TimB

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Actually after further analysis, I think a record hot summer in the entire threaded record is still possible - albeit remote. But in 2024, I wouldn't toss it out as a possibility. I feel like, despite the warm start, this is probably the cool period of July and the rest of the month might be even hotter. We are currently 1.5F above 1995 to date, which ended up 0.7F cooler than the mythical summer of 1900.  Obviously, expecting another August 1995 is a longshot. But I do think July this year is looking like it could put up a number like August 1995 or July 2020, when all is said and done.

Already could be back in the mid 90s tomorrow and/or Tuesday, with nothing below normal in sight.

Another 90 in the bag, brings us to 6 on the season. Most since 2020.

Here’s 1976-2023:

40s in July occurred 9 out of 12 years from 1977-1988 and 14 out of 34 years from 1977-2010, so about once every 2-3 years over that timespan. It’s now been 14 years since we’ve gotten into the 40s in July and I wouldn’t be surprised if none of us see that again in our lifetime.

Yes, plenty of places got into the lower 50s this morning. But those places were likely also 3-4 degrees colder than the airport in years past when temperatures at the airport got to levels nearly every July that haven’t been reached in July in a decade.

Looks like PIT bottomed out at 54, so it’s likely we’ll go a 10th straight July without getting to 53 or lower, which is again something that used to happen nearly every July.

NWS explicitly forecasting a low of 53 at PIT tonight. I’m skeptical we get there, but we haven’t been to 53 or lower in July since 2014 (we got there every July from 1976-2003 and in 52 out of the first 62 Julys observed at the airport through 2014).

Man, that low of 77 this morning would have held and tied the all time record for Pittsburgh International if not for that stupid mid-morning thunderstorm that dropped us to 73.

One more heatwave stat: it was 81 at PIT at 8am Sunday (didn’t drop below 80 overnight that night). That’s the third warmest 8am temp ever observed at Pittsburgh International, behind 7/17/1988 and 6/29/2012, which were both 82 at 8am.

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

SPC has Pittsburgh in a 5-9 percent risk of tornadoes (within 25 miles) for tomorrow. Given recent tornadoes with less than 2 percent risk, may be something to watch.

Anecdotal, but I feel like we do better on days that are less hyped.

90 might be in trouble again today. I do think we get there, but still a far cry from historic.

29 minutes ago, canderson said:

69 was my low. CTP has my forecast high Friday to hit 100 now. 

Take the day off and cool off in East Nantmeal.

6 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, pretty major fail.  I’d say that’s on par with predicting a foot of snow and getting an inch.

The thing that’s odd is they won’t usually predict a foot of snow 4 days out, so that type of bust doesn’t happen. So it’s odd that they’d predict triple digit heat at the same lead time.

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like we’re going to be 89’d again like Sunday. Meanwhile, an all-time record of 96F in Caribou, Maine. Add northern Maine to the list of places that do heat better than Pittsburgh. 

Pretty impressive if we fall short of 90 when the zone forecast was calling for a high of “near 100” in Allegheny County today as recently as 1pm on Saturday, just 96 hours out.

High so far at the airport is 87 or 88 despite hitting 84 by 9:40 this morning and having no cold front and zero precip. I wonder if that’s ever happened.

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Quite cloudy and hazy today. Probably going to be a slower climb today. Should still reach 90+ with the high starting point.

Interestingly, heat advisory criteria have yet to be met at PIT. Highest heat index so far has been 99.

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Wow KPIT, on the 5 min obs jumped to 81 at 8:30am.

Running several degrees ahead of yesterday, but some of that may be a product of a warmer overnight low.

3 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

"mistakes" as Charlie calls it.....of course it must be a mistake!! LOL

You’ll never be convinced. Fortunately everyone on this board and most people in real life consider you an idiot.

57 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

High was at least 92 at KPIT. Probably 93 or 94, based on 5 minute data. Multiple observations of 34C/93F, but that could be between 33.5C and 34.4C [92.3-93.9F].

Looks like another 94. That’s 2 in a row. We haven’t had 3 days in a row of 94+ in any month since 1995.

2 hours ago, TimB said:

These storms developing don’t seem to have much forward motion to them. Seems like they’ll drop a lot of rain wherever they do end up hitting.

Case in point, the storm currently sitting over MGW airport dropped over an inch of rain in less than a half hour, with a gust to 54mph.

DuBois was 92 on the last hourly obs, which ties their monthly record for June.

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, international! It's been upgraded? Where are they flying to internationally?

Not international, but I’ve been told you can now fly from Johnstown to Chicago-O’Hare, which was shocking to me.

8 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Honestly, I won’t respond to a certain very sensitive poster, but was there a complaint in my post?  I stated a fact and then made an observation.  I’m not bothered by it at all.  Humidity is definitely the culprit from the rain yesterday.

This certainly isn’t going to ruin my day like snow does for someone, but it’s just interesting.  90 looks locked today, just a question of how high it goes.

Also, I wonder if that hazy layer will actually help keep storms down today?  Maybe without the most direct sun it keeps it a bit more stable.

Admit it, you’re a little sad that the insane heat probably won’t be materializing this time. I was, until the storms knocked out tens of thousands of people’s power yesterday and realized that it’s pure luck that it wasn’t me. Now I could take or leave the extreme stuff.

These storms developing don’t seem to have much forward motion to them. Seems like they’ll drop a lot of rain wherever they do end up hitting.

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

It’s funny how much you complain about temperatures but absolutely lose your mind about anything I say about snow.

 

I don’t want to hear it once this winter from you. 

And here we go. How’s Reddit?

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Lagging behind yesterday’s temps by 2 degrees.  Clear most locations except KPIT, lol.  They have a knack.

Humidity is up from yesterday and it’s already that filtered hazy sunshine imby, so maybe not just at the airport.