If it follows the evolution of our other storms we should see a decent storm on the models for a bit (yesterday) then it goes in the wrong direction fast, a bit past 100 hours out. Then over the following days as the threat reaches inside 100 hours small treads start making the storm possible again but it is generally locked in as a minor event. Finally, after days of minor progress to an possible event one run from the globals destroy the event. However, people still cling to the short term models as they slowly remove any hope, in the end we get around .5 of an inch.