TimB

...and now the Euro brings another rain/mix storm across the region late next week, and is some 40 degrees higher than the last run for that timeframe. What’s more, there are only two days (Monday and Monday) where the low temperature drops below 15. Simply put, we’re not getting a cold snap and we’re not getting much snow this month. Unbelievable.

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Models still aren't exciting me.  Sunday is still too far east, a few runs bring us very little snow, or a front instead of the storm.  Interesting though that a lot show a storm to the east and a front coming from the west.

Euro still has a few nights below 0, GFS much less cold.

GFS seems to be a more active pattern but no significant snow events. The Euro puts us close to -10 Fri/Sat, the 6z GFS puts us there Sat/Sun before dragging yet another system with more rain/mix than snow up the coast early the following week. 
 

Edit: I lied, not rain since temps will be below freezing based on that model. But a half inch of snow and not that much QPF.

Alas, that magnitude of cold disappeared from the models (though I think we get at least one subzero morning at some point. What day or days that will be is anyone’s guess). And confidence seems to be increasing that we finally get a colder than average February after several unseasonably warm ones. And maybe some good snow! (Though, again, when and how much seems to widely vary.)

5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

here is the top 10 coldest three day lows on record.  If the GFS has the right idea for Feb 14-16, we are looking at a top 5 cold outbreak.

Incredibly rare in February, considering both of the February outbreaks in that table were actually the same cold wave.

21 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I admit I was kind of excited in ‘94 to get to -22. Felt like I was seeing history and so I definitely rooted for it. But I can probably take or leave extreme cold at this point. 

I could take or leave extreme heat, but I was rooting for 100 when the models were showing it for a time this past summer.

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Also, would have to be the coldest in a few decades.

Someone can probably verify this but I’m going to say anecdotally we haven’t been below -10 since that infamous day in 1994.

30 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Stolen from a met from the Mid Atlantic forum

 

I know everyone here is very interested in mainly the snow chances for the extended, but I cannot understate how insane this cold signature is for the entire CONUS on guidance right now. This would rival some of the top cold outbreaks of all time. Even the ensembles are hinting at some historic level cold over the country. There will be lots of squall potential in this setup too with that Valentines Day period that @Eskimo Joe brought up above my post as the most aggressive time frame for it. Globals will not see that squall potential until it's within short range either. Bundle up

GFS is showing three days in a row from Feb. 14-16 that have PIT colder than any temperature ever recorded so late in the winter season. Obviously a long way to go until then and it will change about 100 times, but -15 on Valentine’s Day is unprecedented (at this juncture, the Euro also shows negative double digits that morning).

4 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

It’s still early in February, there’s no reason to think it won’t get below 8.  Still a chance we get near 0 next week.  There was a stretch just before this warm stretch where February’s were cold.  It’ll go back.  Plus, so far this month doesn’t look all that warm, just not ridiculously cold.

I’m aware that February 2015 was one of the coldest months relative to normal ever recorded at PIT outside of those ridiculous winters of the ‘70s, and that it’s still recent history. To be fair, I also thought we’d never see another May below normal and I was proven wrong last year (though we still almost ended up above normal despite an absurdly cold first half of the month).

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

1952-1954 only dropped to 5 at the lowest over the three years.  From 49-54, one of six years dropped below 0.  Where on the flip side 2014-2019 (very recently), five out six years went below zero, with the sixth year reaching 0.

I wouldn't worry about not reaching below 0 again.  This year, maybe, but not never again.

And yet, even in that time period, there were never consecutive winters where the temperature never went below 8. What’s more concerning to me is that for the past 5 years, February has been basically the first month of spring (about 5 degrees above normal on average), and I’m concerned that it’s not going to change this year. Or that we’re in the midst of a second stretch in less than 6 years of 18 consecutive months above normal.

3 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Are you actually being serious?  That's an absurb claim.  Just two years ago we dropped below 0.

My apologies, I agree that it’s absurd. That was just me, a self-proclaimed unapologetic cold weather enthusiast venting my frustration that our shot at a true Arctic blast, and probably our last shot at subzero temperatures this winter, vanished right before our eyes. With that being said, the 1981-2010 average absolute minimum for DJF at PIT is 0, which would indicate that in approximately half of winters, the temperature drops below that at least once, so I wouldn’t say we dropped below zero “just” two years ago, as it’s statistically expected that would occur every two years. In fact, it’s very possible with this new trend in models that we could hit 3 years since the temperature even dropped to 5F at PIT (1/31/19 - _/_/22), and I’m wondering if that would be a record.

8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

One thing this winter has lacked is serious arctic air. Hopefully we get a nice arctic front to roll through with some white bands and then we can get a big storm. I think the models are gonna have a hard time with figuring out everything for a bit. The NAO and AO are negative. We should be going into phase 8 of the MJO and the only issue is that pesky SE ridge. 

I like your optimism. I could even live with 47 on Tuesday if it’s followed by -15 by Saturday.

6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Models are pulling back on the Arctic blast, maybe a delayed but not denied type deal, but what was once looking pretty brutal has moderated due to the trend to pop a ridge in the East in response to splitting the PV rather than one elongated piece of the PV with majority of the energy in the East.

Now look at today, PV is split with the stronger piece out west, pumping a ridge that connects all the way up the NAO block. Throw a storm into that 500 map and you can see anything that develops would likely go to the west of us and pump heights even more with SW flow ahead of it. Recipe for a warm up for sure.

Going a few days out from here the piece of PV out west rotates eastward and I would think some cold will follow. That of course assuming that progression is correct.

 

I would say more likely denied than delayed, as that’s what almost always happens in Pittsburgh. I firmly believe we’ll never see another subzero temperature here, or another February that averages below the calculated normals.

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

47!  The previous run had it snowing and 18 degrees on Tuesday!  What the Hell is going on?

Yes, drives a low from the MO/AR/TN border to Lake Erie, which would put us firmly in the warm sector.

Is this level of model spread typical of Arctic outbreaks in this region?

Why is the latest Euro showing 47 for next Tuesday at Pittsburgh? What is happening?!?!?!