TimB

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Also, age old theme to gripe about here, but why would NWS not put out some type of advisory, whether WWA or Storm Watch.  They're calling for 6-8" right now, but the possibility isn't a lot of snow or little snow, it's a lot of snow, or snow and ice.  Either one should get an advisory.  I'm sure we'll have one but it'll probably go up tomorrow afternoon, smh.

I have my theories here, the biggest one being that it seems they’ve gotten a lot more conservative with issuing winter storm watches since the bust of January 2019. I don’t know if getting raked over the coals on social media made them skittish or what.

On another note, that late week storm deepens impressively on the GFS as it moves northward, but the track continues to shift west (through Indiana now) and I don’t think this is a snow event for us. That said, it’s depicting significant ice before the warm air reaches the surface.

(But it’s back onto the idea of a significant pattern flip toward the end of the month. 64, anybody?)

Not liking the GFS-Para’s track at all.

15 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

0z Euro looked really good for Thursday, all snow.

And the 6z Euro looked great for Monday-Tuesday.  We’re just north of the ice line.  Improvement there.

0z Euro doesn’t bring us a lot of snow for Thursday but I’ll take even the 4” or so that it gives us over the GFS’s rain and 40+. Mon/Tues looks like a Youngstown special but again, 4-8” would be fine.

Just now, Rd9108 said:

We are definitely walking a tight rope with this whole set up. We need the euro to tick back east so we can have some breathing room. 

Agreed. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t complain about 13.4 when it could have been 17.3, but too close for comfort.

Just now, Mailman said:

Seems it’s trended the first wave stronger and the second weaker.

GFS seems to be onto the Euro’s idea of two rounds of snow, one earlier Monday and then a larger one Monday night/Tuesday morning. Hopefully it has the right idea with the strength of the second round!

Looking ahead, the late week storm still seems to be trending east. Still mostly ice/rain on the GFS, but it’s coming into line with a more favorable path for us.

15 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/relentless-wintry-weather-to-bombard-much-of-us-into-next-week/898575

Looks like Accuweather is leaning toward more snow.

TWC appears to have lowered amounts for the first system but raised them for the second system, and is predicting all snow in the North Hills for both (12-24 total from both storms). Still lots of time to change.

NWS afternoon forecast discussion still not biting on a significant snow event Mon/Tues.

Euro looks a little better, 6” and some zr.

And 4” of all snow on the late week system.

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Over in the Central forum they are talking about riding the line.  I imagine that has to help us to some degree, and not in every case, but if we get a low tracking east of us we're in a better spot.  If it is an west to east track, then we have more things to worry about.  All of this is fwiw.

The GFS still looks beautiful, massive snowfall rates and dropping 8+ inches on us overnight Monday night.

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

If we get two back to back that big it could be 75 the rest of winter.

If we get two back to back that big, we’ll be within striking distance of the record and will have no choice but to root for it. (But the GFS does seem to be hinting at a pattern shift toward the end of its run, but way too early to think about that.)

Just now, Ahoff said:

Beautiful look on the NAM of course...hr. 84.

Rooting for the Weather Channel to win out they have Monday with 6-11" of snow.  Mostly overnight, and an additional inch on Tuesday.

Interestingly, TWC is liking the later week storm for 6-12” over a 36+ hour period.

5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Only after it flirted with the idea too, it had a couple -17 and -18 degree runs as well, lol.

True. It was the most recent model to predict that magnitude of cold. On that note, both models put us close to 0 after the Mon/Tues storm and the Euro puts us close to 0 after the Thurs/Fri storm. Para brings subzero cold Wed. AM.

10 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, I wish I kept better track of how each model performed.  Some people it seems know what every model did every day leading up to every storm in a season and previous seasons, lol.  So, I'm not sure what model is superior this year.  Hopefully, this is a wacky run.

I can’t say I know what model has been superior, they’ve all struggled to get a handle on how this pattern will play out for really the entire month of February so far. I just remember there being a 50 degree swing from one run to the next on the Euro, going from a historic cold snap to temperatures well above freezing. But that was the first run that it picked up the 2/9 system, not several days after it had been painting the exact same picture as the GFS for a number of runs.

The Euro did beat the GFS significantly in recognizing that the brutal cold would not reach our area and we would instead lie in that active storm track most of the month.

And the GFS did try to give us that monster storm this coming Sunday for a run or two that no other model really bit on.

7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Some major things I'm seeing in Euro and GFS, I looked at both from the 0z run, since that is the common time I could find.

At hr. 96 the Euro has the L on the MS/AL line at the Gulf Coast.  I would think with a low in that spot the storm wouldn't cut as much, but not what is depicted.  GFS is just north of Atlanta.

At hr 102 the Euro is actually very close to the GFS at hr. 96, it's just throwing more warmth to our area.  GFS at the 102 has moved into Central NC.

Hr. 108 is the major divergent point, Euro rams the low just west of Wheeling.  GFS is off the Jersey Shore.  Quite a few Hundred miles.

The highs on the models look actually similar in placement.  Euro is stronger, so not really sure why it would cut if the GFS doesn't.  Maybe because High is too far east?

Current GFS-Para run (0z) is hybrid of GFS and Euro. drives low to central WV, then transfers to Chesapeake Bay.  CMC stays south of us, and all snow, goes from S. WV to off the Jersey Shore and then Cape Cod at hr. 108.  Icon is all snow, well of Jersey Shore.  NavGem is well off the coast

Consistency, at 108 on th 0z for today Euro as stated is west of Wheeling with the L.  12z yesterday it had the L just south of Charlotte for the same timestamp, with the prior shiot looking similare to today.  0z yesterday had the L near GA/SC border.  12z on 2/10 had the low in Atlanta.  So, the Euro was fairly consistent until this run.  Hopefully that's a one off and if corrects to where it was, if it's a trend it was a massive correction.

Consistency for the GFS: 0z today, L in central NC.  12z yesterday the L was in Charlotte.  0z yesterday, L near Raleigh.  12z on 2/10, L was in south central Ohio.  GFS has stayed consistently south the last few runs, but was Euro-esque before.  They seemingly flipped.  Does this mean GFS had the right idea and is getting lost, or the Euro went crazy for a run or two?  We'll see kind of interesting.

 

 

The Euro did do this with our 2/9 storm 5 or 6 days before, suggesting the system would track way west and pump our temps up close to 50. That didn’t verify.

12 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I don't like the Euro.  It makes me nervous that it is the one showing ice and rain mostly, still time though.  GFS looks great.

But would the High to the north allow the low to cut like that?  We'll see I guess.

But that’s the scary part. These models are ~4 days from the onset of precip and depicting completely different scenarios. Not just a little bit different, but completely out of phase with each other.

1 hour ago, Ecanem said:

In what way? Sure the overalL totals are a little lower but I never really thought we would get 12”

edit: for the gfs that is. I just loaded the euro and it’s wet on tuesday. 

Euro is wet on Tuesday, GFS is wet on Thursday/Friday. What are the chances we get more rain than snow?

41 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Has to do with the data collection around the country. If you look at the observational soundings (balloon launches), most CWAs launch at 00z and 12z. This data is fed directly into the models runs at those times. Very few CWAs have launches at the 6z and 18z times. Only a few and in special circumstances will launch then.

 

So there is validity to the “0z and 12z are better” argument?

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

I believe that has to do with the idea that the 6z and 18z does not get any new info fed into the operation models. I know that was the case years ago I'm not sure its the same now. 

So it’s probably just as valid. I only ask because I liked the 12z’s model of both storms next week better than the 6z and 18z. 

So honest question: why do people view the 6z and 18z GFS as less valid than the 0z and 12z?

Just now, Mailman said:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The southwest flow ovr the Upr OH is forecast to continue next week
with shortwaves within flow defining precip chc, the most 
significant indicated for Tuesday. Current depictions are for the mid
level low to dig toward the Great Lakes, thus limiting snow and 
overall precip potential via warm advection and dry slotting. Still, 
mixed precipitation including freezing rain is expected with such a 
scenario, development which will have to be monitored.

Ah, so the NWS doesn’t like this pattern for snowfall. 

12 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Ah, makes sense.  Hopefully, it is over done.

Sounds pretty good for the Euro though, I'd take it.

Also, looks like the next system the Euro has after Tuesday (Thurs.-Fri.) has come east and south from the previous run.  Better for us, but the ice it depicts is crazy throughout the state.

GFS gives it a similar track, though slightly earlier and with slightly higher temps.

Just now, Ahoff said:

I know it can happen, but I'd bet it's fairly rare.  I'm with you on believing if it is that cold with precip it will likely be snow.  It just seems hard to believe to me that that much warmth up above wouldn't mix down at least somewhat to the surface.

If I were a betting man, I’d say the 2m temperature will not drop below 20 during this event, but that’s an entirely different topic.

Euro seems to be on about 8” of mostly snow, with about 6” in 6 hours between 6z and 12z Tues. Though it’s also mixing p-types with temps in the teens. I’ll bet my entire bank account that not one drop of rain or sleet will fall with an air temperature below 20.

8 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah another jump SE, I still think a miss in that direction is more of a threat than rain from this one, but still 5 days out so alot yet to be resolved. Don't forget just a few days ago the Saturday / Sunday storm was cutting west too.

The later week storm seems to be trending west and could destroy our snowpack no matter how much snow we get from the earlier system, especially if the Euro verifies.