TimB

Just now, Rd9108 said:

Meanwhile there were parts of the county that verified warning criteria 

Yeah the whole thing overperformed.

3.1 NWS obs. We did it!

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

There’s a 6.5” report in Imperial.  I don’t see how the airport doesn’t reach 3”.  And if it doesn’t I don’t think I could trust the recorders.  The airport was absolutely seeing parts of that heavy band.

Ah but the NWS office isn’t at the airport, it’s a little north and that’s where the obs is taken.

I’d say this thing verified and then some, whether the official total at PIT gets there or not.

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Looking at the radar, probably not. 

I’m also thinking no. Meanwhile there’s a report from Imperial, a few miles away, of 4”. It’s like the streak just doesn’t want to end or the NWS observer doesn’t want it to.

Official NWS obs at 9pm was 1.9”. Hopefully they can squeeze out another inch.

Advisory/warning map is kinda wonky. You’ve got counties with warnings bordering counties with nothing.

1 hour ago, Mailman said:

Places in eastern Ohio already measuring 4". 

That’s actually a pretty big whiff by the NWS. Those areas were supposed to get 2-2.5”.

They also dropped our amounts in the text of the advisory back to 2-4.

3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I might eat crow here. Looks like the band in OH is angling more north and lateST HRR showing the same 

PBZ upgraded those Ohio counties to a warning.

That early band looks like it might clip the south hills. Probably no love for those of us who are north.

NWS introduced the “heavy at times” wording to the 4pm forecast package.

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

I think personally KPIT will have a hard time breaking the advisory verification streak 

Has the disadvantage of being west for an event that’s going to perform best south and east. But can’t rule it out.

HRRR is starting to look kinda meh. Hopefully that’s not a sign.

6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

last few runs of the HRRR have backed off quite a bit. 12z had a general 3-6 county wide with some spikes but now maxes out at 4, thought it is probably way more realistic 

I would accept a solution that settles somewhere around the 3” that the NWS is calling for. I’d love 4-6, but that seems like an unrealistic expectation.

I’m liking the way this is trending. Advisory level event on most to all guidance at the moment.

Where do I sign for the 12z HRRR?

Not going to clog up the snow thread, but it’s funny that PIT apparently gusted to 60 at 6:33pm and then a wind advisory was issued 14 minutes later.

NAM looked fine too.

HRRR improved again at 0z. Now up to a 2-3” type event.

18z HRRR was a significant improvement over 12z.

On 2/13/2024 at 6:24 PM, Ahoff said:

This is assuming we don't have any winters with 60"+ in the coming years, and there is no way of knowing that.  Next year could be the snowiest ever.  It's always possible.

That’s fine, we still have 95-96 to replace in the normals.

On 1/24/2024 at 10:24 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

Doubt we will see a near total shutout after Groundhog's Day this year... odds would certainly say no, anyways.

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Atleast we have a 1-3 shot with a clipper coming. Hopefully it overperforms and we can somehow get to over 20 inches on the season.

With PIT sitting at 11.6 for the season, that’s a steep climb.

One chance at meaningful snowfall in 2 years! Hope it somehow works out for us.