Spanks45

GFS might end up winning this one in the end....still out of Nam range, so plenty of time

48 degrees here, but quite chilly with the lower dews, high clouds, and a breeze. Looking forward to this weekend, hopefully we can get that to go right....

And it if was cold and snowy, it would be wrong....these past 2 years have been unreal. I am ready for Spring, lol....can we just flush all of the remaining cold air over to the other side of the planet? On the less pessimistic side of things, hopefully something breaks right the second half of the month....

Not going to lie, last year and so far this winter have sucked (I have 20.3" of snow over the past 2 years, when I average around 45" per year at my location, even 21/22 was 13"ish below normal)....Yes the pattern looked great in the 10-15 day range over the past few days, but we are now seeing the Pacific look less impressive as we get within the 10 day window. All the while, losing the nice sustained PNA spike. This is the same song and dance we have seen over the past 2 years, so at this point sadly I expect failure(hopefully wrong). Hopefully we score a snowstorm or 2, but I fully expect lots of potential that ends up being screwed up by 50 shortwaves dancing around each east of the Mississippi.... Lets get 1 big snowstorm and bring on Spring!

Hopefully more sun this time....solar production has horrendous so far this winter....at least my panels aren't caked in snow Honestly, time for Spring at this point. I noticed the models are finding ways to screw the pattern up already and we haven't even had the pattern flip yet. Pac going to crap as we get closer and too many shortwaves floating around creating interference. Should probably expect warm/wet, cold/dry pattern to close out the season.

I was actually impressed with how our ground was turning white with a rain/snow mix....just below the surface was still frozen from all the cold we had prior to all of our recent rain.

Golf ball sized flakes mixed in right now @ 175" 34.2⁰...flakes are so big, slush accumulates within minutes despite the above freezing temps. Almost 3/4 of an inch of rain so far

Might push you over 10 at least for the year...despite the clown look, I could almost go all in on nothing but mangled flakes before the dryslot moves in. The hill that I can see from my deck will probably be plastered white

Impressive resolution on that map, circled mylocation, right in the snow death valley of Southbury...quite impressive

Baseball @zone nation, 1pm tomorrow...should be an interesting drive if anything with the elevation changes from here to there Hoping for a positive bust, but expecting mostly white rain here

So Viginia isn't getting 3 ft this run? Model chaos, should be a fun couple of weeks

I would be ok with a 34⁰ snowfall....would be a nice surprise, a nice March snowfall in the heart of winter

Just from an observation stand point for this area(swct)...if the airmass that is currently outside is what we have to work with for most of our storm tomorrow, I can see how there will be little to any snow around here. Feels like an late March morning put there, birds are sing away too. Hopefully I will be eating these words tomorrow...

I mean if we hadn't just endured last year and this year so far, I would be just a tad excited looking at the GFS and HRRR...but right now I just assume they are both wrong and take the warmest, least snowy model

We need to make sure we have more inches of rain than inches of snow during another winter month....on schedule it seems

That map is exactly how the last 2 winters have gone down here....unreal and better yet the RGEM will be correct, on a clown map 48hr+....again, congrats to those north of Uptons forecast region

Assuming the 3k, rgem, and icon have the right idea...it is amazing how the weather keeps finding ways to not snow down here and this time with the single A models

When the RGEM and 3k are north and warm....its coming north

Well, looking at 12z today....I guess we have a consensus, at least around here at least. Little to no impact with more rain coming. OKX definitely knows how to forecast snow events around here, set the bar low and stay there. Thanks for the props on the sig, easy to read by all, if they want to anyways....

Too early and it lacks the cold, too late and it is too far SE.....we need the perfect timing, hopefully we can thread the needle this one time This Icon run seems to get in here quicker, precip here by Sunday morning

With the way this system is dancing around with the cold air to the north, SE is probably ok for now. Too early and its congrats PF, too late and its congrats to the fishes....As many have pointed out, very thread the needle situation....probably have to wait until Saturday 12z to get a better idea

We have chased a lot of snow around here recently that started around 180 hrs or so only to have it fall apart within 100 hrs....hopefully this continues to trend favorably at this point

Euro has pulled the rug out here within 24 hrs, so grain of salt for now

Looks like the Euro has it too....

One huge positive right now, its start precipitating around 108 hrs.....not 150. Almost time for the Nam to start showing 40" of snow