TimB

8 hours ago, Ruin said:

Only 6 homes without power nmfkr last for hours. Site says ain't very reatore till 11pm 1/16

Underrated post.

3 hours ago, Ahoff said:

First call from NWS for Mon-Tues.  They're more confident than a lot here, lol.

 

Already cut significantly.

11 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Play every game in a controlled environment which is the way sports are moving to anyway. Better than lying about snow hitting peoples face so hard that it’s dangerous like the local news is saying. 

It’s ridiculous. But let them have this. Gambling depends on it.

NAM anyway. RGEM somehow held.

18z mesos say no.

It’s not, and has never been, about safety. It’s about gambling.

4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

And you know what’s even more dangerous than the snow. Having 60k fans out in -30 degree wind chills. Not postponing that one thought

Different situation. That one increases home field advantage rather than leveling the playing field for a heavy road underdog, so it’s all cool.

Just now, KPITSnow said:

That is a joke. This deprives is of seeing a truly remarkable spectacle 

I just wanted to see snow!

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

They moved the game to Monday at 430. Driving ban goes into affect tonight for all of erie county at 9 pm

So dumb. Play the game the way it was meant to be played.

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Gfs has nothing fwiw. Wish the globals got on board. 

CMC, ICON and UKMET are all fine.

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Something to consider for sure.  HRRR isn't too bad usually.  Single digits seems a little extreme for today, but maybe, tomorrow's high is only supposed to be around 21, so maybe.

HRRR handled the Arctic front in Dec 2022 very well. Looked at it, saw afternoon temps around -5 or -6 or so and dismissed it. Then it happened.

RGEM puts down 8” kuchera on its run.

16 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, and a lot of times surprise events do pop up.  It can happen.  I think too many people hinge the entire winter on 6"+ storms and historic storms.  That's not the Pittsburgh climate. We are and most always are a nickel and dime climate.

Wonder if any snow squalls pop up with any arctic fronts.  Another event that isn't well modelled.

On the squalls thing, HRRR is still on steroids with the fropa tomorrow. Drops afternoon temps into the single digits and puts down a quick inch.

Yeah we’ll only need 40” in Feb/March to get our seasonal total back to normal.

NWS has gone with “snow likely” in both the Tuesday and Friday windows. We’ll see.

12 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

If you want snow you generally don't want severe cold anyways.

Not much clarity overnight, same possibilities still on the table from medium impact snowfall to nothing. All the ops and ens suites seem to be ocilating within that goal post still. 

If there’s not going to be snow on the ground, I’d rather at least have something interesting.

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Shocking

Garden variety cold without snow on the ground. Nothing even interesting like -5 in the middle of the afternoon like the Christmas 2022 thing.

8 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Tired so not gonna disect the GFS but it trended towards the Euro. Is it right we shall see. Cmc is a great hit but the GFS and EPS ensembles don't agree with it. Need to start seeing this trend back NW or the CMC is out to lunch. 

 

It’s back on the 6z GFS but yeah, basically either east or gone on the lesser models (ICON, UKMET).

That said, the day will come in just 7 short years when last winter replaces 92-93 in the normals and this winter replaces 93-94.

Just now, Rd9108 said:

But it's happened before is what I'm getting at. We could follow up a low year this year with 60 inches next year. I don't believe any of that nonsense that this is the norm now. 

I mean logically, no, I don’t believe sub-20” winters have suddenly become the norm when we just had close to 60” a few years ago.

4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

It's a bad stretch I'm sure we've had some bad stretches in decades prior. 

Depends how you define bad stretches tbh. If this year ends up being less than 20” like last year, there’s only one time that’s happened back to back (the first 3 winters of the 1930s). So something no one here has lived through.

8 minutes ago, dj3 said:

No precipitation after the 2 monster cutter rainstorms this week would be cruel. But it has been consistently shown as an option with the PV dropping in and suppressing the STJ.

Not saying it would be a shock, just that it’d be a real kick in the nuts. It’s really hard to get a win around here anymore.

10 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

That's about the only certainty you can get from 12z. Pretty much all solutions from medium impact snowfall to nothing. Glad I don't have to bet on this cause I don't know which way I'd go. 

I wouldn't say dire straights. That might not be a super warm look, and signs the blocking wants to reload. I get your point though, by then we are entering the last 3rd of winter needing some big wins to hit climo.

February isn’t the best month to try and make up ground either, you’re battling climo as normals rise into the 40s by mid month.

Pretty strong signal for a ridge beyond day 10. If next week doesn’t pan out we could be in dire straits by the end of January.

7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Don't jump off the ledge yet. Still 3/4 days out from anything. Yeah the trends were terrible today with the risk of suppression, which makes sense. I'm sure it's gonna look totally different at 0z and 12z tomorrow. 

Meh, GEFS ensemble mean looked horrific. About 3” over the entire 16 days. That’s like 50% of climo for that period.