TowsonWeather

You don't see this every day...

This is like the 4th straight model with this kind of trend, and not one person has said "Caving to the GFS" ;-) In all seriousness, I love these trends this morning. Let's keep it going. Every little tick south could mean hours or more of snow vs. sleet/freezing rain.

Not really. It's just as accurate to say the Euro has incrementally moved to the GFS. The GFS, for better or for worse, has been one of the most consistent models over the last couple of days (once it finally figured out there was a storm for us, lol) in terms of how it sees the evolution of this thing unfolding. And yeah, the raw snowfall output has crept down a bit and the ice component crept up a bit, but the Euro (and some other models) have taken clear steps toward the GFS in terms of expanding the frozen precip shield more back to the S and SE and not being as aggressive with driving the low into Toledo and initiating a lower latitude transfer to the coast. (edited to add: I'm not ENDORSING the GFS - either this current solution or the model more generally - I'm just kind of puzzled by the extent to which people analyze model trends through their preconceptions. We all "know" the GFS is "bad" so we frame things through the prism of it "folding" even when better models have trended more towards it than otherwise...)

The models are dramatically better than they used to be. They are SO good that people now get pissed off and frustrated/disappointed when the storm they've been tracking for over a WEEK gives them just several inches and a sleet bomb instead of a foot or more. You know how remarkable it is that they can do this? The difference is, 15 years ago you wouldn't even KNOW there was a potential storm until a few days beforehand, and the amount of granular data like snow maps and soundings and whatnot simply wasn't widely available to you or me or anyone not a meteorologist. Any perception that the models are worse somehow is just that: perception. It's in your head. They are verifiably, objectively, and irrefutably dramatically better than they were even a relatively short time ago.

Ah yes, the ol' "Orlando to Bangor Blizzard Special."

Oh, I know, it's just especially noticeable to me for whatever reason.

I don't think LWX is updating their maps back and forth so dramatically based on individual GFS and Euro runs. Nothing explains that map with the more robust totals...it's weird.

Weird - that looks more like what they've had all along. Did someone let the intern log into the map posting computer and he went rogue?

I don't know what they're smoking, but I'm not mad at it, lol.

The GFS comes in very similar to it's 18Z run: "The cave is starting!" The EURO comes in much flatter and colder and looks a lot more like the GFS WRT snow totals: "EURO pretty much a hold." The clutching of narratives is weird, man. Hey, we could all see a rug pull tomorrow, a joyous trend to colder and snowier, or anything in between, but the model analysis tonight has been poor.

Maybe not wetter for Western areas, but DC and South Central MD are significantly wetter.

A hold? It's noticeably more snow south and east - and it looks a lot like (you ready for this?) the GFS at this point.

Brother, the folks to our south have cashed in several times since the last time Baltimore and the north Baltimore burbs got anything approaching a respectable storm. I haven't cracked 6 inches in a DECADE. Of course - of COURSE - I would dearly love for the entire region to get buried under 3-foot drifts of wind driven snow, but if St. Mary's has to get skunked for me to get 10 inches, I would throw them overboard so fast their heads would spin. A lot of the board angst and frustration is coming from folks in our area that are in an incredible snow drought and if a worst case scenario comes true and we end up with 4-5 inches and some slop, I'm not gonna pretend not to be incredibly disappointed. 10 inches and some sleet - woo! Pop the champagne! I'm all in. I don't need 2 feet to be happy. But yet another rug pull while places within driving distance get deep snow? It fucking sucks and there's no sugarcoating that.

I guess I'm a big dummy because I'm just not seeing any noteworthy evidence of a cave here. And let me be clear: I FULLY expect the GFS to cave some or all of the way to a Euro-like solution at some point. I'm just saying that, to my eye anyway, the differences folks are pointing to are so small and synoptically inconsequential as to be well within the normal run-to-run variability. It's actually remarkably consistent with the 18Z run. Again, to my eye. I fully acknowledge I could be missing something big.

I mean, I'm as skeptical as everyone else that this will verify, but you're reaching some here, I think. These are mostly noise level differences.

I literally could not remotely care less about Chicago LES - if you wanna discuss this further, do so in banter.

This could absolutely play out this way. But using the RGEM as your cliff-jumping last straw? lol...

Sure!

No one should be laughing at anyone. Nor should anyone be saying things like "Anyone laughing at Dr. U now?" when not a flake has fallen and the NWS office in Chicago is discussing their snow prospects like this:

I don't wanna bang on CWG, but wtf is this? https://x.com/capitalweather/status/2014307915096617399?s=20 Only an 85% chance of ONE inch of snow? lol...

I'm just gonna start calling it the "Gulf your Yermomma" and if anyone has an issue with it I'll say they're being disruptive and provocative.

I really wish they'd pick a different color for "ZOMGZ INCREDIBLY HEAVY SNOWZ!" than PINK, lol...always gives me that momentary "mixing!?" panic.

Tonight, unless I'm mistaken. Or that was what Millersville or one of the other Red Taggers was saying yesterday, anyway.