TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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PIT will probably record a non-zero accumulation for today to pad the stats, judging from the obs for the past hour or two. Little comfort to those of us staring out the window at grass. -
Oh for Christ’s sake. Edit: just kidding, that’s a 12 hour map. We still get a nice little 3 inch event on the front end.
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NWS has revised the forecast event total for Pittsburgh to exactly 0” for today’s system.
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This. This is all.
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Summer is easier to appreciate after a real winter and when there isn’t a 75% chance it extends deep into October as recent climo would indicate.
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Comical
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But there’s still Wednesday to hold out what little hope we have for this week and winter. Lord knows the GFS solution where it’s cold next weekend after a little clipper is being tossed on sight in favor of the euro torch by anyone doing any degree of forecasting, and it’s shown it for like 7 runs in a row now.
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GFS seems completely lost. It’s way out of phase with the Euro even a week out, and same goes for the ensembles. It’s been consistent with pushing an Arctic front through here about a week from now, and all other guidance seems to be warm for that period.
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It’s not a bad snow to rain to snow setup. Ukie looks even better for what it’s worth. Drops warning level snow in 6 hours before the changeover. GEFS ensemble mean deteriorated from 18z tho. I’m ready to be hurt.
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The 18z GFS is fantastic! A nice little borderline advisory level event Sunday and a nice thump of very heavy snow at daybreak Wednesday! What’s not to love! Better?
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18z GFS doing 18z things. I don’t imagine anyone here would be unhappy if next week played out that way, but it’s probably a pipe dream.
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Really starting to look like the window closes quickly again if the upcoming week fails us. Euro and EPS are already saying warm next weekend.
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3k NAM is probably the ceiling for the Sunday event. Drops a clean 3” of all snow, but of course that’s still in the end of its range. NWS is carrying next to nothing and mostly rain. Is it over?
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Euro is still holding onto a scenario where it isn’t complete garbage and we get decent snow on the front end, but we all know the warm air always comes in way faster than modeled.
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Can’t be any p-type issues if there’s no precip!
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Sun’s out. Hopefully that brings the storms later.
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Let’s get some good severe tonight that knocks out the power for several days so we don’t have to look at these progressively more depressing model runs.
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CMC looks like it’s going to agree. Once again, it’s over.
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CMC is even worse. Has the low center on the VA/NC line near the coast, then runs it up the coast and it’s raining in Pittsburgh.
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Sun-Mon is almost workable on the GFS. Wed is a disaster.
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The ensembles still look kind of acceptable, I guess.
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Every single model that ran overnight continues our misery next week and proves that it was silly that we ever hoped for something good. Unreal.
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I’d buy what the 18z GFS is selling. Sunday-Monday is a bust but Wednesday is a borderline advisory/warning level event and there’s another storm the following weekend, but that’s way too far out to make any judgments.
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Euro is a winner with the Wednesday storm.
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Pretty much certain that we’ll make it through Saturday without a 2” daily snowfall since last March, which would be 300 days without a 2” snowfall. This will be the 9th time this century (23 years, 9/23 = 39%). Prior to 2000, that occurred 16 times in 120 years (16/120 = 13%).
