TowsonWeather

Baltimore fringed. Meh. Next.

We #abscond.

I should clarify, I am technically just south of Towson - about 300 yards N of the city/county line.

In Towson we got about 4 inches - maybe 4.5. Just flurries now.

How is this obvious troll still posting?

Hasn't the mean been between 4-6 for the last 60+ hours? Or are my eyes failing me?

The NAM has - without question - performed the worst of any model for this entire threat. If one more person talks about how the NAM has "done it again," I'm gonna lose it - lol

Yes, I too grow increasingly concerned as the models get better and better for the whole region.

It's just you. It's just you.

Pumpled.

Around 5 inches or so here in Towson. Tough to be super precise with temps and compaction and no snowboard.

Mark Ellinwood is the best snow mapper on these boards, bar none. His maps are consistently the best and most realistic imo. Agree with you on DT - often way too high.

Some of the frustration/pessimism from many in this forum is that despite a great pattern, multiple threats, and multiple WSWs, many of us are in that boat. Here in Towson, which usually does pretty well in the snow department (for Central MD, at least), our best event was 4 droopy inches over 3 days...and we just went from a 4-7-inch WSW to a slushy half inch of nothing. Favored spots N and W always do better - and that's to be expected - but the dichotomy is starker than usual, and some suburban locations that usually do respectably have been underperforming so far - and that's after several years of almost nothing. We need a forum-wide overperformer for morale, if nothing else, so seeing the first signs of concern for this already unusual event is simply going to evoke that "here we go again" feeling for a lotttt of folks.

People clearly took this to heart...

1. Agree. 2. Caveat: if you start wringing your hands and angsting about suppression again I'm gonna cut you.

At this point you HAVE to be just trolling... That's the more generous of the two explanations, anyway.

Far be it from me to EVER dismiss the Euro - but Imma go right ahead and dismiss the NAM (esp after 48 hours). I'm not sure it's much of a conundrum when all other guidance is in one camp and the Euro was nudging in that direction. Not to say that this can't get away from us still, just saying that, as I know you know, when it's "just you and the NAM," it's really just you - hehe.

One more shift like this one and half the subforum would be looking at a dramatically scaled down event...a few inches of WAA snow and then snizzle. AS DEPICTED it's still great. But yes, when 50 miles makes the difference between 2-3 inches and 15, that's nailbiter.

Yes we are. Shift this whole thing 75 miles S/SE and we all win. As it is, as depicted anyway, it's a nailbiter for many in this forum.

Exactly this.

First, it's more like 4-8. Second, the warmer air and rain would make the ground reality much lower. I think you'll find we can absoLUTEly complain about that if it ends up being right ;-)

This is a phenomenally stupid post. The big storm isn't "going away". You have to have a remarkable depth of ignorance about meteorology and modeling to think that the historic totals shown 5+ days out on one run of one model not verifying would be an example of a "failure" of modeling. Jesus.

You're 100% right that's been the trend. That's what we have to hope for, honestly. It's why I'm still pretty hopeful (and the fact that it's the Euro in our corner). But it's still disconcerting to see so many globals showing the way we typically fail in Miller Bs - and we'd definitely shouldn't ignore that if we want to be clear-eyed and objective about this.

Ugh. Why do I get the feeling the Euro is gonna do that thing is does...where it caves to lesser models, but only when it shows us getting big snow first.

120 looks pretty solid...I should stop trying to parse the B&W maps, lol.