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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    Euro kneels to the king but does not collapse, lets hope it fully pays service to the GFS for the Sunday storm
  2. SnowenOutThere
    CMC is slightly slower with the cold push
  3. SnowenOutThere
    Holy crap, look at those rates
  4. SnowenOutThere
    I like the weekend storm on the GFS
  5. SnowenOutThere
    Really reduces the QDF with the second push of precip, which is probably the main issue.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    The FV3 looks pretty similar with the cold push at hour 60 to the GFS, unfortunately it is the FV3
  7. SnowenOutThere
    Slightly better than 6z in multiple respects, gets the cold here a tiny bit quicker and the moisture stays a bit longer giving us a slight period of frozen precip at the end.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    A lot out news outlets have been advertising a warm up to the 50s and 60s later this week, if the NAM is right that forecast would look quite bad
  9. SnowenOutThere
    NAM 3k is lock step with the gfs at the end of its run
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Well if you are, could we get a pbp?
  11. SnowenOutThere
    This storm definitely is a good test for the new GFS, seeing it go up against the other globals and even have two runs back to back with an significant ice storm while the others show nothing definitely puts it at odds with the majority for now. So I guess we will see if the GFS is sniffing out a trend or just sniffing glue.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Only 8 have rain instead of frozen, pretty decent odds on the gefs.
  13. SnowenOutThere
    GFS has another storm right after
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Tends to happen, it has me get .6 inches of ice in 6 hours during the heavy precip which seems wrong, so that amount should not really be counted. After the precip becomes lighter and the temps drop is the more concerning period for me, and gives me around .3 to .4 more ice. So even discounting the heavy ice in the 30s it would still be quite the event.
  15. SnowenOutThere
    GFS gives me 9/10ths of an inch of ice, would be a devastating ice event if that happens. Heck even half of that amount would be a huge ice storm.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    Yikes, if this is even close to correct it would be a mess
  17. SnowenOutThere
    As long as it holds steady the threat is still there. Helps us make sure its not a burp run and lets us see if the on run Euro and CMC show it
  18. SnowenOutThere
  19. SnowenOutThere
    GFS is sorta a weenie run with how we get two ice storms in three days this weekend and then a sustained cold pattern with chances for snow.
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Ok I understand but, don’t bring up an forecast for an incomplete winter that based solely on snowfall averages for the rest of winter will be incorrect as proof you can get things right. I know you can get things right but that is not proof of anything yet.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    So, with March and all of February left which are on average better combined for snow than January you are touting your forecast as a success?
  22. SnowenOutThere
    You got to remember he is in Winchester, so maybe a 40/60 for him while we are the 20/80
  23. SnowenOutThere
    GFS allows a slight storm next Monday due to the northern stream disturbance backing off a bit and does not crush the southern energy one as much.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    GFS has the energy a bit further laggier and a bit broader as well, compared two 12z. I would think? Please correct me if I am wrong I am trying to learn while making observations
  25. SnowenOutThere
    The temp problems make sense, there is no high pressure to be seen to supply cold air
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