Ephesians2

NAM isn't going to get it done. Not closing off and turning negative in time. It's a bit of a step back from 18z. I'd trust the Euro over the NAM at this range any time though, especially at 500mb.

Stolen from the Southeast Forum:

still a lot of uncertainty with respect to the placement of the low will need to see how this plays out, but I genuinely think there's an outside chance those numbers we are currently seeing over NC end up over Richmond (of course there is also a higher than usual chance of a total fail)

not only that, ULL driven snow can have high ratios. you can have mid ratios with very cold temperatures. (our ratios with the front end of this last storm were pretty bad) BUT if you get snow from the ULL pass or the back end of a coastal it can promote high ratio snow I verified 17:1 ratios with the ULL from the Feb 19-20 storm

WPC seems to be assuming a bit of a north trend

I'll be sweating that cutoff here. I hope NC does well, but I also hope I don't get fringed twice in a row

at 78h on the 18z GFS: more progressive and south of 12z clear step back

AIGFS drier and east of 12z

it sure would be funny if the GFS and Euro switched places again not saying that will happen of course

At 42h the GFS looks east of 12z at 500mb...

very consistent

ICON isn't going to be quite as atrocious lol

PNA ridge just a little bit east of ideal. it really is unfortunate how we have to get pretty much everything right to get snow

if the 500mb low was 50-100 miles north it would be warning level snow for everyone in this thread. I think we can get these types of adjustments in this window.

if I recall, our area got a decent snow last february from a similar setup

So I know the main thread gave up after seeing the Euro... but it really isn't that much worse than 06z and is similar to 00z, while being much better than some of yesterday's runs. I have a feeling that this can bump north a bit and that Central VA at least has a shot at a warning level event or at least a 1-3"/2-4" snow from the ULL like last february. What would kill it is a progressive/east trend. Being south of the bullseye is one thing, but it needs to go negative and amplify fast. It is a volatile setup, way more than last storm. Still a lot of disagreement at 60-84 hours.

It's more the ratios. The NBM is broken with respect to the ratios - the QPF would be better to look at. I saw in the Mid Atlantic forum that some areas had 40:1 ratios.

12z GEFS

within striking distance

At 90h the northern extent of the snow is EZF compared to Hampton Roads on the 00z run

CMC at 84h - a bit west and more negatively tilted compared to 00z still has the two surface lows idea but the one on the coast is stronger compared to 00z and the one offshore is weaker precip shield is slightly NW of 00z

Closed low over the TN Valley PNA ridge centered around Boise West based NAO block

00z GFS will be at least a hold

here is mean QPF and individual members it looks like there are fewer big hits in the individual members compared to 18z but QPF actually ticked up a bit on the mean

So at 72h... the RGEM looks even further west with the NS energy than even the GFS/NAM EDIT: it is flatter in front though