TimB

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Could go w/ a 45% on the afternoon update if observations start to line up with forecasts.

The day nobody likes to mention didn’t have a 45% until the afternoon update.

   This is an uncommon, upper-echelon parameter space.  In such an
   environment, any relatively discrete supercells will be capable of
   multiple tornadoes, some long-tracked and strong to violent (EF2-5
   possible), with considerable destructive potential.  A very moist
   boundary layer also will reduce potential cold-pool/outflow strength
   via less subcloud evaporation, so that even closely spaced storms
   may have substantial tornado threats.  Forecast wind fields and
   model soundings reasonably suggest any sustained supercells and
   their tornadoes will be fast-moving (45-55 kt), with individual
   tornado paths nearly as long in miles as their duration in minutes.

That sounds about as ominous as it gets.

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I would not bet on anything being right that far out... human or model but if it comes to fruition I would have to give the GFS a little credit for seeing it out in the 300+ hr range.  

As the saying goes, even a blind squirrel...

(can we still use that saying in this day and age?)

9 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

and intense refers to EF+3?  Very confusing, especially since last week their hatched area indicated a 10% chance of an EF2-EF5 tornado.

Not saying I like the terminology, just saying I’ve always been of the understanding that there is a specific distinction between those terms among meteorologists.

3 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

what I'm more interested in is how often the word "violent" is used in the 1730z d2 outlook that didn't precede an outbreak with at least one ef3+. 

I thought for sure they did last week, but it looks like they used the terms "strong" and "intense" instead.  I have to wonder if they're just using those terms interchangeably with violent or if their word use really is that specific.

By definition, “strong” refers to EF2+, “violent” refers to EF4+.

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

4/6/1982 - I had a high of 29 with nearly 9" of windblown snow. Coldest day in April I've experienced...by a good bit. 

I should clarify, “nearly unprecedented” meaning there is only one April day in Pittsburgh’s history with a high of 27 or lower. There are a fair number of April days in our records including two in 2007 where we didn’t make freezing.

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

When it gets out past 240 hours, there is not much more to look at for 2M temps except the GFS but yea everything is a grain of salt with GFS discussion.  With that said the CMC shows the freeze now as well and it has been doing much better with temps. So still something to watch. Temps do not break freezing on April 2nd/Good Friday.  

 

 

Verbatim, the CMC shows a high somewhere around 27 at my location (KPIT) on 4/2. That’s nearly unprecedented, save for a high of 25 on April 18th!, 1875.

Well on our way to our first 70 degree day, we’re 6 degrees ahead of 24 hours ago and we hit 67 yesterday.

High wind watch for Friday - I know these almost always become advisories and not warnings, but something to watch.

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I try my best not to be critical of models, but this is why I questioned @Bubbler86 the other day about if any other model was showing our area going into the deep freeze in early April - the GFS to me seems to be REALLY lost these days...(at least the previous version)

The only model I feel “authorized” to criticize is the GFS since our tax dollars pay for it. And it’s been a disaster lately.

19 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

And I thought they just upgraded the GFS?

 

The upgraded GFS is still pumping out sh*t like this (it did completely disappear on the following runs), so obviously that cold bias is still there.

17 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Lol, all in good fun.  I will say, I wanted to see that -15 too, but I like extreme wintry records in winter and very summery ones in summer.  So, while I'd like to see -15, I also would like to see 100.
 

So, I guess the answer to your previous question, I guess that for every one person that loves 90 and a 70 dew point, there's one that loves 0 and a -20 wind chill.

I must say that’s actually pretty close to my viewpoint and probably that of many weather enthusiasts - that extreme seasons are a lot more fun than average ones. Fortunately we live in the type of climate where no matter what kind of weather you prefer, there will be plenty of times you’ll be overjoyed with the weather and plenty of times where you’ll be completely exasperated with it.

The Mrs. sometimes tosses around the idea of moving elsewhere but if it’s a place without four seasons as varied as ours are, that might be “irreconcilable differences,” lol (and I’m only half kidding).

(But I wouldn’t be opposed to living in this fantasy world the GFS lives in - without looking at climate records, this looks like a close cousin to those -19 lows in February that the models toyed with. It comes with a modest amount of snow too. Edit: Good thing that feature completely flipped with the next two runs.)

29 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Says the guy that wanted it to be -15, lol!

Knew I’d get called out for this and figured it’d be you, haha. You know I’m all about records and chaos - I certainly don’t want 20-30 days of below zero mornings in the winter any more than I want 20-30 days in the summer to get into the 90s. If, come July, the models are showing us hitting 104 (once and only once, preferably with relatively lower humidity - think 2012 in the midwest - and a quick return to the 80s afterward - okay, that’s too many caveats), I’ll be all for it. But there’s a difference to me between setting all time records or near-records and having days and days of hot or cold misery (though, subjectively, hot is way more miserable than cold to me). I know some of us have talked about weather enthusiasts vs. non-weather enthusiasts a good bit on here, and all it takes is one look at NWS Pittsburgh’s Facebook or, to a slightly lesser extent, Twitter, to see all kinds of people who don’t appear to be weather enthusiasts saying things like “give me 90s with humidity” and I’m genuinely curious as to what makes those types of conditions enjoyable to some, because it seems absolutely miserable to me (as would be 100 or -15, but I’d take those for the weather chaos factor as delineated above).

48 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Hopefully a lot of 90 degree days in the summer.

I surely hope not, I’ve truly never understood the appeal of 90 degree days. Perhaps a warm weather person could explain, lol. What could be more enjoyable about 90 than, say, low 80s? What activities can one do that are significantly enhanced when the temperature is 90 as opposed to 83? Honest question, not knocking anyone’s preferences.

It’s back yet again. We know this pattern persists for months on end once it sets up, so it’s going to be another brutally hot summer like last year. Why can’t we ever catch a break in this ridiculous, very-likely-climate-change-influenced pattern?

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A chilly 29 to start off the work week.

It's that time of year - opening up the site this morning and seeing that the last posts in subs happened up to 10 hours ago tells you everything you need to know without going any further.

Come on now, these days that are 67 and sunny just drive my passion for weather. I can’t be the only one.

15 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Surprised there's no fire weather warnings up today.  Dew point is in the low teens.  I guess that 2" of rain helped supress that risk, but wow that dew point is low.  Wish it was like that in the summer.

I’d settle for dew points in the 40s or even low 50s most days of summer. Then again, I lived in the desert for a few years and I swear I could feel a difference when the dew point started to hit 40 in summer.

Speaking of dews, most models shoot them into the mid-upper 50s later this week. Perhaps we can get favorable timing of the late week cold front to get a strong storm or two?

1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Exactly dude OSU cannot close games at all and it bit them today. Illinois is experienced it may be their year, my wolverines were looking good until Livers injury...now I’m feeling sweet 16 exit. Good hire by psu btw, he knows his stuff.

Agreed on the PSU hire. I’m a Wisconsin guy myself though PSU runs in my family’s blood as it does for a lot of Pennsylvanians. Glad Wisconsin finally put together a complete game and scored 85 and dismantled UNC in a game that was never really contested. Those kids have been together four years and finally got to experience the joy of winning a tournament game. They’ll get dismantled by Baylor on Sunday but I’m on cloud nine.

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I haven’t had the chance to look at the long term weather models the last couple of days?

Any chance of one last winter storm to track?

The trusty GFS cold bias still rolls a couple of storms with snow in the cold sector through the northeast bookending next weekend.

On 3/11/2021 at 2:14 PM, TimB84 said:

Not every year the Big Ten has four legitimate national title contenders.

Edit: Three. Didn’t realize Ohio State went into a tailspin down the stretch, though that pleases me.

This aged well, though I’ll admit I questioned it after the Big Ten tourney.

A comprehensive list of all the Pittsburgh years that had less than 0.7” of snow from Feb. 23 until the last measurable snow of spring:

1. 1903* (0.1”)

2. 2021** (0.1”) 
*observations were not taken at KPIT, would likely have been more than 0.1” if the airport existed at the time

**still ongoing, though increasingly likely we’re done

Interestingly, the official total of 2.19” at KPIT yesterday appears to be the highest total in PA reported by the NWS. If only we could get that bullseye during a snowstorm. (Not necessarily saying 2.19”, obviously that would be historic at 10:1 and an all time record at 12:1).

Looks like 1.85” of rain so far at KPIT. 2nd wettest March day on record. Won’t catch 3/6/45 with 2.58”. (Edited 7pm)

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Probably none of us are on here stemming from a fascination of the day when we were younger and it was sunny and 67.   

It depends on whether that day was in April/October or in July. As a cold fan, a sunny and 67 July day in PA for me would be wonderful.

11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

And yet I root for all of it.  Guilty as charged.  I can't help myself.  I want maximum chaos when it comes to weather.  I want to see extreme events and records broken.  Heck, it's the reason I'm a weather enthusiast and on this very forum.  But you are so right that lives are lost in all extreme weather and that reality does have to fit in somewhere.  A tricky balance.  

Someone in my home thread put it in this perspective for me: weather will happen and lives will be lost whether we root for it or not.

Tornadoes and blizzards are much more fascinating than 70 and sunny. I can’t imagine there are many weather enthusiasts in San Diego.

21 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

severe is how i started following weather. Being in the fire dept, kinda goes hand in hand. I cringe when i hear someone say they hope we get this or that. They obviously never personally experienced  a tragic event. They would never wish for it again. I've had the not so much pleasure of seeing to much death  and destruction. I'm not a fan, I don't need to see anymore really.  

At the root of it, and to play devil’s advocate, is there really any difference between hoping for a tornado or hurricane vs. hoping for a blizzard/historic cold/record heat wave/etc.? Lives are lost in all of the above. I would argue that all events where someone dies are tragic. Some (not necessarily me, unless we’re talking about massive devastation where people lose everything and not just something like burst pipes or a flooded basement or needing a new roof) might even argue that all events where anyone’s property is damaged, even if no one is hurt or killed, are tragic.