WXNewton

5 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

subtle ticks...

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I'd have to go back and look but just glancing out that, looks very similar to where the Christmas storm of 2010 rolled through the 4 corners region.

Thought I saw a snowflake in Newton, but could just be my eyes playing tricks on me from staying up all night watching the models. 

12z FV3 looks nice. 

I like the look of precip starting to streak through the ATL area. I know this is probably not hitting the ground but it does seem to be building in intensity. No model has that moisture that far north. Maybe something to watch for light snow to breakout in parts of WNC later this afternoon. 

Timing and moisture placement by GFS, NAM, RGEM, Canadian @hr 72, pretty good agreement compared to everything else we've seen today. 

GFS trending further west over the past 3 runs. We had a significant winter storm across much of the state on Jan 17, 2018 that reminds me of this setup. Seemed like the GFS trended further west with the moisture each run right up until go time and the NAM captured a much more organized system before the globals caught on. https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=627

18 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Not even close honestly. The chances for western half of the state to see anything out of this are quickly dwindling, I don’t care what the euro says. When every other model is showing eastern storm and SE VA storm I don’t see all of them being that wrong. The last storm never had us in the west missing everything and down east getting the storm. It was always a foothills/Mtn storm on the models from a 7-9 days out, the earlier models just included the eastern part of the state getting in on it too. This is different.

I wouldn't say our chances are quickly dwindling, GEFS mean has went from just over 2" last night to over 4" at 12z today. I think this thing has a ways to go before it is written off for anyone.  

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Anyway you slice the models today:

1) front passes Thursday with rain, possibly mixing with snow at end 

2) relative lull Friday morning with front stalled off coast but precip builds back into cold air with wintry mix breaking out

3) some form of coastal development takes place Friday. More Amped = more precip, further north and west precipitation, stronger warm nose, better for upstate, Triad, Virginia. Less amped = less precipitation, less coverage away from coast, less ice threat east

4) ALL MODELING IS COLD AT SURFACE. Most of NC and a lot of SC will stay below freezing through the event 

In my opinion, blend the models as seen now and you end up with an expansive area of sleet/snow with light to moderate accumulation, a strip of pure snow but less moisture NW of there, and an area that needs to be watched for freezing rain from the SC midlands to the NC coastal plain. Many more details but that’s my oversimplified take on modeling today 

This^^ absolutely the best way to summarize things, state what we know and allow models to sort through these moving parts. Everything will become more clear tomorrow and tomorrow night. Also ICON looked to be more in the EURO, NAM camp.

18z GFS clearly backing up moisture towards the NW when trended several runs @ hr 78. Cannot post the GIF for some reason, but there is definitely more moisture each run. If that trend continues I would picture it to look similar to the Canadian and Euro. 

70/30 Sleet/Snow in Newton

About 4" now in Newton, absolutely pouring right now. 22.8/21

25/21 in Newton approaching an inch now. 

30.8/21 in Newton, Snow sticking to the deck and house tops are white. Had a wind gust of 17 mph about 5 mins ago.

Flurries in Newton 32.4/19

Just now, NEGa said:

Nice! I thought about sleeping a bit but for once I am staying up lol. This could be a really good storm. 
 

its 31 here and almost an inch. The last couple of min the wind really seems to be picking up. Some surprisingly big gusts too. 

Don't sleep now, this is what we have been waiting for!

33/22 Here in Newton, just stepped outside and wind has really picked up. Dropped 1.5 degrees in the past 30 mins. Radar returns look great to the south.

1 hour ago, MillerA said:

I am now down to 1 to 2 inches, lol. 

Newton, nc

 

 

I am in Newton too, I think that's a low call. That initial push should drop several inches according to the hrr, I would be shocked if we changed that quick. That's some heavy moisture coming and we could easily pick up that amount in 1-2 hours. Hoping for a few more inches than forecasted above^

18 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Brad P just put out his final call maps. Really backed off totals for foothills. 2-4” for most of the foothills and 4-6” for immediate escarpment. I’m hoping latest GFS busts his forecast. Major major let down if the foothills do indeed get 2-4”

Through the Catawba Valley this map doesn't even come close to matching the liquid equivalent that most models are showing. His freezing rain map only has .05"-.15" of freezing rain. This would only capture about .5-.75 inches of precip falling to match these totals. 

Most models seem to be dropping anywhere from 1.25-1.5" of precip across much of the piedmont to the mountains. Most of this falling in the low-mid 20s will make for a travel nightmare regardless on whether the precip is all Snow, Sleet, or Freezing Rain. It's been a long time since we've seen a wedge this stout and having precip amounts being modeled at well over an inch. I think this thing means business and I am looking forward to watching it all unfold from just a pure weather enthusiast's perspective. 

40/28 in Newton, 4-7 mph wind out of the NE

Several models seem to be picking up on a potential finger of moisture developing Saturday morning and throughout the day. I think that's something to keep an eye on, usually these big storms have that feature a half day or so before the main event. Would also keep Saturday's high temps on the lower side.  

10 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Also lines up better with Euro/EPS/UK Met.

I've seen the GFS OP do this many times in the 3-4 day range where it wants to run the low right through the heart of the wedge. I believe like many times before as we get closer it will correct this and show more of a smoother rotation down and round the bottom boundary of the wedge as depicted by the Euro/EPS. Also I expect the Nam to show some funky outputs over the next day or two. I would stick with Ensembles at this point and would recommend using caution when taking any OP run for face value, especially when the low pressure placement and movement doesn't seem realistic. 

Good 8" now in Foscoe, turnover happened about 5:15.

Thundersnow about 10mins ago off hwy 105. 

Guessing 3.5-4" in Foscoe. Probably 2-3" fell in the past hour.