SnowenOutThere

Yep, our historically run in the past 10 years has been a combination of failing to get good patterns combined with the extremely frustrating habit of wasting the patterns we do get. Is what it is but does continue to sting that we are going to exit another rare respite in our bad patterns with two close calls.

I like this storm. Quick dustings-coatings are my favorites because its low stress and still pretty.

Southern/central VA 1-3 inch events have been my specialty this year

Gotta feel bad for them after getting shafted by this storm and the one that hit us. At least we aren't them.

Its a great look. I would replay last weekend over and over again if I could as we got probably the "worst" outcome we could besides suppression given the pattern.

Remember when everyone was calling this threat dead at 12z. Good times. Seriously though we gotta see how our current failure plays out to know what this one will do so we got at least two more days of model swinging.

Yeah would suck to get a total of 2 inches of snow before the flip to sleet and then watch a storm hit south... Seriously though it is what it is and we'll have more chances. Don't need to doom and gloom yet.

If it’s based on this weekend they are completely different setups. Besides this weekend was never a good chance! It had a high upside but the ens barely ever had a 30%+ of an inch!

If you look at past runs like yesterday that had the storm further north we had an 850 low in the Ohio valley which was advecting warm air northward. It’s a delicate balance and id rather be on the southern end than the rainy northern end.

Not sure why we’re crashing out so hard right now. It’s nearly 6 days away and will take time to resolve. Besides if this storm goes north we rain! Frankly it being to our south is the best shot we get something frozen even if we aren’t the jack zone

This seems fine? No need to panic yet as it’s still a good depiction.

Yeah, I think next week is a far better setup percentage wise to get us some snow. I never liked this week because it was an all or nothing and we needed so many things to go right to get it to work. Meanwhile next week just needs a decent wave track which is something we could possibly get.

Ngl if I see this graphic again without significant snowfall from it imma crash out

It was honestly really impressive. Though only having ohill open for three days was rough for some people on Sunday and Monday. I just survived off my Saturday 6am wegmans bakery run

UVA canceled (all online) Monday and Tuesday with a 10am start yesterday and now it’s back to normal. They did an incredible job internally with ice removal but Charlottesville is a complete mess so a ton of professors are self canceling.

I like this map. If we can get the disturbance underneath us we don’t need to worry too much about the 18z gfs rainstorm in a cold pattern outcome. Instead we get an 18z ai gfs snowstorm for the whole forum.

Remarkably similar to last weeks setup. As a reminder to folks it took a truly Herculean amount of things to go wrong for that setup to “bust” as badly as it did.

In fairness not much to even pound What a mess. We still got time but an outcome like this isn't unlikely. Between this week and next week I'd say they're both events worth watching but def not worth any investment.

Now this is something that could work out for us! If it stays NS dominant then I have trouble thinking of a storm strong enough to be above a 2-4 (which isnt bad!) and not run into mixing problems. However, if we get a wave pass south of us we could actually get a 3-6 or even more if everything goes well. Still not an ideal setup so anything major is probably off the table - I mean look at that Great Lakes Low - but I want to see this trend continue.

I'm worried about the thermal conditions we'll see if the storm exists. The 6z Euro AI shows my worry pretty well when looking at the 850mb/wind chart It has the 850 low right over the great lakes and bringing in warm air from the Gulf. While we get some grace by our cold conditions leading in its not like we have a high to the north to save us. Just don't really know what the upside to this storm would be? The CMC H5 vort shows that maybe we could get a storm if we get the pass under us but otherwise I don't think a more negative trough would help us due to the thermal issues it would bring. Just not really enthused about the setup besides maybe a clipper like storm; but even that may just be a mix/rain

Listen its 18z run was hall of fame dogshit. Comparatively 0z is just a far eastern outlier!

HRRR went west!

Guys its almost time!

I think the ultimate healthiest way would be to completely avoid models/forecasts all together and just be pleasantly surprised when it happens. That and trips to WV. Though I agree its too late for us but we can still make it better by limiting exposure.

Is it just cope to say they will show up as we get closer in? I know that in some of these patterns its a thing where we only see threats show up at shorter lead times but don't know if that applies here.