WXNewton

12z Euro has trended much further south and now has some icing back into the MTNs, Ashe, Watauga counties. Looks like this could come further south as we get closer.

I agree, I just did a trend on the surface temps on the Euro AI run and the northern progression of temps at or below 32 seem to hold steady (roughly) in the same counties as the previous run. It's has def. trended warmer, but at least that trend has slowed down a lot on the last run when compared to the previous runs. I have observed the CAD in the heart of Catawba County for many years, and if a high pressure gets somewhat locked in, I know for a fact it is almost always colder than what the models show. It never fails, the short range models will tend to lock in the cold air deeper and longer usually in the last 12-18 hours before an event. I think this wedge could be modeled a little stronger over the NW Piedmont and Southern Foothills as time goes on.

Starting to come in alignment with ensembles, I think this storm is presenting itself early where the bulk of the frozen will be.

12 GFS ENS. look to be headed in the right direction, snowfall starting to align more with your I85 line and def. further south than 06z and 00Z.

Ensembles actually had accumulating snow a little further south than 00z though. Have to look more at ensembles at this range than single model runs. 00z Canadian Ensembles also has accumulating snow for much of the state.

Looks like 00z euro ensembles are going to slightly increase snowfall totals over most of the area when compared to 12z. Can't load map right now but definitely looks like a small increase.

GFS hangs the high pressure up in southern central Canada for days and days and really never pushes south or east, seems odd.

How many inches does the Dark Blue rep?

Yeah, especially the AIFS, which almost has Miller A look to it. Looks like several more waves of energy behind the first part on GFS. I would expect some major back and forth the rest of this week to see how the models will key on all that energy and the overall evolution of each piece. I think the key will be where that frontal boundary ends up and if the high can get locked in a little longer in the NE.

GFS coming in with a nasty ice storm, looks like a prolonged period of freezing rain from roughly N of 40 and I 85.

Euro, Gfs and Canadian Ens are showing some potential in the Feb 7-11 timeframe.

Looks like Monday's fast moving system is trending a little snowier along the northern edge on the GFS.

12z CMC still has a nasty ice storm for the cad region, again timing would have to be perfect high is retreating. Verbatim temps in mid 20s in the heart of the CAD slowly warming to around 31-32 by the end of the storm.

Yeah was just looking at ensembles, on both GFS and Euro have cold enough air possible on Friday/Sat timeframe with moisture close by. Wedge seems to break down by Sunday as bulk of moisture moves in. I think you definitely hit the nail on the head, it's always about timing and this looks to be a shot where the cold is retreating as moisture moves in. Something to keep an eye on, but I would say the chances have probably decreased for significant ice.

As a kid, I always remember the 96 ICE Storm (Feb 2nd-3rd) that struck the Catawba Valley area. Without power for almost ten days and lows near zero several mornings after the storm. I still remember listening to the trees pop all night long and then still popping days after. Definitely one of the scariest but also extreme/exciting weather events that peaked my interest in keeping up with the weather. That storm was loaded with moisture, and was a recipe for disaster.

12z CMC has some ice too.

Inlaws sent these pictures from Destin FL.

It was kind of painful, I have to admit.

Check out this camera at Nags Head, looks like Blizzard conditions. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/

Flurries in Newton!

Flurries in Newton!

My in-laws go to Florida every year to get away from the cold and snow. They are camp host in Destin at Topsail State Park. I'll post pictures as they send them to me, looks like they ar about to pick up those heavy bands coming out of Louisiana.

Fv3 is back further north and west this run too.

Fv3 is back further north and west this run.

WWA now up to Mecklenburg County and the Lake Norman area, I expect them to be extended even more after 12z guidance.