TimB

Tuesday maybe, if we’re below 70 by midnight Monday night. Looks like we’ll bounce back closer to average pretty quick. But yeah, looks like chances of hitting 90 in June are on life support.

Unapologetic card-carrying coldmeister here (obviously). Be interesting to see if that changes as I get older.

They seem to enjoy their summers with wall-to-wall gates of hell heat, so it’s exciting when any model shows that, whether it’s 2 days out or 25.

GFS is Exhibit A when it comes to illustrating the practical limits on how far out you can realistically model/forecast. Of course, now we have the GEFS ensemble that goes to 840 hours instead of 384. Wonder what the accuracy of that thing is at day 35.

Fortunately we get about 60 model runs for that to change, and we know for at least the next 5 or 6 days each run of the GFS will alternate between that scenario and a massive heat wave and everything in between.

I’m also in the camp of wanting a pleasantly warm 4th of July. Somewhere around 80 w/o humidity would be ideal. That said, 70 would be preferable to 90, and 60 would be preferable to 100.

@Bubbler86did you see the 6z GFS’s take on the 4th of July? Won’t post because it’s both fantasy land and blasphemy.

As long as the good stuff keeps showing up on the models, I have hope.

Indeed, GFS seems to handle radiational cooling a lot better than the EC.

But does the problem you mentioned arise here too: given that the Euro maps display in 6 hour increments, you get a 6z and a 12z. In winter the 12z is awfully close to when the low temperature would normally occur but in the summer the low temperature typically occurs closer to 9-10z.

Oh right, we got our franchise QB!

I still continued to watch the Steelers the last few games of the season even after it became obvious how it would end, so disappointment doesn’t faze me.

Euro doing Euro things. Slower frontal passage Tuesday. (But 91 to 64 in 24 hours in my neck of the woods.)

Looks like it wants to run some serious heat up the eastern seaboard in the entertainment purposes portion of the run, but even that looks to be more bearable and transient inland before it gets snuffed out by another cold front.

You’re right, I was only at 15z Tuesday before the front clears.

But feast or famine on the precip. It has me getting 5+ by Tuesday. Less than an inch out your way.

GFS still seems to be on track for anomalous cold. Maybe even running a degree or two colder than the prior run.

No doubt. It’d be interesting to see if/how people adapt, but I’m hoping I’m dead and gone before the situation becomes too dire. One more thing semi-related to this tangent Re: Lake Mead/Powell. Las Vegas fell one degree short of their all time record high of 117 yesterday and Page, AZ (the town adjacent to Lake Powell) set its new all time record high of 110, though records there only date back to 1957 as that town was constructed around that time for the sole purpose of building the Glen Canyon Dam. I have a lot more to say about this off-topic issue, and I could go on and on, but there’s a GFS run incoming.

I agree that there’s plenty of time for people to adapt, and yes, media will play all kinds of things up for clicks, but (unless this is cyclical) at some point the lakes probably will dry up and people will need to innovate in the meantime to assure sustainability, though I believe there almost certainly will come a point where it’s not sustainable to have millions and millions of people in Phoenix and Las Vegas, parts of California, etc. anymore.

I’m familiar with Lake Powell from when I lived out west and it’s my understanding that both Lake Mead and Lake Powell (and the millions of people that rely on them) are in big trouble. It’s sad.

It hasn’t yet.

On the first point, June will still very likely clock in above average for both me and yinz, so there’s been plenty for the warm weather lovers to enjoy already and there will almost certainly be much more. I just like when it’s interspersed with absolutely sublime days like yesterday that are a non-rain induced 72/36 in the “heat” of the day and then drop into the 40s or even low/mid 50s at night. We’ll all get our rain at some point, I have faith in that. Pattern isn’t ideal but models outside of the GFS don’t look terrible. Might come with more severe here tomorrow, third time this week I’m in a slight risk and the last two verified (western PBZ counties in Ohio are actually in a D2 enhanced risk, so we’ll see if that expands east), but timing might allow you guys to avoid the really nasty weather (or miss out on it, depending on perspective).

Thing is, there will be heat and there will be humidity this summer. But the longer we can have this pattern keep coming back, the less we have to endure. After the time of this map, there are less than 10 weeks of met summer left.

It’s a stretch, but I’d say we have a nonzero chance of hitting 90 on Monday ahead of the next cool down.

Yeah, you guys are doing much worse with precip than we are this month and we’re a hair below average (well officially anyway, some of us out here got a lot of rain in that pop up storm regime). 1” per 10 days will just exacerbate that.