SnowenOutThere

Its really odd behavior, and just looking at the long range runs verbatim (which is what I assume spawns a lot of the debbing) it doesn't even look that bad. I mean the CMC has an ice storm at the end of its run and the GFS still has cold on the continent, its not like they are showing complete shit the blinds. Additionally, even if we get absolutely nothing for the rest of the year I think this winter would go down as a "win" compared to what we all thought it would be. Sometimes people just are miserable though I suppose.

Seems like it also gets yanked north by NS interference, sorta a bizarre solution. Though cold air wasn't the issue this time.

It was amazing for the first part. I went all the way to black rock so the last 2 miles out of 8 was a bit of a slog, got some amazing pictures of icicles and the snow. Also saw some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen with snow fog obscuring visibility to the end of straight parts of the trail. Would highly recommend going there next time us lowlanders are going to fail, though did have to learn how to drive on snow covered roads for the first time on the way back for 20 miles. Regardless, made an awesome Sunday.

I went hiking there during the storm Sunday, its a beautiful spot, though I think it does look a better during the storm

Even if that phase it verbatim is close a cad ice storm event, and has another opportunity set up behind it. I do agree that if we want an all snow/frozen outcome that the NS phase wont work but I think a minor event could still happen depending on CAD strength.

Might be setting up something pretty cool way out in fantasy range though

12z Euro seemed pretty close to the 6z Euro Ai solution but a little further north which hurt us

Can't wait for their cancelation tomorrow, its my "hard" class day too!

Ah, so inaccurate thermometers are the new underwater volcanoes.

Definitely fair to say anyone southeast of Fredrick County busted pretty badly even by the more conservative morning NWS predictions.

On the drive back from the catoctins there definitely seemed to be a fall off in snow amounts just past ashburn on I-15, glad you managed to get into that. Personally got to. .75 without the ending bands accounted for yet, hoping to clinch an inch.

On the drive it started snowing well near point of rocks before really ripping from mid Fredrick county onwards, only started sticking when I got to the trail though.

Briefly had some white rain in Reston as a batch of yellows came through even with the temp at 37. Bodes well for when rates improve later today but I’m heading out to the catoctins now.

Thinking I'll go on a hike near the catocotins late morning today to try to ensure no matter what happens in the low lands I'm able to have a nice winters day.

36.9 and light rain near Reston. Can really see the radar beginning to pop, just need the temps to crash…

My ambient weather station has me down to 33.1 which seems suspiciously low.

RGEM finally caving with a further southeast rain snow line.

Seems like I live in nearly the exact same spot you used to, will say what you said about the two snowfall "jumps" still holds up. Despite being right next to Dulles distance wise they always seem to do significantly better in these setups than my backyard. Though I do wonder if that second jump in snowfall will continue to move further northwest over time...

So would you say out by Reston is closer to the 3-6 zone than the 1-3 south of I-66 one your forecast had? Just had a little bit of trouble figuring out where each zone reached from your forecast, but either way its always awesome to have actual mets provide input in these threads!

I would argue the main difference with the HRRR is the fact that its qdf is on the extreme low end outside of that one band

Got 6-8, we're locked in now

NAM 3k looks really good, thermal boundary way south out of the way even for CAPE. Though FV3 is further north...

Around .1 just south of Reston. Seemed like most of the good blotches went a little to the north, either way can’t complain about a nice snow shower

It looks like it should be good. Need to wait for actual confirmation

Do you have the vort or 500mb maps? Can’t quite tell from the surface map if that’s going out to sea or gonna climb the coast