WXNewton

Just now, BullCityWx said:

We're right at 33 here as well. It does fall in the middle of the night so that is always helpful.

Maybe we will see the models settle somewhere between the Nam and Euro which is less amped for the moment. It's a delicate balance because I feel like we need the better rates and heavier moisture to get some snow, but that's always going to bring some warmer air in too. 

4 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I think we've got something here for Saturday night into Sunday on the 12Z NAM...

Yeah me too, looks similar to the para GFS this run with the placement of snow and rain line. 

Nam definitely looking more like a storm now.

Can you post map?

12Z Nam trending stronger with the upper energy entering the US. Lets see where this run goes...

4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

True but the latest Para actually trended more northwest/less with the snow on Sunday.  Need to see the 12Z run to see if that trend continues.  

I agree, the NW trend is always real! I thought the storm as a whole looked more organized and stronger this run which is probably why you see the NW movement. Totals went up in my area but definitely closer to the rain line.

You can see the upper level energy trending stronger and trying to dig harder in NE Arkansas and Western Tennessee this run.  

I feel like the models are trending better for Sunday. The Para Gfs that first latched onto the Jan 28th snow might lead the trend this time. I think today we will start to see the models make corrections NW and more precipitation over spreading the region. 

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro is super close to a good storm here Saturday night. Just barely too warm 

Yeah at hr 114 that low is in a good spot tracking across the gulf coast. You would think with a track similar to this our area would be closer to getting a good storm. I think there's some room for this to trend better for us.

12z GFS trending wetter and more organized for Sunday.

00z GFS with another trend in the right direction for next weekend. 

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Sorry yall. My multiple winter storm warnings this year with only wet grass to show for it, is starting to make me lose my mind. I don’t mean to sound so pessimistic. Not used to taking so many L’s in western NC. Give me a few days and I’ll be back on the wagon!

I am right there with you in Catawba County. Left the house early this morning and saw some good snow around NC/VA line. Would love to watch it at home, but sometimes weather nuts have to follow the storm!

Snowing in Newton

FWIW- 18z GFS did trend freezing rain further south.

Just now, Upstate Tiger said:

Snowing pretty hard in Cherryville. 39/21

That's good to hear, heading my way in Newton over the next hour. 

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Pretty much every model I have seen so far tonight is trending slightly warmer

RGEM seemed to be slightly cooler than 18z.

Nam 3km appears to be coming in a tad colder for some of the foothills and NW Piedmont.

Not sure about the accuracy of these short range models but freezing rain is pretty far south. 

Canadian with another slight push south with the wedge. Little more pronounced and temps colder this run.

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

UK is a nice hit 

You can clearly see the finger wedge settled into place. Would like to see the wedge more rounded out at the base with a push further south. Seems like the confluence over NE is causing more of ENE wind v.s. NNE wind.

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z CMC is a significant winter storm for northern NC, southern va, Central va

Also hinting at a possible deform band swinging through on Monday. I know some other guidance has shown that possibility as well. 

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Does anyone know what the RGEM’s bias is? I thought it generally ran a little cold if anything but I don’t recall it being a southern outlier. Big difference on 0z run. Way south!

The one thing I notice is temps are running 7-8 degrees colder on average for the low on Saturday compared to most of the other models. 

First post on this forum, you can see the low trending to the south and west some each run as well as the wedge building in and becoming more pronounced.