TimB

Just now, Rd9108 said:

But it's happened before is what I'm getting at. We could follow up a low year this year with 60 inches next year. I don't believe any of that nonsense that this is the norm now. 

I mean logically, no, I don’t believe sub-20” winters have suddenly become the norm when we just had close to 60” a few years ago.

4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

It's a bad stretch I'm sure we've had some bad stretches in decades prior. 

Depends how you define bad stretches tbh. If this year ends up being less than 20” like last year, there’s only one time that’s happened back to back (the first 3 winters of the 1930s). So something no one here has lived through.

8 minutes ago, dj3 said:

No precipitation after the 2 monster cutter rainstorms this week would be cruel. But it has been consistently shown as an option with the PV dropping in and suppressing the STJ.

Not saying it would be a shock, just that it’d be a real kick in the nuts. It’s really hard to get a win around here anymore.

10 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

That's about the only certainty you can get from 12z. Pretty much all solutions from medium impact snowfall to nothing. Glad I don't have to bet on this cause I don't know which way I'd go. 

I wouldn't say dire straights. That might not be a super warm look, and signs the blocking wants to reload. I get your point though, by then we are entering the last 3rd of winter needing some big wins to hit climo.

February isn’t the best month to try and make up ground either, you’re battling climo as normals rise into the 40s by mid month.

Pretty strong signal for a ridge beyond day 10. If next week doesn’t pan out we could be in dire straits by the end of January.

7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Don't jump off the ledge yet. Still 3/4 days out from anything. Yeah the trends were terrible today with the risk of suppression, which makes sense. I'm sure it's gonna look totally different at 0z and 12z tomorrow. 

Meh, GEFS ensemble mean looked horrific. About 3” over the entire 16 days. That’s like 50% of climo for that period.

Took the wind right out of my sails. 10 days of mostly cold weather and no snow in sight. It even makes it get above freezing next Thursday without even needing the help of a cutter.

GFS, Canadian and ICON all look acceptable for Mon/Tues.

Still, it’s slightly skewed by the fact that 2010 happened to be split pretty evenly between two days, which is just bad luck.

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

We are so overdo for a 12"+ calendar day, it's not even funny. I'm not sure this streak will ever end. Might be permanent.

We just hit 30 years on this streak last week.

It’s not going to snow this winter, but that’s affecting me less and less as spring becomes visible ahead of us.

51 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Tell that to the people that whine about any post that is slightly negative. @Ahoff and @Rd9108dp nothing but troll 

Ahoff and I have settled our beef. It might be freeing if you and Rd9108 did the same.

12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro is doing what is most likely gonna happen and forming the wave on further east most likely on the arctic front. Unless this amps up from a phase I just don't see this being a threat for us. Maybe we sneak an inch or two atleast but I wouldn't expect much more. Now the models this far out are gonna change so who knows. 

We did the bitter cold with bare ground thing twice last winter, why not do it again.

6z GFS wants to do the Tuesday thing now. Problem is, the Euro is now having none of it.

57 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I'm wondering if after this next cutter we get some better snow action on the back-end with some true arctic air coming in over very warm lake waters if we can get a favorable trajectory and a little embedded shortwave to help mix things up. 

Storm after is till on the Euro, and GFS seems to be at least showing the possibility of something in the same time frame too. 

Late next week also seems to be a window now. GFS and CMC both have something.

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

1.29” of precipitation reported on my weather station so far today.

Another daily record at PIT. 1.25”. We’re slowly continuing to lose days that have never recorded an inch of precip.

37 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. The Weather Channel has this for Monday:

Watching a potential winter storm. Variably cloudy with snow showers. High around 25F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Snowfall around one inch.

Variably cloudy with snow showers. Low 14F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

I will say I find more often that not that when they include that "Watching a potential winter storm" language, it means we get to watch a winter storm go somewhere else other than Pittsburgh.

I haven’t seen that language that far out in awhile.

GFS and its ensemble want nothing to do with that storm. More Arctic influence and deeper cold.

17 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

28 runs to go 

Only 14 for those of us who don’t pay for pivotal 

The early next week thing looks good on the Euro.

Well, p-type must have been snow at onset. What a slushy mess.

Hate tossing weeks when there aren’t that many left, but hopefully something pans out. I’m confident that with all these storms and polar vortex pieces rolling through the US, we have a good shot at cashing in somewhere.

31 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Which model handled this last system the best overall?

Seems the Euro was too much snow for us, and GFS was too little.  Maybe the future is somewhere in between the two.

I think the GFS did much better for our area. Can’t speak for overall, for the entire area the storm affected.

6z GFS looked great. Keeps us cold but not bitter cold from late week on and in an active storm track with lots of opportunities to score. 

Euro, not so much. After the weekend storm (which does little for us) it pumps a pretty sizable eastern ridge out ahead of that piece of polar energy. I’d think that’s a warm and wet to cold and dry scenario.

I would guess a lot of our upcoming pattern depends on where the piece of polar energy ejects, which is far from certain at this point.

And on a weather note, the 18z gfs was beautiful if maybe a little implausible. Lots of storm opportunities, yeah we get blasted with punishing waves of cold later in the run, and it honestly looks like it just spit out the coldest 7 day period on record for parts of the lower Midwest and some of the south.