TimB

Is it a sign of anything that I just saw a Canada goose flying northward?

2 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Euro showing some life in the long range. 

Heartbreak as depicted, but I think that’s too early to really be our window anyway.

1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Who is this east nantmeal clown show? We need more sauss and less sepa posters.

You talking about that fugitive they caught last fall, the 2nd worst person ever to set foot in East Nantmeal?

3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I don't know, did you have a figure in mind? I am certainly willing to put my money where my mouth is but I wasn't sure of an amount. 

Double Whopper combo meal?

Even if every day the rest of February gets below freezing (almost impossible with next week’s warmup), we’d still be in first place.

This is actually pretty wild (KPIT era, 1952-present):

@TheClimateChangerany January stats to share?

Let’s hope this pattern change actually happens and produces for us. I’m not sure I can bear the endless heat and humidity from April through October after another snowless winter.

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

lol. We have a poster in our thread that goes crazy every time we top out at 89

Especially when Syracuse gets to 95 consistently, lol.

1 minute ago, Atomixwx said:

 

 

To be fair, I pushed back on ChescoWx until it became clear the tribe was okay with his reporting.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

 

Not sure if you were here for the delusional “it never got to 90 imby” act last summer or if you’re strictly a winter poster.

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

But the posters in question have a big difference - the poster sharing DuBois stats does not live in DuBois, at least to my knowledge. Chescowx is posting info from HIS station. 

And I know this sounds sorta ticky tacky, but there are a crap ton of Lancaster County posters. All of us live within 45 minutes of Chesco, and many are much closer than that. Other than Atomix and our Clearfield friend, no regular poster in our thread lives anywhere remotely close to DuBois. 

It's really not an even comparison. 

Also - I welcomed CC to post anything he damn well wants as long as it's evened out. He is ONLY posting to fit his agenda. Nothing else. At least not in our thread. 

It’s hard to tell. The sample size of his posting is limited to September 2021 on, so he hasn’t been on this forum during a prolifically cold or snowy winter, or during any extended cold period in any season (i.e. February 2015, May 2020, etc.). But I suppose the username itself would be enough to indicate what he wants to post about.

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Tim, to clarify.  The poster who earlier today was worried about weather on the 7th planet from the sun, pushes back on East Nantmeal all the time. 

Can’t read stuff about the climate of that planet without snickering. Get to a paragraph like this and it’s over:

The reason why Uranus is so cold is nothing to do with its distance from the Sun. Billions of years ago, something big crashed into Uranus with so much force that it tipped the planet over onto its side. Uranus still rolls around the Sun on its side today. The impact of the crash also let some of the heat that was trapped inside Uranus escape.

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Tim, to clarify.  The poster who earlier today was worried about weather on the 7th planet from the sun, pushes back on East Nantmeal all the time. 

Shit, you’re right.

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Only if you promise to never post climo data. Lol

Draw the line for us here: what is weather and what is climate?

1. This winter has had an average temperature of X degrees at MDT. Unquestionably weather.

2. This winter has been the warmest winter since 19XX at MDT. I still say weather, but bordering on climate.

3. Winters in the 2020s at MDT have had X% less snow than winters in the 1970s. Probably climate.

Granted, all 3 of these types of posts appear in this thread from time to time, and sometimes stats from DuBois, which is about as relevant as East Nantmeal Township (though the latter never gets any pushback, curiously), but some of the posts in question are genuinely about weather and not climate.

NWS is so goddamn lazy in their forecast discussions. The long term still mentions the Midwest omega block and northeast trough that are long gone. Well, I guess the omega block is over us but the troughing is offshore.

11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

If we are done being miserable all ensembles now agree on the pattern changing around Feb 14 fwiw. Still early enough to get excited but the signal is there FOR NOW.

Hard to be miserable when it’s going to be 53 and sunny this weekend. Hope you get to golf.

I can actually get behind the idea of the weekend being warm and sunny and downright springlike, but it really is incredible how fast the models flipped it from cold to warm at fairly close range.

8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If you're going to post this at least do the research and pull snow/rain ratios for the years and give some statistical basis for your claims along with maybe a further breakdown to quantify it.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

I was talking specifically about the three Januaries he mentioned, two of which were very snowy and the other wasn’t snowy, but part of another historic winter.

The three Januaries ahead of this one in precip totals in his area were all part of epic winters, and this one won’t be. To deny that is to obfuscate.

6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Snow was the more predominant p-type this December/January with 10.9" of snow compared to December 1978/January 1979 when only 8.7" of the precip was snow.

Of course 1996 was one of our snowiest winters with 47" of snow during December 1995/January 1996 and 27.7" during December 1977/Jan 78

My (correct) point is, nowadays when a winter month has a lot of precip, it’s almost a sure bet that most of it is rain. But two out of the three past winters you mentioned had wet months that were mostly snow. So in the past, an anomalously wet winter month could be rainy or snowy.

And snow has not been the predominant p-type this winter, lol.

Also, we were talking about January, why bring in December? Try to keep up.

I don’t pay for pivotal so I can’t see the EPS snow map, but the mean snow depth peaks at 0.2”. That’s absolutely insane for the first half of February.

And the ensemble mean is just as bad. Less than an inch over 16 days.

1 minute ago, dj3 said:

Anecdotal I'm sure but these last 2 winters seem so bad from a tracking perspective. I can't seem to recall ones this bad where its literally weeks at a time with nothing remotely trackable. Maybe going back to what KPIT mentioned as far as the slop storms being less numerous has some merit into the trackability aspect. I can recall years back where we would be tracking and eventually go from a few runs jacking us to a few messy inches. At least we were tracking for several days in those cases though. This is just brutal. 

To your point, here’s today’s 12z GFS snow map for the entire run east of the Rockies. Can it be any more brutal for the heart of winter?

17 minutes ago, jwilson said:

I'm repeating myself a bit here, but my expectations for this winter were set at 30" based on historical analogs.  That was basically the ceiling for Pittsburgh during +2.0 Nino events (we peaked at +1.9, I think, but that's hair-splitting).  It's a below average winter for us, by far, but since my expectations were relatively low, I'm not too surprised by how things have gone.  My only inkling was that maybe we'd hit a big storm this year - and that would essentially be the source of most of our season's snowfall.  I'm generally fine with such an outcome.

The eight years it has been since a 20" storm is the longest I've gone in my life not seeing something of that magnitude.

It's obvious by now that this wasn't going to be a wall-to-wall winter with infinite opportunities.  I guess chances might favor we get a repeat of January with a 14-day threat window where cold and precipitation align.  Like you, I don't necessarily care as much once we get into March, but March is quite capable of producing big winter events.  Just two years ago Pittsburgh got >17" in March, but someone will have to fill in the blanks for me because I don't remember how that happened (2022 was a weird year for me).  Pittsburgh's biggest storm ever was in March, of course, but I guess since that was such a fluke thing it's mostly irrelevant.  Only point being that even if we end up moving the window later in February or back into March, there's still chances to be had.  Our window is open a bit longer than places south and east.

March 2022 had that storm that dropped like 9” overnight on a weekend and it was well into the 60s by midweek, then I think a smaller event very late in the month, followed by a 36 hour period where we went from a low of 14 one morning to a high of 76 the next day. It was one of those rare Marches where we got lots of snow despite it being decisively above normal temperature-wise on the whole.

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Would be crazy if we had two straight sub-20" winters at the airport. That was one of the few redeeming qualities of the Pittsburgh climate noted during the March 2018 storm. I was looking at that thread a couple weeks ago, trying to find some of our most recent, bigger storms. On the plus side, one frequent complaint in that thread was the I-95 corridor getting clobbered all the time, and that activity seems to have died down in recent years.

Yeah, now no one east of the Rockies is winning (except maybe outliers like Buffalo and Minneapolis last winter), but that’s almost worse because it gives little signs of hope.