TimB

What’s more, this seems to be a theme almost daily for the last week or so. Falling 2-4 degrees short of forecast highs at both PIT and AGC. I’m betting against 90 tomorrow and Tuesday.

It gets better. The @paweather 540 line makes its way through all of PA that weekend. Even snow up north.

GFS really wants to stall out a low sometime this weekend and/or next week. The other day there was a run where it sat there for nearly a week.

83 at noon might make 90 a tough ask.

It will be interesting to see if this morning’s low of 73 holds through midnight. Should be close, but if it does, it will be the new warmest low ever recorded in May.

It seems the exact track and timing of these MCVs is always difficult to nail down too far in advance. I don’t even think this system existed 36 hours ago.

You could even convince me 85 is in jeopardy. HRRR is consistently topping us out at 81 or 82.

Usually in the cold sector ahead of a warm front, vs. a surface based warm sector storm that would bring damaging winds/tornadoes down to the surface more readily. Not sure about the getting temperatures warmer part - would it help pull the warm front through?

Could see where tomorrow busts low depending on timing of rain and clouds. We won’t have that issue on Saturday, but at this juncture 90 tomorrow might be a struggle. Sunday is trending warmer too.

Hey now, I can’t complain. I got the temperatures I wanted for all 3 holiday weekends last summer, though I could have done without the rain for Memorial Day weekend. It’s good to have some balance in life.

Sounds like it’s not. But still 10 days out and I’d have faith in this general pattern more likely producing a warm holiday weekend than a cold one.

I haven’t done my 12z model watching yet. 2021 redux or massive heat wave?

Not getting to 90 is quite Maverick indeed.

NWS is slowly converging on that solution as well. My point and click are now 89/88 for Fri/Sat. Records for both days are 92 and might not be completely safe.

SPC is a lot less bullish on this than they were yesterday. Upper flow won’t sync up as well with the front as was expected with the faster frontal passage that was previously depicted.

Nothing I love more than a dry-ish frontal passage with slowly falling temps and dewpoints behind it.

I’d watch the weekend cold front. Large swaths of severe potential from the SPC as that thing moves east.

Not sure I can agree with you on Matheson. He had as many lapses that cost us goals, games, and eventually the series as Letang and Marino did. I thought the Ruhwedel/Friedman pairing played a solid series, but they’re of course role players. So maybe ultimately it wasn’t Crosby or Jarry, but actually the Dumoulin injury that really screwed us. Regardless, a fourth straight 1st round exit and all 3 of the teams in this city are officially in rebuilding mode. Would have been nice to enter this dark age without already having a 4 year streak of not advancing in the playoffs already under our belts.

Let’s take this thread back to its roots and throw in a hockey complaint. Same crap, different year. Sullivan needs to go.

Hard to tell how that plays out. GFS has been consistent in its depiction of a hurricane blasting across Florida in that timeframe so that could have some say in our weather in PA if it materializes. Euro does look quite chilly with that system coming out of the Midwest and tracking across the lower Great Lakes.

The 95 was 61 on the next run, lol.

Might be a stretch, but daily records are 92-93 in that timeframe. We’ve set daily record lows on 11 different May days since the last time we set a daily record high in May.

I’m certainly not arguing that it makes it better, I’m with you that it looks wonky as all hell. It’s the Susquehanna River, not Lake Superior. Just relaying info about how the ASOS obs are calculated.

Sure, it’s the operational CMC at 234 hours, but:

MDT’s official high was 80, so the 81 was definitely a rounding of a Celsius number. I learned some new stuff about how this ASOS stuff works yesterday (or at least how it worked in 1998, when the below was published, and it’s possible it hasn’t changed). The 5-min obs are actually averages of five 1-min obs. It’s described in section 3.1.2 of the link below. https://www.weather.gov/media/asos/aum-toc.pdf