WXNewton
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SREF plumes for Hickory are a little over 2". I expect an advisory for 1-2 here with maybe 1/2" of sleet and honestly that would be great if we could pull that off.
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NAM 12 KM, NAM 3KM and 12z RGEM
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GFS looking a lot better too.
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You are right, not too far off from each other with precip placement and type of precip.
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Yeah it's a middle solution between the GFS and the RGEM.
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Increased totals in the central part of NC. Good trends on 00z GFS, the snow seems to be covering a greater portion of the state and the general 1-3" is covering a greater area.
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Increased totals in the central part of NC.
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Yeah and seems like it runs the coldest of all the models. During the last potential ice storm it had major accumulations for me and as it got close to go time it lost the freezing rain theory.
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Yeah crazy the difference between Nam and RGEM. Mountains and Virginia go from big storm to basically nothing... Model mayhem, that's why it's so hard to write anything in stone more than a day or two out.
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Temps are a little colder as well.
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Going to be a better run for the upstate, GA, and WNC (foothills and NW Piedmont) .
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RGEM coming in further south and east.
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Yeah me too, I had a feeling the Nam might settle down a little bit. The 12km had more of a snow hole around area, not sure what that's about but it almost looked like the moisture shifted as the low moved from the gulf to Atlantic coast. That definitely hurt us that run.
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3km trended a little better for foothills than 18z.
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Nam 3km Trended further south with frozen precip and 850s trended much further south too.
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Pretty big shift south with precip.
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Small shift south with 540 line at hr 42. Surface temps running several degrees warmer along 40.
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Gave me goosebumps looking at this picture. I remember the mattresses in our house froze. That was a scary storm, I didn't sleep for 2 nights because of all the pine trees popping around the house. My dad worked for the DOT and he didn't come home for days.
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Somebody needs to put the brakes on this low pressure, I mean NW trend but dang couple hundred miles if that keeps up.
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They look good to me
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Running a little colder too.
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I just thought the same thing! Feb 2, 1996 was the worst ice storm I remember in Catawba County. Trees popped all night long was without power for 8-9 days and temps got down near zero a day or 2 after the storm and had several inches of snow on the very end. That was the storm that had me hooked on winter weather.
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If we get that much ice and these temps come in afterwards it would be devastating.
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GFS para showing significant icing as well.
