SnowenOutThere

What are it's biases?

Just need another 25 miles southeast for the temp line and we are looking good. Lots of potential with this system based on the amount of precip alone.

The Canadian model went the wrong way unfortunately at 12z by bringing the primary low further north.

CMC cuts into Canada with the primary but still has some front end ice.

Before you think that something can't happen because it looks weird remember that we had a storm that went from the outer banks to Harrisonburg last year.

CMC looks a bit better and may be closer to the ICON, but the GFS looks the same as its 6z run

Looks almost identical

Just need that to happen a day or so earlier, though there is minimal cold to work with as depicted on the Euro.

So close, phases the blobs of energy this run unlike 0z, definitely time left on the table for a positive outcome. The H5 looks very close to something

CMC made a major improvement for a mixed event for the region, even ends as snow for the metro centers.

I’d take the southern slider if it meant we got that.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1615097732099710983?s=20&t=El_o5afTqNPXT-EpIT8ZKg

Probably could make the case for a subtropical low at this point. Maybe post season review will bring it up.

Happy January! It looks like the low pressure off the Atlantic coast could become something interesting and decided now was as good as time as any to start the thread. Let’s hope we can get more luck tracking tropics than snow so far this year.

Nope, I’ve accepted it won’t snow most likely and still think any sort of weather is cool, it’s why I stick around here during the summer. BTW if the weather is “boring” that typically means it’s nice outside so then I get to actually go outside, it’s a win win.

Because when I was 5 there was a snow shower and I remember going outside after it snowed for 20 minutes and sweeping the dusting we got off the deck and thinking how did that happen. Ever since I’ve just been fascinated with the weather but hearing that it won’t snow won’t ruin my day because at this point it’s what I expect and what has happened my whole life. Not to mention snow is the least of my climate/weather related concerns going forward.

If the most climate change effects our lives is through this hobby I will consider myself the luckiest person alive, we gotta remember that this is all small scale issues compared to the real damage it will do and has done already. I've gotten the opportunity to grow up in the 2010s but that also means I don't remember any of our awesome winters but I remember seeing countless headlines about how climate change is already here and going to get worse, so this new normal is what I and my generation onward will grow up with, snow is the least of our concerns weather wise.

In an atmospheric science forum we can't just directly mention climate change because it might upset some people, just like how that post about sea ice decreasing got deleted because it directly said the issue is climate change.

Snow over MA at 219, well except for @Ji

I think the why part is pretty settled, if we look around the biggest part in why our storms have failed is warmth either directly or indirectly. Its the simplest reason that we have failed, as @psuhoffman pointed out our pattern is better than the previous worst snowfall periods but our snowfall total is lower. What is the simplest explanation for this change? AGW.

Already know this post is gonna be an interesting and thoughtful read that goes into why/how our climo has changed instead of acting like it hasn't.

@psuhoffman You jotting down notes after this GFS run?

I'm just confused because typically anytime further than 5 days out snow maps shouldn't really be put ahead of other map types to my limited knowledge. So is it a good thing that the GEFS's snow mean got better but H5 looks worse because at this range I would think that wouldn't be the case.