SnowenOutThere
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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
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Looks like the improvements at h5 and the low being closer to the coast and stronger hurt us by robbing our moisture from the northern stream a bit? Highest snowfall closest to the coast and a sharper northern edge. Regardless the trend for the low to be closer and stronger (if it continues) would be a good way to get a lot more benefit from the coastal and is a good sign for a larger snowstorm being possible.
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6z GFS 12z GFS
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Hmmmm
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Looks a good bit more neutral tilt around hour 90 compared to 6z
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Same, played tennis with my friends
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I would be happy with 38, as for 14 I just thought it would be funny to see how inland it was
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Snow maps? Would like to see a couple of those panels (14, 38) for research purposes of course.
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He is upset that he has not gotten as much snow as he should have by now. Despite having more days with snow on the ground than the majority of the forum. This is due to most storms missing to the east and south which this storm also appears to be doing on the latest run of the GFS.
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H5 (I think) looks slightly better and has the energy behind the storm dig far less which probably also helped a bit
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GFS has the period of light snow for Sunday morning but also has a but more coastal moisture leading to a widespread 3+ inch event with a 6 inch strip
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Euro is worse for the Valentines day threat compared to its 0z run, not what we needed but oh well.
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What's up with the snow on the 12z GFS across the region starting at hour 114?
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I believe that this is simply a miller A that bombs out too late for us. The current GFS and Icon have a low pressure off the coast south of NC. This is due to a SS and NS component that phases too late. This picture of the 6z GFS shows how it is a miller A due to the low off the coast and no miller B element.
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Very frosty out today
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You are fine, when has the Ukie not laid a dukie for a forecast post 100 hours
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Far sharper trough but never goes negative, remains positive tilt the whole time, plenty of time for changes.
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HRRR trending better precip wise for what its worth
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Definitely, the way the radar is lined up we seem to at the very least have some sort of precipitation moving in when most models predicted nothing, if only it could arrive 8 hours earlier or later or it just be a bit colder out.
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Hmmmm, if only it was colder. Either way we can just use the good ole weenie rule that the precip will cool the column enough to snow.
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Any ideas on when those next threats might be? Besides Valentines day
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Looks like the bottom energy goes neutral tilt while the second piece of energy dives in behind it at a positive tilt and then phases with the first thing turning the whole system positive tilt. I think that’s what happens at least if anyone smarter than me wants to correct me please do.
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I like what the gfs is selling
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#TheBigOnesAreSniffedOutEarly
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I would take this storm
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