vortex95

Have to get this off my chest! There is a lot of talk going around comparing this to the Blizzard of '78 or "will be like" the Blizzard of '78. To deflate the senseless click-bait hype and assuage fears, it will not be anything like the Blizzard of '78 when looking at the entire picture, and the details count here as well! Both from a meteorological and non-meteorological standpoint, this imminent storm will not reach the legendary status of 1978. I can say that w/ high confidence. Why?, b/c when you know history and circumstances, not only for storms, but also how society has changed, the picture becomes clear. In this post, I will talk about the more obvious and straightforward, the non-meteorological parts/factors Preparations leading up to a storm are *everything*, or at least a lot more that many think, as to lessening overall impact. As I have said before, a disaster is typically only as bad as the preparations, or lack of, before it. This does not mean very high impact still does not occur, but so much "bad" is averted or mitigated. The forecasts for the Blizzard of '78 were not that good overall, so many from the individual to local/state agencies were not prepared. This almost never happens anymore for storms, certainly not for the really big and high-end ones, and the science of forecasting and modelling have improved immensely over time. And the way we get information has also dramatically changed, so it is very hard *not* to know what is going on w/ the weather now. Yes, it has gone the other way w/ *too* much hype for every single event, no matter how small or typical, and that has its own share of issues, but we are hardly ever "caught by surprise," at least for big winter storms. So something like the Blizzard of '78 Rt 128 disaster w/ 1000s of ppl stuck and cars stranded resulting in the highway closed for a week, simply cannot happen now. Ppl know to stay off the roads and businesses closed down for the storm, so the road crews can do their job. So from what I said above, physically that made the Blizzard of '78 much worse, and also psychologically was huge b/c witnessing the region paralyzed like that is an unsettling thought, to say the least! Another aspect, snow removal has evolved over the decades, and we are much better at it. From better chemicals to put down on the road to the actual snow removal equipment itself to how it is all coordinated. We learned a lot from the Blizzard of '78 and many other blockbuster snowstorms since then, and that's a good thing! There are a lot more private contractors plowing now than 50 years ago, and things like those little Bobcat front-end loaders are ubiquitous now. Didn't see those much in the region through the 1980s for snow removal. Snow removal has become big business! And the general population knows ahead of time what is coming, so the shock and awe factor is much less. Ppl change their plans, stock up on supplies, and think of various contingencies, like if power goes out. This smooths out the impact of the storm psychologically, and again, that is a good thing!

No trees left in GHG after this!?

I bet CoastalWx had to go to the emergency room so he could get "calmed down!"

I don't think CoastalWx could handle that!!! LOL. Too much PT at once!

I don't think I have ever seen the HRRR this nuts w/ winds gusts this high over such a large area. Huge area of 65 kt + gusts. And you look how far NW the sfc freezing line gets (makes it to Weymouth), Some serious damage from wet paste S of BOS. I envision CoastalWx losing power or internet for an extended period. What will he do? Can't go the library b/c it will be closed! He'll have to drive around w/ his PC running in his car to find a WiFi hotspot! What about 5G? One thing I have found during big snowstorms, cell networks get extra taxed and way slow at times. And cell towers need power as well. Time to pull out a Telebit 56k modem for dial-up?!

Burlington the next town over from Woburn, so makes sense that total.

40" was common in eastern MA and RI, just did not have the degree of spotter/co-op observers back them. A fairly reliable measurement from someone I know got about 44" total in an open field in Woburn MA. Given the how the area between 128-495 NW of BOS tends to have a local precip max in many nor'easters, this is not unreasonable.

20" or more in single snowstorm in the Pioneer Valley is big, considering they get precip shadowed a lot!

I recall that well. OKX NWS explicitly forecast 24-36" for NYC, an all-time record snowfall. Even close to the event, there was not good agreement for that kind of snow for NYC, yet they bought the ECMWF completely (surprise, surprise), and it was massive fail. Yes, up to a foot fell in NYC, but the psychological impact alone of forecasting 24-36" for NYC is immense, and you simply do not do that unless you have a damn good reason to do so. And was forecasting a more modest 12-24" so hard? That still is a blockbuster for NYC and same preparations would be made. If it ends up more, so what? You end up looking better in the end.

The UA pattern is nothing even close to Feb 1978 for this event. The 500 evolution for for the Blizzard of 78 was extraordinary, unlike any other in the KU cases. You not only had a large cut-off low stall S of New England, but actually had a cut-off high at 500 form over western Canada at the same time. No other E Coast snowstorm case has this kind of evolution. And the Blizzard of 78 was a solid Miller B w/ a strong clipper system diving SE from the Great Lakes, and a secondary that formed N of the Bahamas. This one is a hybrid A-B it seems w/ a complex 500 pattern. No polar jet at all involved here. Much more progressive pattern for this upcoming storm. After the Blizzard of 78, that was it for the month for any sig precip in New England. Pattern become blocked.

Given the big winds forecast for this upcoming storm, some points of reference for winds for the region's biggest non-tropical storms, at least in recent decades. This is not all-inclusive, just what I recall off-hand. One note on the data, standard wind measurements are typically taken w/ the anemometer 10 m (33 ft) above the ground. That's how it is at airports for official NWS/FAA observations. However, at many other wx stations, such as NWS/NOS/privately-run marine sites or personal wx stations, the heights can vary a lot. Obviously, the higher the anemometer elevation from ground level, the higher the winds. The highest recorded gust I know of in the last 50 years at an official NWS/FAA site is 108 mph at the Blue Hill Observatory (MQE) on 3/29/1984. A gust of 97 mph was recorded on Martha's Vineyard in this storm. Truro MA gusted to 113 mph on 10/21/2021. 110 mph gust at Scituate MA 2/6/1978. Highest gust recorded at an NWS/FAA location for this storm was 93 mph at Chatham MA (CHH). Block Island gusted to 105 mph on 12/5/2005. A gust to 101 mph occurred at Wellfleet MA from this same storm. A gust to 97 mph at Falmouth MA (FMH) occurred on 4/19/1997. Seabrook NH gusted to 94 mph 2/25/2010. On this same day, Isles of Shoals (IOSN3) gusted to 91 mph. For BOS, the highest gust recorded for any type of storm since 1954 is 81 mph on 3/13/1993. BOS gusted to 79 mph on 2/6/1978 and 78 mph on 12/11/1992. PWM highest gust on record (since 1940) was set on 2/25/2010 w/ 78 mph, but it may have been higher since there was a power failure. Going back to the late 19th century, the greatest non-hurricane storm w/ the highest winds was "The Great Appalachian Storm" Nov 24-26, 1950. This was an inside runner for New England, so extraordinarily strong southerly winds occurred. What was most remarkable was the gust to 110 mph at Concord NH. Hartford CT had sustained winds of 70 mph w/ a peak gust of 100 mph. Such high wind values are exceptional for inland locations that are not elevated!

That was 3/27-29/1984. That storm across much of the South and East Coast was in a class by itself. 963 mb E of the Delmarva and G108mph at Blue Hill. Paste blizzard here w/ massive tree damage and power outages. Carolina tor outbreak its worst on record. One tor was 2.5 mi wide. A single supercell product 7 F4 tors, the record for most F4s from a single storm.

Bliz of 05 CoastalWx MAN stuff! LOL.

And how about this? Look at the DY2 SPC tstm outlook. How often do you see such a large area of general tstms outlooked on the COLD side coastal storm, never mind a full-fledged blizzard???? I can't recall such a large general tstm area for a KU! But if anyone knows something similar, please post!

One thing to keep in mind overall though. There have been a number of coastal storms since the Bliz of 78 w/ high-low pressure differences greater, and they were *not* anything like the Bliz of 78 for total snowfall or max wind gusts, so pressure difference alone does not tell the entire story. Still though, this will be a high-end event and I would not be surprised to see gusts 80-90 mph on the coast from the Delmarva to BOS.

Excellent observation. I did not even notice the strength of the high in this case. So that's 82 mb difference. Bliz of 78 was 64 mb. So for winds, this is of grave concern IMHO.

Well, you don't like the snowfall gradient GHG-Weymouth-Brockton-ORH! 14"???? That's way too little!!!! LOL.

Face it, you want the 18z HRRR to verify SO BAD! Geez, those Kuchera amount look like 3km NAM clown amounts, and it is far from done!

That's a concern for the real weenie rates in SNE. Will the peak RI well to the S initially preclude Bliz of '13 "everything falling out of the sky" rates!? Once deep occlusion takes place those wild rates come down.

I am just saying officially recorded at Logan in their obs. I'm sure it has exceed 70 kt in the BOS area a number of times 1955-1992 and 1994-2025.

BOS G70 kt Bliz of 93. No higher gusts since then and this was the strongest wind gust in BOS since G88 kt in Edna Sep 1954.