WXNewton

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Road temps are definitely not mild here. It was 18 last night and barely got above freezing in shady areas. Its 25 now already. 

All models are trending wetter tonight and real time temps seem to be running a little cooler than most models are showing.

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Would be a travel nightmare 

Listened to Brad P's video today and he basically said roads would have zero issues that road temps were running mild! People hear that on the news and don't think anything else about it until they are sliding sideways on a bridge. 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

NAM coming in much juicier for western areas, could be very slick tomorrow morning. 

Really looking more like the RGEM has been showing for a day or two now.

Latest RAP model shows several hours of light freezing rain tomorrow morning. Temps around 31, already sitting at 30.5 in Newton and clear skies, any precip could cause some issues. Also hit a low of 21 this morning so the ground is cold. 

I really think around day break tomorrow there could be issues around the I77-I40 corridor. I know it's not looking like much but with temps as could as they were this morning and the lastest hrrr showing temps right around 30-31 even the lightest amounts of drizzle/sleet could cause issues on bridges and overpasses. To me this a tricky situation because even the slightest amount of ice can catch people off guard especially when the news says expect zero issues on the roadways. 

25 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Lol GFS is us and EURO is Guy she told you not to worry about 

I'll be Nam'ed

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

That would actually be funny to me cause Brad Panovich this morning pretty much Said it just isn't much there.

Yep, typically if he calls for it up in Catawba County I tend not to expect much and when he calls it off look out for the big dog. Moved us to 1-2" on the Jan 15th storm and wound up with 6-7" of snow/sleet.

8 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Trend is clear on all guidance so far today, flatter and more suppressed. Rare or not, the suppression train continues. Outside of the initial storm in January, this pattern has been a constant tease for those on the west side of the forum, only for the models to pull the rug inside 5 days and end up with nothing but virga.

Yeah not a good sign for those of us back to the west, esp when op run and ENS start to zero in together or atleast come closer together. Also the 18z EURO lines up pretty well with the GEFS and UKMET tonight. 

00z UKMET-painting the heaviest totals in the same spot as the GEFS.

The op and the ENS are coming closer together on that run v.s. 18z run. Further east looking better right now. 

00z ICON is still suppressed, but shows signs of the upper level trying to pop some precip in the western part of the state. 

Congrats upstate SC that run and east of 85, def. trended more suppressed south and east. Earlier on in the run upper level went neutral faster but actually went negative later than 18z did. 18z map on the bottom, trend towards Euro that run. This has been the trend for 2 weeks now. 

00z GFS cutting upper level low even earlier this run @ hr 69 its already cutoff as it's rolling through TX. Trough axis going more neutral earlier too, might be a good run. 

hr 84 on NAM has the same bowling ball upper level low as GFS digging through N. Louisiana and S. Arkansas. If that run would continue I think it would bring some good energy under the mountains. 

18z GFS tracks the upper level low very similar to the March 1st 2009 storm that really hammered Western NC, especially from SBY-HKY-GSO. If that trends continues the upper-level low could become the main show. These type of events can leave some with very little while just a few miles away others really cash in. Like others have mentioned on here, small adjustments in how all this energy interacts is going to play havoc on the models for a few days.  

17 here in Newton around 7:30-8 this morning. 

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Any confirmation for snow reports near Hickory?

 

Mixing in with the rain 50/50 here in Newton.

Brighter band in Catawba County is turning to snow.

The FV3 is laying the smack down with that band over Catawba, Lincoln, and Gaston Counties.

Anyone have 6z Euro, curious to see if it had same axis of snow in Piedmont?

So Hrrr, Rap, 3km Nam, Euro all showing heaviest snow axis running up and down basically I77. I'd say that area right now is looking to have the best shot for several inches. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

RAP Model also showing similar setup to Hrrr with meso low and banding.

For what is worth the 6z HRRR showed a very similar setup as Euro with rotating a band of moisture through the Foothills and NW Piedmont into Upstate SC. It too is trying to pop a low under the foot of the mountains. I know it's the HRRR at long range but definitely something to keep an eye on for folks around 77 and 85 corridor.

19 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Ugh.  Such a difference in possible outcomes here in the lee.  12K NAM and RGEM show nothing just to the east of the foothills.  ICON, FV3, 3KNAM, and earlier runs of the GFS show a little precip maximum there.  So, could get completely blanked here in Hickory or could get a couple of decent inches.  Like always, never really know until it’s “Go time”.

I am right here with you! You know from being in this area if we get a meso low to form just under the mountains into the upstate we will be in business. The models have a very hard time depicting that small scale feature and if it happens it can wreck a forecast in a heartbeat. I remember the Jan storm of 2003 and watching Eric Thomas break in with upgraded winter storm warnings and upping our advisory totals from 2-3" to 6-10". Also remember the old weather channel radar just pivot on top of the foothills and piedmont and basically snow all night. 

1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

Upper low that became vertically stacked 

In Catawba County for that one! One of my all time favorite snowstorms. Rain/sleet mix all day at 34-37 degrees, then around 6:30 p.m. the bowling ball rolled through. Went to heavy snow and this was the first time I got to experience thunder and lightning. Moisture pulled out about 11 p.m. and trees were bent to the ground with a very heavy 8-10". That storm was amazing and one of the reasons I love tracking winter weather! Also remember a deform band rotating through Catawba County when I lived in Sherrills Ford along about 2012-2013. Showed for 1.5 hours and measured 3-4". I remember the flakes were so big that traffic stopped in the middle of Sherrills Ford Rd and people were getting out of their cars to watch it.