TimB

On 1/22/2024 at 7:37 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Actually even more than that. We’re already at +3.9. Looking at the forecast to close out the month, could be +4.2 or 4.3.

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Same time.

Oof. If that’s where we are as of 2/14, and even if it quickly reverses after that, there are 4, maybe 5 at most, weeks left where snow would be viable.

It seems we’re running out of time yet again. Looks warm after the suppressed storm next week and it’ll be mid February before anything could even possibly flip, which is still not a guarantee. The past, present, and future weather at this juncture is, indeed, soul crushing.

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Up to 5.02” of precipitation on the month, which is good for 9th most in the threaded record. Actually, back to 1836 if you include the Allegheny Arsenal records as in the NWS Pittsburgh table: https://www.weather.gov/pbz/climate

Some more rain moving in this morning, so there will be an opportunity to move up on the list. Looks like only two wetter Januarys since 1950: 1978 & 2005.

Remarkably, the majority of that January 1978 precip fell as snow. 6.25” of precip and 40.2” of snow that month, for the snowiest January and 3rd snowiest month on record.

Also looks like we’ve set yet another daily precip record, our 3rd since Christmas. With 150+ years of records, we’d be expected to get less than 3 of those per year, and now we’ve had 3 in about a month.

I know it’s just the Canadian, but LOL. 982mb low in a great spot in early Feb and the entire precip shield is rain.

Just now, Ahoff said:

If only we could get a repeat.

November 1950 and other similar storms also had tremendous amounts of cold air that they were able to tap into, so they didn’t result in two days of snow with temperatures hovering at or just above freezing.

5 minutes ago, TimB said:

Can someone come up with storm that’s taken a similar track? I’m striking out.

Nevermind. Duh. November 1950. 

34 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Wouldn't the very fact that the low moves inland into New Jersey indicate that this storm wouldn't be all snow for the coast?  That account seems to be a bit dramatic, but that doesn't look like an all snow friendly system for the coast.  I'd take it for us, but that even looks like a nearly impossible track.

Can someone come up with storm that’s taken a similar track? I’m striking out.

53 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Please keep posting these. It’s extremely relevant 

I’m sure he’d post record lows if we ever got those too. But I agree, record highs and warm lows are less interesting now that we get at least one a month.

That weird thing the storm does at the end of the Euro would be nice and give us lots of snow, but isn’t really plausible.

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

72 here now.  Apparently DCA hit 80 and both DCA and IAD are at their highest Jan temp ever.   Valley life winning today for those in the LSV. 

How do we know that the location where DCA is now didn’t hit 80 in January 1374?

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes it is, and thank you for validating my point. Appreciate it Tim! 

I’ve read enough here to have seen plenty of bitching about how hot MDT’s obs is compared to literally anywhere nearby, whether it’s night, day, summer, winter, whatever.

Just now, paweather said:

Let the clown show begin. 

 

 

I’m contradicting climate changer’s thoughts here, not agreeing with them.

Let’s put that to rest:

PWS in the Harrisburg area seem to be consistently 48-50, consistent with MDT’s obs.

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Umm...so how do you then explain all of the other 40s showing up that are many miles from the river?

Look, I don't want to fight. But what you just stated...well, your implication is way off on this one. 

Isn’t MDT consistently one of the hottest places in central PA?

34 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Wait - time out. Not sure who you “some of you” are. I have no issues with “climate change talk”. 

I have issues with the flat out obsession of a poster (or three) obsessing over every slice of data that might show a a degree or two warmer for *this* area. Local sensible weather (esp snowfall) has not declined here over extended periods

For 15+ years (going back to eastern), this thread has been about winter storm chasing. Sure we can acknowledge if it’s warm, etc. But some weird slice of data everyday?

I mean look at the Buffalo thread from last year. Climate Changer had 9 posts in a row about Lake Erie being a half degree warmer or some shit. Those guys went to Discord. They want to talk about chasing their 2-4’ lake band. 

So again…it’s not about the topic or the science. It’s about the place and frequency. 

18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, I don't think I chased them to Discord. It was one of the last posts in the thread, because they had already moved to Discord. 

Whoa, back the damn truck up. They moved to discord because of some stuff in the off topic circus that got dragged into their thread, involving one poster and one staff member in particular.

10 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

maybe im not understnding these charts the way they are suppsed to be understood, but i did the same thing for Des Moines, IA (an area highlights but -50% snowfall). This is what I got. 

The -50% snowfall is for Sept-Nov (early season snow). In theory, in a place like Des Moines, a loss of most of their fall snow could really eff their seasonal totals.

17 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Had a feeling we’d overperform big time. Looks like our high today will be 64.

19 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

It’s amazing how triggered some of you get at any hint of climate change talk 

A weather forum, but the only weather you’re allowed to talk about is snow.

Today’s low of 53 was tied with two other dates for 9th warmest January low at Pittsburgh International. All 11 have come since 1993. There were no days from 1952-1992 with a low of 53 or above in January.

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

He’s popping the champagne to celebrate his forecast. Interesting way to verify a forecast. Instead of using the climatological normal of 11.7 inches, use the significantly lower moving 10- and 20-year averages. Also the 10-year average is 8.8 inches, not 8.1. And the 20 year average doesn’t actually include 20 years as there were no snow observations for much of the 2000s at AVP.

And just ignore temperatures altogether. They don’t matter. And forget the entire month of December. Just toss that into the trash.

 

I appreciate what you’re trying to point out here, but data from actual official climate sites is significantly less valuable than data from a poorly sited weather station in the backyard of a Chester County home.

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

Take this shit out of this thread before I report every one of your posts. You ruined this thread last month and ran off some great regulars, it won't happen again. Get on with ya. 

I’m out. Hope @ChescoWxcan get out and enjoy the warmth and an early taste of spring without having to pretend it’s cold.

1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

Certainly not warm with staying power for February

Above normal temperatures = warm

Sustained for two weeks = with staying power

Hope this helps.

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

How did we manage to do it at the same time? 

Easy. I used the TimB account in Safari and the climate changer account in Chrome.

Just now, TimB said:

Temps averaging 45/30 and basically staying there for two weeks is still an extended period of above normal temps.

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Highs in the mid 40s, with lows barely below freezing, are cold for early February in Chester County? 

God damnit, I didn’t mean to post this on both of my accounts.