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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. The game result was expected. The storm isn’t over yet and may or may not pan out. Falling short of warning criteria would absolutely be a major, indisputable bust, but not exactly suicide material.
  2. That long duration one at end of Jan/beginning of Feb. Yes, we did.
  3. NAM isn’t terrible, but puts down a swath of 3 feet way up in NE Ohio.
  4. Not to be a contrarian, but there was the mid-Feb one where rain went like 100 miles further NW than modeled. But it is incredible that we avoided p-type issues in all the other storms.
  5. 4 of them being the key. It's going to be hard to get 4 of them this year, so the ones we do get better be good.
  6. HRRR still suggests an additional 9" on top of what has fallen so far.
  7. I wouldn't say it's doom and gloom for me, more or less just matter of fact statements about how we never get all snow out of a winter storm in Pittsburgh and we all should have known better, including the NWS.
  8. Not at all. I don't want a bust, and I still think we get to a respectable total (which, IMO, is >8"), so don't lump me in with him.
  9. NWS point & click was updated at 7:52 and suggests another 8" at PIT before snow ends tomorrow.
  10. I think we can get there. A lot has to go right, but a lot has gone wrong so far and it has to swing back the other way, right?
  11. Keeping the faith that we don't dry slot, but the radar makes that hard.
  12. If I recall correctly from the models this morning, there was about 6" on the ground by the time the dry slot encroached at 10 or 11 pm. That's a tough ask.
  13. Band of yellow coming up from the south seems to be diminishing as it approaches.
  14. It is without a doubt a major p-type bust. Whether or not it matters for totals is still the question.
  15. Whatever happens from here on out, this heavy snow is awesome. A few more bands of this would be just the ticket.
  16. Doesn’t matter if it’s 35 or 15, all snow is always the underdog when it comes to p-types in a Pittsburgh winter storm.
  17. Of course it is, but what can you do? The NAM was showing this issue from the time this storm got into its range, but we all dismissed it (but so did the pros, so I don’t feel as bad).
  18. And there’s the sleet/zr. WAA is undefeated in Pittsburgh.
  19. Ripping pretty good in the north hills now. Almost all snow.
  20. Hopefully those yellows and oranges don’t find a way to split the areas close to the city. Looks like they could.
  21. The right side of the chart. Chance of seeing more than 6” is 80% or so for most of the county.
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