TimB

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

He’s popping the champagne to celebrate his forecast. Interesting way to verify a forecast. Instead of using the climatological normal of 11.7 inches, use the significantly lower moving 10- and 20-year averages. Also the 10-year average is 8.8 inches, not 8.1. And the 20 year average doesn’t actually include 20 years as there were no snow observations for much of the 2000s at AVP.

And just ignore temperatures altogether. They don’t matter. And forget the entire month of December. Just toss that into the trash.

 

I appreciate what you’re trying to point out here, but data from actual official climate sites is significantly less valuable than data from a poorly sited weather station in the backyard of a Chester County home.

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

Take this shit out of this thread before I report every one of your posts. You ruined this thread last month and ran off some great regulars, it won't happen again. Get on with ya. 

I’m out. Hope @ChescoWxcan get out and enjoy the warmth and an early taste of spring without having to pretend it’s cold.

1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

Certainly not warm with staying power for February

Above normal temperatures = warm

Sustained for two weeks = with staying power

Hope this helps.

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

How did we manage to do it at the same time? 

Easy. I used the TimB account in Safari and the climate changer account in Chrome.

Just now, TimB said:

Temps averaging 45/30 and basically staying there for two weeks is still an extended period of above normal temps.

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Highs in the mid 40s, with lows barely below freezing, are cold for early February in Chester County? 

God damnit, I didn’t mean to post this on both of my accounts.

1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

Not much "staying power" to this very brief warm up to my eyes....

Temps averaging 45/30 and basically staying there for two weeks is still an extended period of above normal temps.

Where is iOS getting its data that it has the ridiculous idea that it’s currently 45 on the way to a high of 51? The airports are currently at 56 and nearly every PWS in the county on wunderground is in the mid 50s.

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

To date, it has been the 11th warmest winter in the threaded record. 2nd warmest observed at KPIT, slightly behind 2007. Will be interesting to see where we stand with this big warmup.

2007 drops down that list pretty quickly from here on out. After 1/24, there were only 6 above normal days and February was more than 10 degrees below normal, with a massive cold snap early in the month.

If winter ended today, it’d be the warmest at KPIT, breaking the record set (checks notes) last year.

2 hours ago, PghPirates27 said:

Still warming! Wish we could be 16 above average in July! I'm a man of the extremes.

+16 would be a high of 99 and a low of 80 at peak summer climo.

The record for fewest days through the end of January with a low at or below freezing at Pittsburgh International is 50, in 2015-16. We’re at 41 right now, so we’ll obliterate that record.

Fewest for an entire season is 89. That would seem to be in jeopardy.

If we go by calendar years and not seasons, 2023 was the clear winner in this category and it’s not even close (86 vs. a previous low of 93).

10 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I think i saw 52.0° AT 2:51 at KPIT. 16° above the average

Still could get above that before midnight.

Temps have surged into the mid-40s with some sunshine breaking through. This has over-performer written all over it.

Also, glad we missed out on the freezing rain, but is there a reason the advisory is still going? We’ve been above freezing the whole time, haven’t dropped below freezing, and won’t drop below freezing.

16 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

I also think the fact two of those 8-12 events were in March makes us misremember them since it melts fast. That 2018 match event was prolonged and I’m not sure the roads ever even caved. 

I used to drive a 28 mile stretch of the turnpike every day at that time and my recollection of this event is that there were absolutely zero commuting issues.

Alright, give me some hope here. I need a recent year where spring arrived in early February but we flipped back to winter afterward. I feel like in recent years, once we flip to spring we either stay there or the cold comes back in late March or April after it’s far too late.

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This 18z GFS run has another Winter Storm chance on February 3rd.

This run ends cold for a good amount of the country & there is energy showing in the southwest.

I’m not even trolling here, but the warm signal on the ensembles for this time period (at least Feb 1-5) is off the charts. I would not hold out much hope for anything that weekend. 

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Any amount is enough to cause havoc on the roads. I want none of it 

That’s what I’m saying. If we’re going to have havoc on the roads, which we will with 0.01” or a half inch, we might as well get a proper ice storm.

7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Also, when was the last time we had a good 2-4 inch front end thump transitioning to slop? It seems that those storms are something we don’t get and feels like we got them all the time 10-15 years ago. 

2/20/19, I think.

7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Yeah not a particular fan of this scenario. Last few HRRR runs have trended precip shield north of the city though leaving us in a dry slot.

 

im fine with that. 

.01” of freezing rain just doesn’t do anything for me. 

Mid 20s tomorrow morning seems too cold.

42 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Not to mention it's a Longshot but we could possibly get some snow next weekend. Need some good trends but it wouldn't take much in prime climo.

There does seem to be a little break between the unseasonable late week warmth and the unseasonable early February warmth, both of which seem to be a sure bet at this point. Hopefully something pans out in that window.

17 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

And with the warm start expected for the shortest month of the year, I don’t see how we don’t get our 8th above normal month in a row.

Is that another band SW of the city I see?

53 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

NWS Weather “headlines” aren’t scores. They are just one services way to broadly communicate what they think will happen. We like watches and warnings as weather fans because it kind of validates our tracking.

But no one in there right mind is going to check that 5 years from now. No one cares. People will however remember being stuck in 2” per hour rates.

In fact, headlines are for “county averages”, not for one location. So clearly this was an event that averaged at least 4” in the county. It absolutely “verified” (which again, is just us talking, not some official score).

If that band was 10 miles east and the kid working last night at NWS thought “hmm…I’m puttin up a warning for the county”, does that count as a WSW verified? Or no because half the county didn’t get it?

This stuff can be spun either way. But it’s silly try to position it so it fits the trolling agenda. It was a good winter day for most…a great winter day for some. 

Well said. It just sucks we couldn’t break the streak.

That said, and I said it yesterday too, I don’t think yesterday’s event was a bust. The advisory verified as a countywide average.

But to those who weren’t under the death band, yesterday will be just another day it snowed.

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

lol, stop reading the New York Times.  Snow is not going away.  We’re in a bum pattern, it happens.  Last decade was a pretty decent decade, this one may not be.

Lol I should have specified, when this snow is gone. I’m not irrational enough to think snow will completely be a thing of the past in 5 years.