SnowenOutThere

Please continue to make these posts, its annoying how when models move away from good solutions we suddenly switch to trying to ignore them instead of constantly post how good they look. Its nice to have an update as someone who isn't quite on the same analysis level of smarter posters, even if its not what we want to hear.

12/11/2023 1.3" Fun event, dumped snow from 3-4am, everything covered and looked pretty

I’m 3-5 miles east of IAD and recorded 1.3

Up to 1.25 + now, grass is completely covered. If @psuhoffman needs it I’ll cover the inch he needs.

Over an inch of snow here and main roads totally caved lol, worth staying up for. Huge flakes too

I’m more or less slightly east of the highest returns but can definitely say it’s pretty worth it. It’s been two whole years since I’ve seen snow like this. Wonder how long it’ll last

It just kept dropping, now at 32.5 degrees and heavy snow.

Just like that and rates picked up, temp dropped to 33.1 and it’s all snow. Out a bit further west than you so this might be the main show imby, snow already trying to stick to cars.

50 rain 50 very wet snow temp 33.6, with such a low temp it’s odd to see rain mixing so much.

35.6 and still just plain cold rain

36.0 and still plain rain near Reston.

You and me both, gotta be on the midnight study grindset cause I missed school last week to show up at a swim meet. So I’m in this for the long haul.

Your map sucks, I like mine a lot better

Sorry meant to specify 3k compared to its 12z run.

Looking at the vorticity and can't really understand why the output is worse, 18z appears (to me) more negatively tilted vs 12z. It also has a further south low and a larger area of snow on the backside of the front. Looks like there is almost a bit of a precip hole but not sure why that is (.5 qdf after changeover vs .7). I know its just one run but I want to understand the process better.

Whenever we get the cfs then we’ll be cooking with gas

And it hasn’t even stopped snowing at hour 60 lmao

As forum rules dictate: LOCK IT IN!

NAM somehow managed to up the ante

It doesn't even show snow until it hits Canada, I understand its a torched pattern but seeing rain into southern Canada on the backside of a nor easter just feels wrong. Like I said its just an example of something pointed out during last years winter. Enough individual events line up to cause trends, as winter goes on we (should) hopefully see less of this but if we don't then prob not a great sign. Doubt thats what will happen but just concerns me about the future in general because eventually storms like this will become the far more likely if not the norm.

Isn’t that slightly concerning on a broader scale for our winter events?

@psuhoffman I remember last year you talked a lot about how one of your main worries was how there was next to no frozen precip on the north sides of the low. Should we expect that to change in nino years? Using the recent gfs as an example of what you talked about last year. I know it’s December but still a little concerning to see no snow anywhere with a nor easter.

Gfs looks somewhat improved, gets snow closer to the metro areas than 6z

Only 15 days away! Still always nice to see these changes actually happen instead of getting can kicked, and would be nice to get something that week so hoping it continues to show up.