WXNewton

So now we have the ICON, Canadian, RGEM all showing a prolonged ice storm with the wedge holding in the CAD region for the entire storm. The NAM is still a major storm for many but moisture looks less, GFS is a major ice storm but not as far south as other guidance as well as the EURO. In my opinion models will continue to get a better handle on the wedge as today and tomorrow storm leaves the region. There is a ton of cold air to work with and timing looks to be setting up nicely as the high pressure system slides right into a favorable spot and strengths before the moisture flows into our region. Global models have been trending colder for this storm, but I think the mesoscale models will lead the way starting today and tomorrow. I think the biggest takeaway from this setup would be that all models are in agreement of a 1036-1038 high sitting in a favorable spot that historically produces ice storms in VA, NC and even upstate SC. The ingredients are there for a major ice storm over a greater area compared to Saturday's system.

00z Nam also showing the wedge on Thursday. Not a bad look, 1038ish high over Vermont/NH. Would think temps would be colder than shown in that setup.

18z ICON just laid the smack down for freezing rain on Thursday. Would be a devastating ice storm for many if that model is even remotely close.

Nam showing some Freezing Rain along the Escarpment Tuesday morning.

Looks like a scene out of a movie.

Yep got to 32 even at one point, man the radar looks good, almost has the shape of a snowstorm to it.

00z Canadian has a lot freezing rain this run for much of the state even gets HKY down to 30. Seems a little too cold though.

Already 32.9/31.6 here, I know that's lower than any model had us at this point. Also RGEM really moved freezing rain totals south.

Yeah seeing a lot of temps around freezing already just North of Statesville, a degree or two in this setup could be a huge deal!

Yeah definitely a threat to pay attention to, hopefully Monday's storm will help the trough axis swing more to the east.

That looks like it's going to get nasty! Catawba county getting closer each run. 34.4 here.

Yep 32.6 here in Newton, just not our year.

Nam has freezing rain now all the way into Catawba County.

I wanted to post that GIFs are kind of my specialty, but for some reason all of my files are too large to upload.

18z para trended with more freezing rain for Tuesday storm, actually made a big leap south with ice.

Come on NAM!! I wouldn't at all be shocked for it to suck us all back in.

Thunder popping in Catawba County, just shook the whole house.

Interesting that 12z ICON shows main low tracking across the gulf again and not cutting on us. The wedge didn't build in quick enough, but this shows models still have some figuring out to do.

That's what I was saying last night, the RGEM shows more of a traditional CAD look back here in NW Piedmont and foothills.

You would think in this setup with the wedge building in as the precip moves in from the south that most places would stay all freezing rain once they get locked in. I am not sure I buy any warming up besides the latent heat released.

RGEM does the same thing as the NAM and builds the wedge back in later in the day.

RGEM looked more like your typical wedge with colder temps back in the NW Piedmont compared to the NAM that was more east based wedge.

During his 5 o'clock news and yes he had a couple videos on FB too.

Also saw Brad P. in house model tonight and it had almost all of NC in Freezing rain and dropped temps in HKY to 31. It was definitely interesting and seems like other guidance is not too far off from what he was showing. He also seemed a little more excited about a legit ice threat.

Just makes me wonder about Mon/Tuesday storm after watching the trends today. Do we see the same thing happen with that storm as we get closer with the wedge showing up a little stronger each run and pushing deeper to the south?