there are any out there), I'm a long time lurker of various weather forums but decided to finally take the plunge and join.  Been keeping fairly detailed weather data going on ten years now for my location here just south of Mount Joy in Lancaster County.  I live at the base of Chickies Ridge (Chiques if ya like), on the north side, at a low elevation of only ~360 ft.  I'm prone to some pretty decent inversions on calm clear winter nights where I'll often be 5-10 degrees colder than up on the ridge.  Of course, the opposite is true in all other scenarios, which is the vast majority of the time ha.  Anyway, now that I told you a bit about myself, let's get to tracking.  Too many impulses coming through in the next week to not cash the goods on something.  Seemed like the perfect time to join, cheers!