WXNewton

Staying in Foscoe, started ripping fat flakes about 5:15.

12z Para GFS trying to bring the goods to western NC

Absolutely pouring sleet here out of that heaviest band in Catawba County. Some fat flakes mixed in too.

60/40 Sleet/snow now

light snow in Newton

Nice CAD sig on 12z Euro but just not showing much cold. That low above Minnesota looks like its really hurting the cold air from being pulled into the system.  This thing will jump around for a couple of days but at least the storm still there.

Only looked at EPS on tropicaltidbits, there is a definite lowering of heights in the NE. Looks like a step in the right direction to me.

3 minutes ago, WSNC said:

12z RGEM, 12z Canadian, 12z 12km NAM, and 12z GFS para all show it. 

in-situ CAD can be sneaky little events for a couple of hours before warm air overtakes. If moisture does come in and temps dip below 32 Monday morning, I could see bridges and over passes being tricky right around rush hour. Tomorrow morning and Sunday morning lows will really cool the ground surfaces down.

one thing to watch for is around day break on Monday if you live north of 85 around 77 and I40 models are showing some light precip with temps near freezing. 

12z GFS says hello VA, Para GFS I am staying suppressed. I can live with this, ensembles are the way to go for the next 3-4 days. 

I am ready, let's do this thing play by play starting at 11-1:30 today. I am pretty sure the UKMET will save us and just wait until this storm gets into the NAM time-frame and don't forget about the RGEM, you know it's only going to be about 35 degrees colder than the rest of the models. 

I am not going to lie, this last storm really took a toll on my mental health lol! I am going to keep this potential on my radar, but I don't think I can check every model run for the next couple days. I may wait until Mon-Tuesday and if it has legs at that point I'll be sucked right back in like a hoover vacuum. Looking at 6z GEFS it did gain some ensemble support.

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Lol , GFS showing a 16-24" Snowstorm for NC and VA next Friday/Saturday 

book it! The para has been showing something off and on for a couple days now. 

We have some decent build up in the trees in and around Newton/Conover.

31.4 Light freezing drizzle in Newton. Can hear the branches when the wind blows. The car is icy all over.

Brad P. in house model has dropped temps back some over I 40 corridor this latest run. Hickory-Statesville 29-30 degrees.

00z GFS says hold my beer and throws down some big ZR totals! Probably doesn't matter at this point what it shows. Really just filled in the lee side more than 18z.

The wind has really picked up in Newton probably 10-12 mph NNE

7 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

He basically said this warm nose is gonna be so strong it warms most to 33 but looking at the “Futurecast” it still had Iredell/Rowan/Catawba at 30-32 for a good chunk so I almost think he’s more so talking about CLT immediate 

There are several stations in N.Catawba already reading 31.2-31.8. Clouds are starting to roll in so I expect that to jump up some in the next hour. 5-7 mph stiff NNE wind.

Just now, BooneWX said:

Brad P cutting totals 

What to? So funny, was talking about the models running too warm today and now said the trend was to warm us up more. LOL!!

Hard to believe the radar looks like it does and the NAM shows not much precip. 

Looks like more sleet further south on 00z NAM, anyone have a map?

Newton 34.5/26

Newton 36/27

2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Brad Panovich said he is very concerned that the modelling is underestimating the depth of cold air. 

Down in Catawba Valley the NE wind does a particular bite to it today.