WXNewton

19 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Running out of time. Still not making progress up this way. Just don't see it being more than a novelty event 

Heavy s ow falling in Newton! Temp 35 on the car.

Snow mixing in now in Newton.

Sounding for hickory from hrr in the heaviest precip, is this an all snow sounding or more sleet?

improvements on RGEM for foothills and NW Piedmont. 

3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Ticking NW each run 

Here was 12z for comparison, did tick nw some but manly the band just produced heavier rates on this run and was more wide spread. 

13z hrr

13 minutes ago, Snow haven said:

Oh that will change!! Trends were good for the first part of the week being the coldest air of the last 3 years...you see how that worked out! 

Of course it's going to change, no one here has the answers to what the upcoming pattern will bring. At this point following the ensembles is the way to go, but that will drive you crazy because it seems like the GFS and Euro always do the opposite of each other lol. I am right there with you it's coming, oh it will be here, and the next thing you know we are still looking 7- 10 days out. 

4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

If this trend were to continue the big dogs would come back.....

 

Good trends on 06 GEFS with more wedging later next week.

23 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

The hrrr keeps my snowball hopes alive 

The 12z brought in a good thump.

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Help me GFS kenobi. You're our only hope. 

Better run for Catawba and Alexander counties.

The footprint of snow lines up pretty well when comparing the NAM and RGEM. The Nam is more robost with the snow totals from N.NC through VA. One big difference is the RGEM is showing heavier totals in the upstate. That heavier totals in the upstate also line up with the greater accumulations that were show on the RAP model earlier. 

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

Lol...850's are below freezing and 925 above.  It's not freezing rain here!

Something about that map just looks off, kind of looks like my 2 year old started coloring on it.

improvements with precip but looks warm, it's a delicate balance.

Low back over gulf this run, but man that thing looks ragged!

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

NAM is running a bit warmer than 18Z already 

hr 21 that low over Arkansas is 3 mb weaker than 18z maybe that will help.

During the height of the precip it's colder too. 

How did the HRRR do on the upper level storm that went down east a week or so ago?

Just now, SnowDawg said:

Tropical Tidbits got a little confused about where to put the surface low on the HRRR lolJoking aside though it keeps the primary along the Gulf a lot better than it did at 18z.

Like throwing a dart blind folded.

Just now, PantherJustin said:

That does look better for CLT metro atleast lol 

Yes much improved over 18z

1 minute ago, PantherJustin said:

That just doesn’t make any sense and I’m not even trying to be a weenie. If it does someone explain how 

Just a few hours later it's snowing good though and the run looks better than 18z.

Nothing like a good ole 50+ degree snowstorm, the latest hrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr is running a little on the warm side. 

I don't know much about the ICON, but that sucker has been rock stead on its output, it's either really right or really wrong!

Still a pretty big difference between RGEM and 12km NAM, here's hr 36 and hr 39.

The High over the NE built in a touch further south this run compared to 12z. Just small details at this point not really much more to go off of. 

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Looks like the Euro, lighter precip, more in the TN valley yet again 

Actually trended a here further south and looked a little weaker.