TimB

26 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

But if we get a top 10 or top 15 winter every winter, then we make the totals almost impossible to actually achieve at some point.  There's around 140 years of weather history in Pittsburgh, if we get a top 20 or top 30 snowy winter that's pretty damn good.  Do we all want top 10 years, absolutely, but we have to celebrate small victories.

Small victories are great, but I still feel like we need a massive victory to make up for our massive defeat last winter. In fairness, I think I worked out that the 1991-2020 snowfall averages at PIT are still going to be an inch or two higher than the 1981-2010 averages.

4 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Am I the only one not disappointed in this winter??? We had a storm over 10 inches that all fell during daylight with some good rates. We had a solid White Christmas. We had multiple 6+ storms. December finally wasn't a dud like usual. Ill take front loaded winters over backloaded any day. We didn't quite get the big daddy storm or arctic air but all in all if winter ends today I'm giving it an A- 

I can’t dispute that it was a good winter. But in thinking about other good winters in Pittsburgh’s history, it’s a garden-variety good winter, a once every 5-7 years type of deal. If we get less than an inch of additional snow the rest of the way (which I’d say is at least a 50/50 bet), it puts us just outside the top 20 all time. I’m not saying we need record-breaking snow and cold, but a top 10 or top 15 winter of all time is what I would describe as “phenomenal.” I guess it depends on how you view other factors, like number of significant snowstorms, what one personally defines to be a “significant snowstorm”, length of time with a snowpack, white Christmas, how early or late the winter went, etc. If these factors are even more important than the actual final total, I can see how this would be a “phenomenal” winter. So it’s not disappointing in that sense, it’s more that it had the potential to be even more special if the back end hadn’t been so crappy.

33 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

It was late March and 10".  Regardless of duration it was impressive.  Possibly the lastest 10" storm on record, so record setting for you.

March '18 had 12.3" (with that storm), '17 had 9.7", '15 had 9", '13 had 15.2", your record warm 2012 had 6" of snow.  So, in the last decade we had 4 Marchs with above average snow, a few that are just a few inches below average, and even less with almost no snow.  So, Winter does not just abruptly end every year, in fact it feels as if it frequently drags into March more often than not.  You need to stop expecting record events in every month and every season.

Indeed, that is the latest in the KPIT era. There are a couple April days in the very early 1900s that recorded 11+ inches. I guess we did break a few daily snowfall records this winter, when a moderate accumulation happened to line up with a date that had a low-hanging fruit kind of record (I’m thinking Christmas in particular).

And I guess we can’t join March of 1903, 1927, and 1946 in infamy as the only ones without measurable snow, since KPIT managed to pick up 0.1” yesterday.

59 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Sir we literally had like a 10 inch snow storm three years ago at the end of March. 

My memory seems to be telling me that was one of those long-duration events that melted almost as it fell, was an advisory rather than a warning, and was little more than a number in the record books. I seem to recall driving the turnpike and being able to safely go 70 the whole way. I could be wrong.

9 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

There’s a reason winters like that are memorable; they are rare. Your not going to have record breaking seasons every year and if that’s your bar you’ll be disappointed frequently.

It was a great winter, March looking warmer but not all that unexpected once the SSW effects fade. Still will probably have some shots at snow. Some data indicates blocking is favored following a predominantly -AO / NAO winter so something positive to see if that pans out next season. 
 

Seems weird not having to check the models daily but whatever happens with regards to snow hopefully we will have some thunderstorms to track soon.

I do agree that this winter has checked most of the boxes. But I’m tired of winter coming to an abrupt end before February is over, as it nearly always seems to in recent years. Is it too much to ask for 2-3” of snow in a month (March) that averages 7.4”? I’m not even asking for half of the average, haha.

Disclaimer: Not from or currently living in this region, but lived in WI for several years including the record snow winter of 2007-08 in Madison (which was awesome! Sign me up for a winter like that in Pittsburgh!).

That said, I also find this hobby stressful and emotionally draining, and anxiety inducing, so I understand the grousing over the lack of a true winter, which is unfortunately becoming more and more common in areas on the fringe of the true northern US like Chicago, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Indy, even Detroit, etc. in recent years. We do need everything to go right to get a good snowstorm or polar vortex in these parts. This was largely a good winter here too (a foot above normal snowfall, the whitest Christmas ever recorded here, close to normal temps, almost a month of snow cover which is rare here, our second longest stretch to start a year without hitting 50 degrees - we finally did on 2/24). The models often had us getting a nice cold snap in February, much like the Midwest did. The models lied. February’s average here was 3.5 degrees below normal, but we didn’t have the subzero cold I was hoping for. I know our normal high on 2/28 is 42 but I wasn’t ready for winter to end just yet - March here averages 7” of snow and typically has some cold stretches. An abrupt end to winter on 2/24 was not what I had in mind, and a March that likely will feature below average snowfall here, if we see anything more than a trace at all). We suffered through a 76 degree day in mid-November and still had to deal with a flip to spring before the calendar even flipped to March. I miss when March was marginally a winter month. I miss when November was marginally a winter month. I’m sure Chicagoans do too. Don’t judge snow and cold lovers for getting upset at how short winters are these days. Some of us do get quite grouchy when the seasons aren’t the way we like them, even though we know at the heart of it there’s really nothing we can do about it, outside of moving to a colder climate (which due to the pandemic has never been easier than it is now for any of us that have a job that can be done from anywhere, like myself. Almost considering moving back to the Upper Midwest for the weather alone).

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

So MDT has a legit chance to break 3 low records temps this week based on a blend of the GFS, Euro and CMC.  March 5th, March 7th and March 8th (with the CMC temp on the 8th being the coldest temp ever recorded at MDT in March.

From a PIT person, the GFS and Euro spent a lot of time teasing us with temps in the double digits below zero range on various days for the second and third week of February, sometimes as low as -19, usually about a week out, and were often in agreement on such barely-precedented cold. The lowest temperature we recorded in February was +2, and on many of those days our lows were closer to 20.

50 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, since that map doesn't give any clues to magnitude, I'm not remotely entertaining 2012 level warmth.

CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for that event both had massive areas of 80 and 90 percent probabilities of above normal most days, so that’s a good reason not to even consider it.

27 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Well yeah, since March 2012 was 12 above average, I’d say it’s unlikely we challenge it, lol.  5 above isn’t even close, ha!

After reminding myself how ridiculous that March was, I’m going to bet against an 11 day stretch with highs of 72, 75, 74, 70, 77, 72, 75, 80, 77, 81, and 81 happening this March, so I don’t see 12 above average happening.

That said...   

2012:

2021:

Same pattern, but I’m just going to take a wild guess that it’s not going to be the same magnitude.

29 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Doubt we get to either of those two extremes.  You literally picked the most extreme Marchs to compare this one to.  i'd relax expectations if I were you.

I think this cold-ish (i.e., seasonable for early March) start to the month prevents us from seriously challenging 2012. But I’m going with 5+ degrees above normal and less than 3” of snow for the month.

15 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

^Chill.  It was a good ride, and they don't last for months on end.  We got three solid months of winter that actually spanned the winter months.  I'm grateful.

In retrospect, I guess I was hoping for a winter that I’d remember for years to come (like ‘93-‘94), not a winter that I’d forget about in three years (like ‘17-‘18). Those two and this year were all above average snowfall seasons, but one of them will be memorable and two of them won’t.

There’s a nonzero chance March will be memorable, but in a 2012 way rather than a 1993 way.

It looks like that’s a wrap. The post-Valentine’s day portion of winter featured not one but two snowstorm busts, a massive warm-up that eliminated a large snowpack in two days, a torrential rainstorm with a brief period of almost summer like humidity, an upcoming seasonably but not anomalously cold stretch without precip, a likely warm spell to follow, and yet another March with likely little to no snow. We’re back to normal!

1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

RIP Bob Kudzma

Fun fact is that he drove a bus for 18 years after he retired on the air. Just something he said was his dream as a kid. Seems like he was a good guy.

Growing up he was like the NAM with the juiced up totals, and Denardo as like the Euro (except this yr) telling us not so fast. He used to say that he forcasted to prepare people. 

Throw Bowman in there and it was quite a nice local met dynamic. Definitely appointment TV to get their forcasts after tracking a storm on TWC 5 day business planner. 

I hadn’t heard, but seconded. RIP. Kudzma, Bowman and Denardo was unquestionably the golden age of Pittsburgh broadcast meteorology. Obviously with the advent of the internet and such we have so many other means of getting a weather forecast, so such a golden age will sadly never return.

Euro completely schooled the GFS and other models on the magnitude of the warmth we had just 48 hours ago.

Euro consistently for the past several runs shows this pattern, which is vastly different from the GFS but the GFS-Para and Canadian have now picked up as well:

NWS puts all their eggs in the GFS basket (TWC seems to as well, based on their temperature forecast):

Not sure what all this means, but it would seem winter isn’t over and a well-timed/placed storm could give us some snow. It’s no secret that I trust the Euro over the GFS 80-90% of the time, and I double down on that trust in the Euro when it has the hot hand due to recent success.

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Early summer last year was pretty low dew point.  About half way through the early July heat wave is when the dew points rose.

Despite being hell on earth temperature-wise, it was nice to be a little drier last summer. And yet, we only had a little over 4 months between our first and last 80 degree days. Still, I was ready to pack up and move to Alaska if we didn’t get a real winter this year.

6 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Come May I’m ready for heat.

The May/early June heat isn’t too bad since it doesn’t always come with humidity. I’ve never understood the draw to any temperature above 80 unless the dew point is below 60, and we know our summer dew points are in the comfortable 50s for probably about 3 days from mid June to end of August.

3 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Officially dropped to 2 this morning.

That I can live with. We have almost certainly secured our first month with below normal temperature since last May, we got weeks and weeks of snow cover, and we finally recorded a temperature colder than last winter’s minimum. If this is it for winter (I hope we still get another storm, but it’s going to be a tall order with a warm pattern being signaled), we’ve had a very good one. Now if only we can get a spring that fades slowly into summer so the wife doesn’t have to hear me beg to turn on the central air in May, I’ll be even happier.

36 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

NWS is not too enthusiastic about tonight's snow.

I think if everything goes right our ceiling is probably about 1.5” or so. But of course it doesn’t always go right. I think we could pick up an inch as our last addition to the snowpack before the first short-lived taste of spring arrives midweek. I like the GFS’s thinking on the pattern after that, but that may be the cold bias again.

7 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Yes, but it’s again not impossible clearly.  I just feel the incredible averageness of this year is more notable than anything.

It very much is. In any event, KPIT is sitting at 3 at this moment, which ends the streak of not dropping below 5.

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

You are really hung up on these extreme temperatures.  This has been an exceptionally un-extreme temperature winter in both directions.  
 

Just 1 day has reached the 60s from December-today.  Likely we won’t reach 60 before February ends.  There are only 8 seasons where Dec.-Feb. did not reach 60 at all (1878-1879, 1925-1926, 1935-1936, 1963-1964, 1969-1970, 1981-1982, 1986-1987 and 2009-2010).  That kind of shows how anomalous only one 60 degree days is in those three months (and it was a low 60s day).

You are very stuck on the lack of extreme cold, which itself is odd, but you are missing the lack of extreme warmth also.  It is just a weirdly average winter temperature season.

I agree that the lack of warmth is also anomalous, and having only 8 other such seasons proves that (but also proves it has occurred before). Days with highs in the teens and nights with lows of 5 or below occur in as many winters as highs in the 60s do, and it is not only anomalous, but in fact unprecedented to go two consecutive winters without those occurring (though I think it’s at least in the realm of possibility for KPIT to drop to 5 tonight). I don’t think it’s odd to notice something that has occurred as many times in Pittsburgh’s history as a high of 104 or a low of -23.

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

It's really been a solid deep winter feel this month so far. No matter what happens going forward this goes in my book as a great winter. Started December 1st, big storm mid December, White Christmas, No real torch periods through January, then February with the prolonged stretch of snow cover and cold days. Multiple 4-5in snow events sprinkled through the season with multiple days of at least some snow in the air and we will finish at least a foot over average. Can't draw one up much better than that and still a shot possible for some March magic. 

 

It really has been a fantastic winter when you take a step back and think about it. Especially when you compare it to the past couple. It’s been a long time since we had weeks of snow cover like this. Yeah, with the temperature having reached 21 so far today, we’re going to shatter our record for consecutive days with highs above 20 (it’s never happened in consecutive winters) barring an anomalous cold snap after we flip to March, but this winter has looked and felt like winter for the vast majority of the season.

The Pittsburgh NWS must have heard us complaining about their forecast discussions, the ones yesterday afternoon and this morning seem to be up to standard.

The streak likely ends tomorrow, but today will officially be the 17th straight day with at least a trace of snowfall at the airport.

51 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Man, I know these last two events were irritating, but looking at the tragedy in Texas puts things in perspective. 

Completely agree. Of course we’d like to think it wouldn’t happen here, and maybe it wouldn’t, because we have better infrastructure, are better prepared for it, and live in a cold climate so we’re used to crippling snowstorms and severe cold, but then again of course it could. What they got was their equivalent of the Blizzard of ‘93 and the cold snap of January 1994 all at the same time.

6 hours ago, Ahoff said:

It hasn't hit 40 degrees in 23 days, and it will extend to at least 26 days.  I wonder what the record is for staying below 40 consecutively?

Record for below freezing is 33 days, if that gives you an idea.

Today is the 36th day in a row with a low below freezing. I’m sure there have been much longer periods than that, but it’s probably uncommon.

And at this point, it looks like we won’t hit 50 until at least Wednesday. That would at least tie us for the second longest such streak to start a year in the KPIT era. And apparently, according to the chart below, 1978 is the only year in recorded history that we made it beyond 2/24 without hitting 50 degrees.

Isn’t there somewhere you can run neat little charts for things like that?

Found it. Record is 51 days without reaching 40. We would be tied for 13th if we get to 26.

As expected, 1977, 1978, and 1979 are all over these lists, haha.

Edit: almost forgot one. We are now in first place for consecutive days not dropping below 8 degrees. Sunday morning is probably our last shot at not adding 300+ days to that total.