SnowenOutThere
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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
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When is the last big event (or even moderate) one like shown at the end of its run? I personally can't remember a single one but my non fuzzy memories of winter start post 2016.
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Im more partial to its end up run setup
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It looked a bit like a follow up wave than a cold chasing air event on the 12z gfs. Euro had that idea too but way too far north with the secondary low
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GFS is so close to something better but the trough goes negative tilt a little too late. Regardless we still get some snow showers and it was an improvement from 6z
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GFS out to hour 130ish seems to have a weaker and slightly farther north south wave but not sure how the NS will interact with it
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The thread is here
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In all fairness I’m not quite sure this is even close to the same “winter storm” we were looking at previously. This is an entirely different wave compared to the old runs that showed something around the 8th
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Euro run reminded me of when PSU talked about storms having next to no frozen on their northwestern side except for a small 50-100 mile width.
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BWI: 17.2" DCA: 9.1" IAD: 16.4" RIC: 4.5" Tiebreaker (SBY): 11.1"
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Ends with a messy sleet/ice storm thanks to a well placed high in Canada to give cold air damming while the 850s get toasted.
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I think that is the only word to really describe its whole evolution. Has the southern energy finally eject but NS stuff keeps trying to phase or push it around?
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Latest GFS with yet another completely different evolution for the potential 8th storm. NS is completely absent while the southern energy looks mildly better than its 0z run
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GFS looks like it’ll come in looking more like it’s past 6z and 0z run than 12/18z. Better NS shortwave and less stuck southern disturbance
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Its funny in a sort of Sisyphusian "It will never snow again" ironic way.
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GFS just dished up the funniest possible outcome for the 12th window
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Good test subject on if we can make a sacrificial thread and then revive it with a second one this year
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Digital Snow Thread Winter 2024-2025
SnowenOutThere replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
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GFS shows a nice hit right in the second window people have been mentioning.
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Does seem to be digging out west maybe a bit more
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It honestly was shocking but really hammered home what posters like PSU have said about how important surface level temps are in marginal storms. The parking lot was 33 degrees which just wasn’t cold enough compared to even 500ft higher where it had to be comfortably below freezing. Sad to think about what this may mean for our snowfall in future marginal cases but can see why PSU (and others, he just articulates it well) gets so irritated by the storms that could’ve been if it wasn’t 1-2 degrees too warm now.
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I hiked between 1 and 4pm and it was pouring snow the whole time, only difference is that at the lower elevations it didn't stick. First picture is around 800ish feet, second is 1100 feet and the third is 1600ft, very clear example of how important temps are in marginal situations.
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Went on a hike to bobs hill (1755ft) from a base of 820ft, great hike would highly recommended felt like a real snow storm with wind and everything once I got past cat rock. The elevation difference was crazy, went from elevated surfaces with some snow then around 1000ft it switched to several inches and accumulating, at the top there had to be around 4-6inches.
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Just got to the base of catoctin park and am planning to hike up to around 1700ft, the microclimate difference is already crazy. Went from no snow on the group near Thurmont to a coating on everything
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Flakes near Reston, getting read to head out to the Catoctins
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Do you have any idea where the best place to go in the Catoctins would be today? I was looking around the actual peak or bobs hill at 1741ft
