TimB

3 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Your bar for cold is pretty high. 12 degrees out right now, and hasn’t hit 40 this month. Hasn’t hit 50 since just after Christmas. Some bitter cold still chances in the pipeline

Not sure if “84” is your birth year...but if it is...trust me it will start to feel colder the next 10 years 

I recognize that it’s truly irrational of me to enjoy seeing remarkable weather like a nice brutal cold snap - it’s certainly not comfortable, my house has plumbing that doesn’t enjoy it, and of course a few people die during periods of extreme weather. I also recognize that the 50 degree thing is remarkable in and of itself, on Thursday it will make it into the top 3 all time at Pgh International to begin a calendar year.

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

We had one of our best months ever this season...simmer down.

Valid point. Can’t have it all, and it’s nice to be worried about “how much snow?” and “how much cold?” rather than “will it ever snow?” or “will it ever get cold?” or “how many February days will hit 76 degrees or more this year?”

At the end of the day, while we likely won’t hit -10 or 75 this month, one is certainly exponentially more likely than the other.

Side note: after all this time I’ve spent bashing the GFS, the Euro is now showing us as almost the coldest spot in the lower 48 next week at this time. 

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Are you KPITTS alt account. You are so negative on every post. Stop just looking at model runs and taking them as gospel. 

I’m as much a fan of cold as I am as a fan of snow, which is to say a pretty big fan. These seemingly endless streaks of above normal months that have become so common, especially in the past five years, are exhausting.

Sure enough, the 18z GFS continues the trend of screwing us on snow this week. No remarkable snow, no remarkable cold, just a typical February with slightly below average temps. Maybe we can at least keep our streak of sub-freezing low temps alive and continue our streak of not hitting 50. On a day that will likely end with having to watch Tom Brady win yet another Super Bowl, this run of the GFS might be the most depressing moment of the day.

45 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

What causes that Wed-Fri storm to kind of have a blow up on early Fri?

Good thing is GFS and Euro both have this type of storm, and really we're less than 5 days from the start.  Also, they both have an event Tuesday, so good news there as well.

Euro brings cold too.  Valentine's morning is -4.

Snow totals seem to be steady or slightly down from prior run. GFS is actually showing a low 11 for the same time period  where the Euro is -4, but the GFS brings similar cold Monday morning so it’s still a possibility.

35 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

We've had a few storms this year that were all snow that really had no business being all snow, last week's comes to mind.  The low was directly west of us and we were snowing.  Could be this follows too.

We just need a good overrunning event.

I suppose it’s just my PTSD from the Great Rainstorm of January 19, 2019 acting up again.

11 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, The Weather Channel is going with 4-8" on Wednesday and another 2-4" Thursday.

Still not convinced this is an all snow event, though if most of the QPF falls on the front end before the warmer air blasts in on Thursday, we could get a decent system. I trust TWC over Accuweather most of the time because Accuweather loves to put freezing rain in the forecast when it really isn’t a possibility (see their current forecast for Saturday evening, for example).

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Accuweather is liking next Thursday for a 4-6" event already.

The Euro, and to a somewhat lesser extent, GFS agree. It seems Accuweather, TWC, etc. have gotten on board. The NWS, of course, is carrying its “a chance (50%) of snow showers” wording that it carries for most winter events that are more than 72 hours out around here.

This pattern is trending much snowier and “warmer” (though still below average). I’d be willing to give up on the polar vortex if (1) we get some decent snow events, (2) we finally end our 8 month long streak of above normal temperatures and our 5 year long streak of above normal temperatures in February, and (3) we end our unprecedented streak of not dropping below 8 for two consecutive winters.

18 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

How much is spent specifically on runing / improving the GFS? Personally I think it would be a mistake to just kill the GFS and rely on foreign agencies / governments for our weather models. (Not saying this is what you think should happen). Don't forget the Euro is at least partially privately funded and is allowed to use data from satellites etc the GFS cannot (Russian / Chinese) No doubt it has an edge in the physics department as well as a higher resolution but the GFS still schools it on pattern recognition sometimes and usually in medium to longer range forecasts you see some sort of compromise.

Anyways, looks like single digits Monday morning. NWS calling less than an inch for tomorrow.

I think ultimately this is probably a different discussion for a different day, but I don’t see an issue with these types of things being partially privately funded or using Russian/Chinese data. I would say it’s similar to my views on (to borrow an example from a completely different field, and of course both are private companies) Boeing vs. Airbus. One is unquestionably superior, despite not being American, and when I book a flight, I try to make sure I end up on a plane built by that superior company.

I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that most in the weather enthusiast community are intelligent, critical thinkers who recognize that “American” doesn’t necessarily mean “better” or “preferable,” or even “should be used simply because it’s American.” On the same critical thinking token, I’m going to assume that weather enthusiasts find scientific accuracy important and are not typically of the opinion that “we shouldn’t use Russian/Chinese data, even if it allows us to produce better forecasts, because Russia/China is bad.”

32 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

GFS has a cold bias in the long range. So I'd take any cold it's showing let alone record negative double digits with several grains of salt until closer in time and corroboration from other guidance.

That being said, way to far out to know what will happen end of next week in terms of any storm. Can't expect models to lock onto the correct outcome at this point. Looks like we have a shot at a couple lighter snows earlier this week, focus on those for now if you want to save yourself some stress and irritation.

I’m just going to go on the record and say that I’m not expecting -19 or even double digits below zero, but to me, if the GFS forecasts a temperature like that and then the Euro ends up verifying with lows in the mid-teens above zero, that is just another nail in the coffin of proving that the GFS is an undeniably inferior model that isn’t worth our tax dollars. We’re not talking about a model being off by 10 degrees a week out. We’re talking about 40 degrees or so at some junctures. I’m not fully on board the “stop wasting our tax dollars on the GFS” train, but I’m a lot closer to it than some are.

18 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

It's just like predicting a snow storm. They always air on the side of caution. Not too many Mets go high for our area. Denardo maybe the only person who was willing to predict a foot. Usually you have Jeff V saying snow showers for anything under 6 inches. 

Agree on all counts, forecasting conservatively a week out is really the only option. The latest GFS nudged about 10 degrees warmer and will likely fall in line at some point. As for “snow showers,” I’ve seen the NWS be guilty of that too, many times. 

The differences between the GFS and the Euro for next weekend are absolutely mind-boggling. Euro brings us slightly below average temps, GFS is suggesting an all time record low max (-5) for Sunday after a morning low of -19 (and negative double digits as far south as Georgia). I’m sure we end up somewhere in between, but we all know the Euro usually “knows” things the GFS doesn’t.

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I mean technically yes, but 28 degrees is still cold vs. 21 degrees.  At least it hasn’t been highs of 45 and lows above freezing. Plus, already surpassing average seasonal snow totals.  We’re doing alright.

Could definitely be worse.

Certainly true. Even with the above average lows, we’ve dipped below freezing for 22 days in a row and counting. The longest such streak last year was 12.

4 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Only above average because of above average lows, but still cold overall.  December's average high was perfectly average and the January's was .1 degree above average (essentially) average.  It has been seasonably cold in my book.

I see where you’re coming from. In my book, lows are part of the picture when it comes to determining if a time period has been “warm” or “cold.” It’s merely a difference of opinion.

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Very much disagree.  I guess your definition of cold is below 0.  But honestly it has been cold this year, no two ways about it.  Many days under 40, heck January didn't even hit 50 for the first time in 18 years, when we reached 71 in January last year.  I has been cold, just not bitter.

From Dec. 2019-Feb. 2020 there were six 60 degree or higher days, and twenty-four days at 50 or higher.

From Dec. 2020-today there has been one 60 degree day, and six days at 50 or higher.

It has been cold.

There have been fewer warm days than last year, but a similar lack of cold days. Both December and January were above normal for temperature. “Cold” to me means at or below normal for the season.

The last period of anomalous cold we had that lasted more than a day or two was in May. We had anomalously warm periods that lasted several days or more in: July, October, and November, to name a few off the top of my head. What was the last season to come in below average? Spring of 2018? Or did that ridiculously warm May where all 31 days were above average do enough to overcome March and April?

5 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Severe cold rarely leads to big snow, the pattern required for that is usually dry. Don't get me wrong, I don't mind an Arctic blast if we have a solid snow pack or a big overrunning event with snow in the low 20s. 

The models are waffling with features (mainly the orientation / position of the PV) which in turn have downstream effects such as either pumping or squashing SE Ridge.

I'd rather have cold enough and keep the boundary just to the South of us and get a chance to roll the dice as storms ride along it.

I still think it's possible we get a blast of Arctic air at some point this month, maybe coldest of the winter. Legit cold air is nearby now so it would only take a brief interlude of cold favorable indices to deliver a shot.

That boundary seems to be in a position on the models where any storms that ride through here will produce more rain or mix than snow, and no cold air to be found behind it. After last year’s fake “winter,” I guess I’m just missing the cold and snow that should be typical of Pittsburgh winters. We’ve gotten plenty of the snow, in fact we officially clinched an above average snowfall season this week (but of course I’d love more). But we’ve gotten the same amount of cold as last winter, which is to say none.

...and now the Euro brings another rain/mix storm across the region late next week, and is some 40 degrees higher than the last run for that timeframe. What’s more, there are only two days (Monday and Monday) where the low temperature drops below 15. Simply put, we’re not getting a cold snap and we’re not getting much snow this month. Unbelievable.

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Models still aren't exciting me.  Sunday is still too far east, a few runs bring us very little snow, or a front instead of the storm.  Interesting though that a lot show a storm to the east and a front coming from the west.

Euro still has a few nights below 0, GFS much less cold.

GFS seems to be a more active pattern but no significant snow events. The Euro puts us close to -10 Fri/Sat, the 6z GFS puts us there Sat/Sun before dragging yet another system with more rain/mix than snow up the coast early the following week. 
 

Edit: I lied, not rain since temps will be below freezing based on that model. But a half inch of snow and not that much QPF.

Alas, that magnitude of cold disappeared from the models (though I think we get at least one subzero morning at some point. What day or days that will be is anyone’s guess). And confidence seems to be increasing that we finally get a colder than average February after several unseasonably warm ones. And maybe some good snow! (Though, again, when and how much seems to widely vary.)

5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

here is the top 10 coldest three day lows on record.  If the GFS has the right idea for Feb 14-16, we are looking at a top 5 cold outbreak.

Incredibly rare in February, considering both of the February outbreaks in that table were actually the same cold wave.

21 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I admit I was kind of excited in ‘94 to get to -22. Felt like I was seeing history and so I definitely rooted for it. But I can probably take or leave extreme cold at this point. 

I could take or leave extreme heat, but I was rooting for 100 when the models were showing it for a time this past summer.

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Also, would have to be the coldest in a few decades.

Someone can probably verify this but I’m going to say anecdotally we haven’t been below -10 since that infamous day in 1994.

30 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Stolen from a met from the Mid Atlantic forum

 

I know everyone here is very interested in mainly the snow chances for the extended, but I cannot understate how insane this cold signature is for the entire CONUS on guidance right now. This would rival some of the top cold outbreaks of all time. Even the ensembles are hinting at some historic level cold over the country. There will be lots of squall potential in this setup too with that Valentines Day period that @Eskimo Joe brought up above my post as the most aggressive time frame for it. Globals will not see that squall potential until it's within short range either. Bundle up

GFS is showing three days in a row from Feb. 14-16 that have PIT colder than any temperature ever recorded so late in the winter season. Obviously a long way to go until then and it will change about 100 times, but -15 on Valentine’s Day is unprecedented (at this juncture, the Euro also shows negative double digits that morning).

4 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

It’s still early in February, there’s no reason to think it won’t get below 8.  Still a chance we get near 0 next week.  There was a stretch just before this warm stretch where February’s were cold.  It’ll go back.  Plus, so far this month doesn’t look all that warm, just not ridiculously cold.

I’m aware that February 2015 was one of the coldest months relative to normal ever recorded at PIT outside of those ridiculous winters of the ‘70s, and that it’s still recent history. To be fair, I also thought we’d never see another May below normal and I was proven wrong last year (though we still almost ended up above normal despite an absurdly cold first half of the month).