WXNewton

28.4 this morning, forgot to unhook the water hose and ran outside at 4 am luckily before we had any issues.

March weather is wild! Had a darn near flood come through about 45 mins ago lightning and thunder, temps have dropped 17 degrees here since 6:30 am.

Cousin in Todd said they just switched over.

Looks like snow falling at the Boone Lake cam. https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/boone-lake/

Latest HRRR has definitely beefed up since 12z. Watauga, Ashe/Allegheny counties, verbatim heavy snow. 10am-1pm timeframe.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/massachusetts/provincetown/?cam=capecodbay

This webcam is absolutely insane, basically down to only seeing the stop sign now lol!

Wow, that's amazing and kind of scary at the same time. Unbelievable, what an extreme situation.

00z HRRR has about 1" of precip falling between 3am-8am. Should be heaviest rates during those hours. I would expect 9" -10" piling up during that 5 hr stretch.

Checking in from NC...anyone have a good webcam link to watch?

The RAP model pretty much shows the stall start to happen right when the pressure begins to significantly bomb out. Here's a 9 hr loop of virtually very little to no movement from about 8 pm tomorrow night until 5 am Monday morning.

For real, it makes you really question how most of these folks live like sheep believing everything, but the real data and the facts.

It is frustrating to dedicate hours and hours into model runs each day leading up to the storm and realizing what is about to take place and then some random person who watched the 6 o'clock news yesterday argues with you on whether it's going to be a storm or not. I am always fascinated at the average person's understanding of the weather or lack there of!

The explosion on the HRRR is simply amazing...

EPS still playing catch-up...looks like totals will keep bumping up until about go-time.

NBM

12z NAM Kurchea

NAM 3km is cranking!!! Man what a monster!

RAP...and more to come...

Checking in from the SE forum! I know it's the long range RAP model, but what a beautiful thing to look at. I feel like it did very well with our snow at the first of the month!

Following from the southeast forum. True weather weenie here pulling for you guys! Heck I've been losing sleep on this one just as much as I would if NC was in the bullseye! GFS might bring this one home, sure looks like this one will be a fun one to ride out. I hope one day to catch a big Nor'Easter. I'll definitely stay tune to see some observations! Pumped up from a 650 miles away!! I will say the models struggled handing the phase and the ULL for our NC snowstorm a few weeks ago, it was about 36 hrs out before they had a good handle on it. RAP and HRRR was dead on under 12-16 hrs out.

I kept track of QPF out put from all models for several days before the storm for MBY HKY. 2-3 days out GFS output ranged in the .65"-.8" range and GEFS was consistently around the .5"-.55" range. The Euro was consistently around the .35-.45" range and the EPS was around .45" -.5" range. We wound up receiving about .52-.54" of precip. Both AI models nailed the .7-.8" totals near and around CLT to Salisbury. I think general rule of thumb you stick with ensembles and blend those together and you will get a pretty accurate look at what's going to happen starting in the next 12 to 24 hours.

I feel like the GFS slowed backed the moisture up to the West as we got closer to the event, Euro did the best at showing the dry slot over Raleigh first and the heavier snow that fell through the upstate it picked up on that first. The Nam was all over the place and the GFS AI and Euro AI did the best at identifying the heaviest totals near CLT-Salisbury area. With in 18hrs the RAP and HRRR pretty much held course with the future radar, but a blend of GEFS and EPS is the way to go in my opinion and cut everything back a little bit with daytime snow in late Feb. It will be interesting to see how it plays out!

Boys, we just got NAM'ed for Sunday. Get your shovels ready!

EPS cut back too, still just a hair over an inch though. 6z EPS-12z EPS