Northof78
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Everything posted by Northof78
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Is that the warmest panel? -
Agreed, extremely similar to this storm with a ~ 30-50 mile shift north...
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Any mixing issues seem to be due to progged dryslot, lack of lift, very light precip...not overall warming
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NAM quite cold, still odd precip shield, but 850s dont get above 0F down to Toms River area...and I have to say with this strong of a block/confluence, the heaviest precip that far from the low seens suspect to me
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Not much to speak of N of the NJ/NY line...even north of Rt.80 QPF drops off quickly...
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RGEM actually has all of LI over a foot, just a weird dry slot over the city...
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1.5” to 2.0” for most of the region....
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Looks like 12” to 18” area wide...
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850s at -6 or -7, maybe somewhere you can get some sleet from intensity...but overall hell of a run
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NAM way south/colder and a bomb for many...
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GFS really squashes northern precip shield, really nice hit for the metro...
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NAM probably with ratios, moved roughly in line with other models with the colder/east shift. Probably shows 12" or so for most of the region.
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NAM well S/E and much colder...not sure on QPF yet
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Now every model is in almost perfect agreement for 12" - 18" almost area wide...very nice
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This is the time when you expect all models to converge (2- 2.5 days), and we are seeing just that....
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I think all models (GFS, EURO, CMC, RGEM, [NAM sortive]) basically narrowing in on a 12-18" storm from C NJ/LI/Metro northward for about 50-75 miles. However yes, the confluence is becoming more pronounced on the northern edge....
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Guessing GFS is roughly 12" to 18" area-wide?
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RGEM & GFS (to an extent the NAM) now in agreement for a MECS nearly area wide, there is a growing concensus of a sharp northern gradient and a pretty 'extreme' confluence cutoff...but likely mostly north of our subforum.
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NAM is colder and further S/E, but still a very odd solution overall without much precip really anywhere (actually surpressed with northern extent of precip)....would lean heavily away from NAM and towards CMC/Euro combo with a touch of GFS
